KQhh vs competent russian

Pre: you can go either way on 3b or flat. Think flat is fine
Flop: I think we are over playing raising TPGK here. Just flatting.
Turn:good
River: Price is too good to fold, and I expect to be good perhaps 30pct of the time.

What is your raising range on the flop?

Your story is pretty inconsistent. But V hasn’t shown much interest in the pot, too, despite calling the flop raise. We can rule out the lower sets.

It depends a lot on your image here.

I‘d tend to check/call a reasonable river bet. Of course V can still show up with an underpair here and will maybe check back river. In that case a bet would have been better. If you have been pretty active, bet, but it really sucks if he raises you - you will have to fold a lot.

River bet 20 to get a crying call from hands like TT and 5x. Those hands might spaz out cause 10% sizing.

3B pre. Check-raise flop and barrel off, or make a delayed c-bet on the turn if the flop checks through.

As played pre, just check-call flop, and check-raise turn, or lead river if turn checks through.

As played on flop, checking turn is fine, but I think we can bet bigger on the river. He'd probably bet turn with thick value when we check. I think I'd bet full pot.

I much prefer a squeeze; it's only a HJ open. You'll get called by suited hands you dominate, but fold out some offsuit Aces (plenty of these from HJ as opposed to earlier positions) and pocket pairs. No biggie though, calling is probably OK.

As played, flop is a bit optimistic multiway and his continuing range should be pretty strong with the fish behind. I wouldn't mind a small river bet on a blank, but the Jack hits a lot of the hands you'd be targeting for value ie JJ and QJ. My initial thought was I liked the bet, but just don't see that you're ahead 50% when called. AQ, KK and AA could all seek to pot control on the turn and I don't think you're getting called by AK. Does he always call with QT/TT/67?

What do you want to happen on the flop?
you think he calls a worse Q a lot? Calls JJ/TT?
You mainly trying to get CO to fold his 2-4 out draw?

What do you want to happen on the river?
You think V has QT/Q9/TT a lot on the river and calls?
With no bet on the turn it feels like V probably has way less A2/A3/76 hands and a lot more AA/KK/AQ/55/44 hands. QJ is nut joy.
Block bet maybe loses less than a check to AQ?
Go too small and you need to know how to react correctly to a raise. Does he never raise AQ if you bet 25? Does he never raise 76?

I probably check and have no idea what to do if he bets, even if it's like 25 I don't like it but can't fold.

Should have mentioned V sees me as bluffy and living on the edge of puntland.

Result:

He's not wrong.

I would raise pre when it's only 3 ways, yeah we can flat as well but I prefer flatting it if there were more callers or if we were deeper and the HJ's range was tighter than normal.

Why did you c/r the flop? Were you trying to fold everyone out (it seems that way since you checked back a blank turn). You're only helping a straight up player to play perfect and fold everything we're ahead of and calls/raises with everything that beats us.

Think I'm cool with the preflop flat. Basically just trying to get into a hand with the fish here.

I just check/call the flop and think check/raising is massive overplay. In a 3way pot with a fish the Villain shouldn't be getting too out-of-line with over cbetting but for this price / hand we can't consider folding yet.

Life really sucks when Villain calls our massive check/raise (especially with other guy still behind to act). I'm pretty much done with the hand at that point so I also check the turn.

Terrible river card as now a couple of his non-believing hands of JJ/QJ get there. Think I check again and probably don't even call a bet on this fairly drawless flop. Against a straightforward (and extremely calling stationish) opponent a very small blocking bet might not be horrible.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Lol'ed! 😀

Admittedly image matters. With my super nitty image I just don't see what worse hand pays off the river unless it is an extremely small bet. But with Banana's image a bet wouldn't be as horrible.

GclulessNLnoobG

I was somewhat breaking Banana's balls, assuming he can take a friendly ribbing.

But, many a truth was said in jest. Judging by his many posts here, I would expect he has a great table image to get paid with his big bets, and he can size up with thin value. We LAG-tards tend to recognize our own kind pretty easily.

You, on the other hand...I figure you're betting for value with Top 2 or better, and giving up with all your busted draws, so I don't think I'd pay you off if I was holding worse than a set, and I'd still expect you to show me 87 often enough to make me consider folding.

Re-reading this, if I'm being honest, I'm not sure what worse hands are calling our river bet. Maybe a non-believing QT or worse QX. But if V is going to bluff-catch with 1P, he could do it with any 1P that gets to the river.

So betting thin for value here really is all about our table image. If we're bluffing with our busted draws and total air, we should be value-betting, without worrying too much about what hands call. I think this might be a good spot to de-polarize, and go big with a merged range. It doesn't matter if we have KQ or 87 if we're trying to get looked up by any 1P.

At least, I think that's right.