$50, Bottom set, river decision
I have villain marketed as a bit aggro and loose (not bad, not good, we don't have enough info on them). Not any other significant reads. We are in the final "round" (day 2).
Hero has ~75BB
Villain has ~72BB
We are 7 handed and avg. stack is about 28BB, we are deepish in the money, but no pay jumps
Preflop: Hero has 2 ♥ 2♣ UTG
Hero opens to 2BB, 2 folds, CO (villain)calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB folds
Flop: J♦ T♠ 2♦
Sb checks, Hero bets 2.5BB, Villain calls, SB calls
Turn: A♥
Sb checks, Hero bets 8BB, CO calls, SB folds
River: 4 ♣ (Pot is 33 BB)
Hero?
In this spot, are you bet/calling? Check/shoving? Check/calling?
We can get called by worse, but there are draws that missed. 2 pairs will probably always bet the river (I think JT goes for a value bet)
3 Replies
Not an easy place to be. I don't really feel comfortable with any of our choices.
Check/call minimizes our losses vs KQ but does Villain really not raise with KQ on the turn (because we can have a flush draw)? It does allow Villain to bluff with flush draws but draws with A♦ likely don't bet the river anyway (unless it is specifically A♦4♦). It is possible that Villain didn't raise with AJ/AT on the turn out of fear we have KQ and if we check the river AJ/AT would be bet at about 16 to 20 bb's. I don't think JT is a real possibility because it would raise the flop virtually 100% of the time.
If we block bet at about 8 bb's we do get called with Ax a lot especially AJ/AT and JT will always call. A raise though would be at about 24 bb's and I think we would always have to call because AJ/AT would think we have like AK/AQ and want to raise at least sometimes, some flush draws with no A would bluff and KQ would have already raised a bit on the turn.
If we bet 24 bb's to 32 bb's I think we would have to fold to a jam which would be a bluff not that much of the time. I think A♦X♦ hands would almost always just cry call there or fold. Smaller flush draws that didn't get there could bluff some especially if our bet was a polarizing 32 bb's but because we can have KQ I think Villain will under bluff so I would fold.
I really have no idea what I would do in this spot. I think I would just go with my gut at the time. In reality I have mostly check/called and Villain checks back most of the time and I win. Now I would likely block bet more than check but I would call the raises so will lose to KQ a bit and win 8 bb's vs Ax a bit more. The choice I like the most but never do is bet 32 bb's to make it look like we could be 3-barrel bluffing (which is rarish because we should have a lot of Ax) so we get some crying calls but I can't function after I fold to a bluff and he shows me K♦9♦...
Would bet fairly aggressively here - get calls from AJ/AT/AQ/ maybe some other Ax. Most diamonds have a pair here so you're better off betting, Would most likely bet/fold.
I'd just bet whatever I think two pair will call with.
I don't think there are that many missed draws on this board, unless he's calling twice with Q9 or 98 with no diamonds. Almost every diamond draw that's realistic here has at least a pair, and I wouldn't be that comfortable check-raising on a board where we technically have the sixth nuts (even if a couple of those combos are very unlikely).
