2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
PSA to anyone using Sleeper's auto sub feature. If you use a player as a potential auto sub, that player is locked for the rest of the week, even if the questionable player plays. I.e., anyone who used a player as an auto sub for Achane last night cannot use that designated auto sub player for any other starting spots the rest of this week. They're locked. Dumb.
I'll be ok. I still have Bryce :p
How do you think Tyreek will do ROS? I think he and the rest will still be elite once Skylar get a week of game prep.
I'd knock him down to Jefferson territory. He won't be the elite WR you thought you drafted. He'll have some underwhelming games and he'll have some spike weeks. They'll bring in another QB for sure. Ryan Tannehill makes some sense.
First round review.
1) CMC....BUST! I saw this coming a mile away and still took him. I finally got smart and started taking Lamb 1.01 at the end of August. The injury seal is broken. Mason acquitted himself nicely. Ten percent of my teams are basically dead.
2) Lamb...Should be fine
3) Hill....TBD but probable BUST. I'll wait to see if they make a big move for a competent QB.
4) Chase...TBD
5) Jefferson....Should have been going behind Bree
Bijan is going to have a great season. His usage was fantastic. Way too soon to worry about St. Brown.
I'd knock him down to Jefferson territory. He won't be the elite WR you thought you drafted. He'll have some underwhelming games and he'll have some spike weeks. They'll bring in another QB for sure. Ryan Tannehill makes some sense.
Probably accurate. I think they'll stick with Skylar though. He hasn't looked bad with some prep, including the playoff game @Buffalo two seasons ago.
Skylar is the guy if you think Tua retires and you are looking to draft a QB in 2025
If you want to win now, then getting Tannehill or even (yuck) Jimmy G would be better than Skylar.
Bijan is going to have a great season. His usage was fantastic. Way too soon to worry about St. Brown.
I'm not overly worried about ARSB. I just think he probably won't be having a career year if Jamo is gonna be getting those types of targets. I wish I would have had him behind Bijan and Breece.
Bijan will have a fine year either way. There was talk that the reason the Falcons took Penix is because they had buyers remorse for Cousins. I'd expect Cousins to look a lot better in game two but if he doesn't that's gonna hold Bijan and the rest of the team back.
Skylar is the guy if you think Tua retires and you are looking to draft a QB in 2025
If you want to win now, then getting Tannehill or even (yuck) Jimmy G would be better than Skylar.
I'll throw Jarret Stidham out as a dark horse for getting traded there.
What do you think Hill looks like with Tannehill or (yuck) Jimmy G?
Why not go full dark horse and see if the Dolphins can coax Brady out of retirement
Second round review.
The early second round should never have included...Harrison, Olave, Adams, Aiyuk, London. I have a very little bit of London in this range. The rest I only drafted in round 3. London made a little bit of sense with the new coaching staff and "better QB play" He still should have been taken no earlier than maybe pick 22. The others were all clear round three players.
The beginning of the second round should have been a mix of....Achane, Taylor, Barkley, Nico, Deebo, Kupp, Kyren, Evans. I had a pretty strong fade on Barkley which appears to be a disaster. There was a strange infatuation with Waddle this year. He should have been in the third as well. This is Tyreeks team. Were the Waddle people just praying that Hill got hurt or arrested? It turns out the real flat range should have started at the very end of round two.
The later second round should have included Puka, Nabers and then whomever from the flat range you want.
I think Mike Mcdaniels is gonna wear out his welcome pretty quick. When this team is fully healthy with it's studs he appears to be a genius. Sure they run some cute plays but they do so because they've got the players who can execute it. I've always thought Mcdaniels was a fraud. To me he is a creepy stoner.
I know they aren't proven NFL QBs but I think Fields or Lance would at least be fun to watch in the MIA offense.
CMC out again and IR under consideration. This is a far cry from the celebratory dancing most people were doing when they drew pick #1
2024 Jordan Mason = James Connor 2018.
CMC out again and IR under consideration. This is a far cry from the celebratory dancing most people were doing when they drew pick #1
I would not be shocked if he is shut down for the year. The fact that he hasn't played a down yet this year and has already been ruled out this week is very very bad. I never felt great drafting him. I wish I was able to go with my gut.
Full disclosure: I thought Lance would shine with some development under Kyle Shanahan and drafted him earlier than ADP in a keeper league. No need to read anything I post ever again :p
The biggest reason I was off CMC and mentioned it before wasn't just his age/injury history.
It was the fact that out of every single RB over the past 20ish years that led the league in touches the previous year did not do great the next season.
It's just really hard on the body.
The biggest reason I was off CMC and mentioned it before wasn't just his age/injury history.
It was the fact that out of every single RB over the past 20ish years that led the league in touches the previous year did not do great the next season.
It's just really hard on the body.
I didn’t think your take was crazy. It’s just really hard to predict injuries. I think the confirmation bias that people have around this stuff makes ppl a bit overconfident in their takes.
That doesn’t mean it’s wrong to be concerned, but it does mean you have to be careful about overconfidently predicting injuries
I didn’t think your take was crazy. It’s just really hard to predict injuries. I think the confirmation bias that people have around this stuff makes ppl a bit overconfident in their takes.
That doesn’t mean it’s wrong to be concerned, but it does mean you have to be careful about overconfidently predicting injuries
This is why I haven’t drafted guys like keenan Allen in past 3 years
Maybe twice out of 250 teams
The biggest reason I was off CMC and mentioned it before wasn't just his age/injury history.
It was the fact that out of every single RB over the past 20ish years that led the league in touches the previous year did not do great the next season.
It's just really hard on the body.
Even though I had a bad feeling about CMC I couldn't see passing on him if I had the chance. Any other player I would have chosen could go down with injury. Luckily most of the drafts I did were time box so nobody has Jordan Mason. My 8 BBM's are probably dead though.
