ICM of the 100k flipout GGPOKER
I`ve been playing rush and cash for a while, and a large amount of my rakeback come in the 100k flipout. I was wondering if there is some calculations on the aprox. icm for, lets say, 5k chips, 10k chips, 20k chips... Because playing low stakes, that could be take into account in some hands (like calling shoves with K high flushes or something like that). Would by cool also to find out how much to play to maximize $/hour on that tournament (let`s say, stoping when reached 15k in chips `cause the icm of every chip after that is much lower).
I know the field differs one day from another, but let`s talk about it!
2 Replies
lol, you should just optimize your play, NOT based on chips you would start the 100k with.
Just play your best, and treat the flipout as a something extra.
Btw. for me [NL100 - NL200] flipout is maybe 2-5% of the RB. Most comes from normal rb and leaderboard.
Yeah, yeah, of course we must play the best we can. HOWEVER, considering most of the players don`t beat GG rake, and play for rakeback, you cannot disconsider the ggcare flipout.
So, I made some implementation of one algorithm to calcule an aprox. icm for the flipout (the algo is this: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/po...)
I put the prizes exactly, run the simulation 50k times (the change after that was minimal) and made some approximations on the stack sizes (I used around 40 reference values and filled all, the average stack remained the same) in order to save time. ( I took the stacks from today, wednesday - may vary on different days a lot) The results are:
Spoiler
119000 -> 70.9818
929000 -> 62.734
889000 -> 61.909
723000 -> 55.9697
721000 -> 57.0426
618000 -> 52.5962
580000 -> 52.158
577000 -> 51.577
535000 -> 49.8708
523000 -> 48.8485
513000 -> 49.1052
511000 -> 48.3836
477000 -> 48.0472
422000 -> 44.4424
360000 -> 41.4996
322000 -> 40.0679
296000 -> 38.7708
280000 -> 38.1196
260000 -> 36.4883
230000 -> 35.5086
215000 -> 34.0955
180000 -> 31.8345
160000 -> 30.012
133000 -> 27.9245
117000 -> 26.536
100000 -> 24.4228
92000 -> 23.5391
83000 -> 22.3067
75000 -> 21.3836
68000 -> 19.9165
63000 -> 19.2759
58000 -> 18.2689
50000 -> 16.3688
45000 -> 15.5988
40000 -> 14.3366
35000 -> 13.0873
31000 -> 12.1783
27000 -> 10.8097
23000 -> 9.58446
21000 -> 8.76944
19000 -> 8.0922
17000 -> 7.34084
16500 -> 7.1706
14000 -> 6.2696
12500 -> 5.71314
11000 -> 5.08284
9400 -> 4.38828
8400 -> 3.87216
7000 -> 3.35028
6000 -> 2.95544
5000 -> 2.36354
4200 -> 2.08978
2700 -> 1.39772
1500 -> 0.72474
500 -> 0.26324
I`m playing NL5 at the moment, and this is HUGE. I think we don`t have access to the algorithm to calcule the flipout stack conceive on a badbeat, but I`ll put a example from myself:
yesterday, playing NL5, 100BB deep.
Action get to the river, 4 to flush on board, I`m holding K high flush, vilan shoves (70BB, $3.5).
I call, lose to A high flush, and win 8.700 chips on GG flipout.
So, on NL5 we can sometimes have strong reads on opponents. But even so, If I have non chips on the flipout yet and I`m not playing too much a day, this is a profitable call even knowing the opponent hold the nuts! As on the graph, 8400 chips give around $3.8 in EV (8700 should be a little more).
Even if I have 11k chips already on the tournament, the gap to 18K is around $3, so with a small chance of bluff from the opponent, it's already a profitable call. Of course, the more chips I have, less profitable become the call (or if I grind too much and have a big chance of getting a big stack on the flipout anyway).
So, to summarize, I think small stake grinders on GG should take this into consideration. Specially if they play less than enough to, for shore, have a big big stack (I would say less than 6k hands a day or so).
If anyone have some suggestion or have some examples of how many chips you won in bigger stakes, please reply, I would love to discuss this.
