Is this guy's call bad?

Is this guy's call bad?

https://www.liquidpoker.net/h/1099957

This can't be good right? Keep in mind there are only 15 people left, and I am 2nd in chips. My stack is pretty large. UTG raise from the only guy who has me covered. Allin from another before me. My range is OBVIOUSLY AK, JJ+. Probably QQ+ tbh.

And so surely the immediate thoughts are "well it's a $20 buyin tournament".

But, look at the guy's sharkscope: https://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Stati...

His results are insane. He's #1 in profit for the year by far. So... what is going on here? Does he know something I don't? Is this variance? Is my thought process off and my range should be substantially different than what I am thinking?

30 May 2024 at 01:45 AM
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7 Replies


TT isn't a great call in theory, my guess QQ is a call for sure and JJ is probably close to 0 EV.

But it also depends on what villain thinks of your range, and if he thinks it's too wide with a lot of stuff like 77 and AJ-ish hands, then TT probably becomes closer.. (probably still not a call though)

Your range in that spot should be somewhat wider than AK and JJ+, even with ICM. I don't have the tools to run it right now and would need to know other detail about the tournament (payout structure, other stacks) but my guess is our jam range should probably be more like TT+, AQ+, mostly because those hands dominate a lot of the 3-bet jam range and villain should be folding a ton.


I think jpgiro is on target with our basic range. I might include 99 and AJs because the first jammer has only like 13 blinds and would likely be jamming with 66+/AT+ and possibly some AXs hands (like A4s...)

The fact that UTG was jammed on twice after opening means that the TT call is highly questionable. I would be folding TT here and likely call JJ unless you guys have been tightish.

But it could also be that he is playing a bunch of tournies online at the same time and its only $20 and its bound to work sometimes.

Another thing to think about is your image. I was in a live tourney at Foxwoods many years ago and had about 1,000,000 chips. A guy shoved EP for like 9 blinds then a player who was very aggro jammed for like 400,000 chips. I had QQ (so not exactly TT) and I insta called. But I also would have insta called with TT and it would have been a good call because he had 99.


I would roughly estimate that your shoving range should look something like TT+/AK, with AQs being close. Against that range, TT would be clear fold in theory. I would suspect 1 of 3 reasons for the call if we assume V is a studied ICM player. 1 - based on your playing tendencies he suspects you will be jamming much wider than theory suggests, making his call reasonable. 2 - BTN player is clearly a wild player shoving too wide, and believes your shoving range would be properly adjusted to reflect that. 3 - he has many other active larger tournament decisions at the same time and are getting priority attention over a $20 tourney.


I don't think the the sharkscope is as impressive as you think it is - its more a decent player running well with one big win than someone who is really crushing - Av % beaten is 53.55 late finishes (TOP 10%) is 9.6%


by oldgoat P

I don't think the the sharkscope is as impressive as you think it is - its more a decent player running well with one big win than someone who is really crushing - Av % beaten is 53.55 late finishes (TOP 10%) is 9.6%

I mean, it seems pretty consistent to me, although the results are obviously distorted by one cash.

As far as the hand goes, the initial shove is for 6.5BB and then your shove is so large-- 43.5BB-- he may have just figured your range is AK exactly. Would you rip KK/AA for this size or 3-bet smaller? Would you even just rip JJ/QQ for this size vs. an UTG raise and 3-bet shove, or would you flat or 3-bet smaller?


by nath P

I mean, it seems pretty consistent to me, although the results are obviously distorted by one cash.

As far as the hand goes, the initial shove is for 6.5BB and then your shove is so large-- 43.5BB-- he may have just figured your range is AK exactly. Would you rip KK/AA for this size or 3-bet smaller? Would you even just rip JJ/QQ for this size vs. an UTG raise and 3-bet shove, or would you flat or 3-bet smaller?

I think the blinds are 3000/6000 so the first jam is 13 bb's. So the 43.5 bb jam is the only thing that can be done here. I would assume that any type of minraise would be AA only (maybe KK) so I wouldn't do it. It also would be a pot committing raise if UTG jammed.


Ugh, I misread the blind level the first time and corrected it in the OP's stack but not the short stack.

I guess then villain does not think OP's range is JJ+/AK here. TT is also the inflection point where pairs jump in equity vs. overcards - you're over 57% vs. AKo with it, which isn't even really flipping anymore. Maybe villain thought your range was more like 88+/AQ+.


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