Ongoing VP TR, PART 2!
Hi all, apparently my previous thread may have gotten so long that it's causing issues for the website. So, here is a new thread to keep this going, and it also gives me an opportunity to provide a quick recap of how I've gotten to that point.
Background-
- former poker player; got in pre-2003 boom, printed money online until about 2007 when games got harder/I started making decent money
- took poker roll and transitioned to straight casino degen. Went thru a blackjack and craps phase
- Dad played progressively bigger and more at various Vegas casinos starting around 2005, settled on Wynn and gave them all of his action. Massive comps and Chairman's club status for Dad resulted
- I started playing VP around 2013, 2014? knowing it was one of the best casino games on offer; slagged off of parent's comp for years
- as I played more and bigger, Dad's host became my host
- Circa 2019-2021, went on the most massive sun run, +500k over that time period; basically played bigger, kept winning, played bigger, kept winning, etc
- 2022-now- basically have run cold and am trying to sustain my VP for the long term
Game of choice-
- Triple double bonus, preferring multiline and ultimate X
- will play craps, more often with buddies
- despise blackjack
Typical TR features stays at the Wynn, good food, gambling, +/- other stuff (shows, family coming with, etc)
That's probably a decent synopsis!
I do like and play spin poker but there are few things more irritating that having an amazing draw in spin and missing over, and over, and over, and over... and I have to say I've noticed the same on spin. I'm sure the math all works out, but one sure seems to draw at a gutshot straight and hit in all three spots an AWFUL LOT (coupled with missing over and over), and boy, when you hold one ace the other 3 aces seem to all come out at once,
Really enjoy the thread with all its honesty. Highly entertaining, every time! Hope you hit some big scores next trip, whenever and wherever that may be.
Question: I was wondering if you or anyone else knows if VP machines have to demonstrate that they "deal" randomly from a (digital) deck, or whether the machines are only audited to insure that the payouts are statistically in-line with the total expected payout from the respective pay tables over a large sequence of hands?
The more I play VP, the more I feel pretty sure that it is the aggregate payout outcomes that are true enough to pass audits, but that certain machines / games spit out the cards very differently, and in ways that are not card-deck random.
Put another way, is anyone ever required to check (a) the code as written, and (b) the code as executed to see that over, say, 1 million hands played the number of pairs dealt or trips hit from holding a pair is within a statistically acceptable range for a single deck?
To make an extreme example, you could still wind up with a 98% payout machine meeting its expectation of 98% (over a ton of hands) by having it deal a few extra Royal Flushes while intentionally killing the smaller draws to pairs, flushes, and straights. I'd just like to know how the VP machines are audited, if anyone knows.
Thanks again for the great thread...
You can find the requirements at gaming.nv.gov
I'd guess 14.040 is relevant
1. ...
2. Must use a random selection process to determine the game outcome of
each play of a game. The random selection process must meet 95 percent
confidence limits using a standard chi-squared test for goodness of fit.
(a) Each possible permutation or combination of game elements which produce
winning or losing game outcomes must be available for random selection at the
initiation of each play.
Version 7
(b) For gaming devices that are representative of live gambling games, the
mathematical probability of a symbol or other element appearing in a game
outcome must be equal to the mathematical probability of that symbol or element
occurring in the live gambling game. For other gaming devices, the mathematical
probability of a symbol appearing in a position in any game outcome must be
constant.
...
It's fairly easy to certify the random algorithms. And it's much easier to use and certify randomness with payout tables to produce a theoretical payback rate than to rig it. You're just seeing normal variance and applying human tendencies for attempting to discern patterns from inputs.
Precisely. Having not played DDB in forever, I only remembered holding the kicker was marginally wrong. No chance I could tell you how wrong other than it's not much. I just went back to Wizard of Odds and it looks like I gave up .6 units of expectation by doing that. If I had been dealt trip aces anywhere near expectation I'd be more upset at myself.
You can find the requirements at gaming.nv.gov
I'd guess 14.040 is relevant
It's fairly easy to certify the random algorithms. And it's much easier to use and certify randomness with payout tables to produce a theoretical payback rate than to rig it. You're just seeing normal variance and applying human tendencies for attempting to discern patterns from inputs.
Thanks for this. That's just what I was curious about. Much appreciated. The mirage of patterns in outcomes can seem so real at times...
also want to add that it'd be more difficult to program a biased machine where the edge would be in influencing draws than it would be to program an unbiased one where the edge is in the payouts
now, could there be a mistake where a machine designed to be unbiased were accidentally biased, yes - but whether or not internal Q&A would not detect or if it'd pass regulatory auditing is another thing
Thanks for posting, Leon. I am not a VP player, but I really enjoy your writing and your honesty. Plus the food and room porn is fabulous! So sorry about the run bad this trip.
