Should I call this river raise after the turn has checked through?
Hi guys,
I was playing at my regular $2/$5 place last night. There was one limp before it got to me in C/O and I opened to $25 with T♠8♠. The button, who's been playing a pretty solid game all day, 3bets to $70 off a $500 stack (and I have him covered). I call and the flop comes T♥8♣4♦. I check to him, he bets $50, I call. I realise I can raise at this point but I know he's gonna cbet close to range here, and I wanted to keep his bluffs in (and I was intending to check jam any safe turn if he fires again, so I can get the money in good vs. a likely overpair). However, the 3♠ turn checks through. The river comes the Q♦ and I figure I can get value here from AQ, KQ and other showdown-bound hands that pot-controlled on the turn. So I bet $125, and to my surprise he tank-raises to $375.
Hero...?
Before you go way down a GTO rabbit hole you need to look at preflop ranges and see if they make any sense. The two spots that gto are completely wildly off of real ranges are LP 3 bet spots (CO vs btn probably the furthest off), and IP cold call ranges (youre supposed to cold call super tight and strong, but nobody does that)
absolutely zero live players, even the very most aggressive ones, are 3 betting at correct frequencies CO vs BTN. Bt
Yes I agree that live play is a far cry from GTO, and that 3betting and cold calling ranges are vastly different from what they should be.
I also agree that vs the general low stakes player pool overfolding vs 3bets is definitely best. The reason I gave this villain action is because he was clearly a studied player who was aware of theory and in all likelihood 3betting a lot wider than the general player pool.
In my opinion most players at low stakes cbet 100% of their range in 3bet pots. Seeing as that range contains so much air, I don't see the logic in check-raising the flop. That's why my plan was to delay the check raise until the turn in this hand, because if he bets again on the turn I can be a lot more confident that he has a value hand that's not going to fold to the raise. I think there's a lot to be said for keeping the garbage section of his range in play - for example in this hand, because I didn't check-raise the flop, villain arrived at the river with ace-high and was inclined to turn it into a bluff raise. If I instead check-raise flop then it significantly narrows his range and he doesn't get to the turn/river with these weak hands.
I would guess that if villain's 3bet range is much tighter than game theory suggests, then attacking it on the flop with check-raises as you suggested with gutshots, bdfds, overs, random bottom pair would be risky. How do you come to the conclusion that this is higher EV than other options?
