$500 wsop event my horses hand

To fully analyze this hand, your horse needs to say why he checked the flop on such a wet board. Does the button have the propensity to bet every time he is checked to? If that is the case and BB might have picked up on that as well, that needs to factor into the flop decision.

Ya I didn’t like the flop check either… but I believe he said for deception and to trap.

I think that's reasonable and as such now he needs to call off. BB likely raises a non-allin amount (like 9-12k) with straights/sets (or even calls as a trap sometimes) and figures to have plenty of combo draws/88/99/maybe TT (if he doesn't squeeze that pre) in his range as well so think we have to go with it.

Do we really think BB has those middling pairs pre… feels like population tendency is to jam those… I think two pair combos and combo draws are going to comprise bb range. Feels like a spot where we’re either flipping as a slight favorite or drawing slim.

I could go either way though bc pot odds wise our equity is probably in ok shape vs the entirety of villains range so it might be +ev to call.

I agree that made hands are less likely to jam/more likely to trap. A call there looks stronger in a weird way.

Talked to one pro who said he’d snap fold given two aggressions towards the pot.

I’m still ambivalent here…

I agree with most of your sentiments, I think sometimes rec players spaz out when they "sense weakness" from our line (i.e the flop X with KK) and could absolutely have 88/99 and just think they are jamming for value against button and not worried about us. If the BB is a good player, I tend to agree more with your sentiment on 2 pairs/combo draws, which in that case, I wouldn't mind folding against at all. Recs might not even defend 74/64 hands here and would likely only have 67 when it comes to the 2 pair combos whereas regs will have all the 2 pair combos and almost never have TT, maybe not 99.

I've found over the years at WSOP the spots I always get into most trouble with are when the rec player clearly thinks they have the best hand but I'm unsure if they're acutely aware of the strength of my hand (like if he were to have 88/99 here) Tough spot, what's starting stack here? If it was situation where we had a couple starting stacks in a super soft event I'm more inclined to fold but I'm guessing we aren't far from starting in this event.

This is the 2nd post in last couple of days where PFR checked an overpair on a low connected board with only 20bb effective.

Fail.

IMO multiway you should play much more straightforwardly in general. In this particular spot, with this hand and this board at this stack depth, there are too many bad cards you don't want to see and hands you don't want to realize their equity for free.

As for the calling decision, it really depends entirely on what I think of villains-- I've seen guys just shove sets here live-- but I think calling is likely correct. Even dealing with guys like that, I think the covering stack would be less likely to shove because they're not so worried about protecting their tournament life.

Some more info:

-40k starting stack

-BU tendency to be aggro and bet everything when checked to

—-

As far as checking flop ya I’d prefer a bet. But I also think it’s fine to check for deception and to mix.

It’s probably not necessary to be balanced in small buy in events like this though so idk.

Yeah I don't think mixing strategies is bad in a vacuum, it's just a combination of, as you said, not really being necessary in an event of this size and where you probably won't see these people again, and the particular hand we have-- not even a club in hand-- and stack size. J62r, sure, I might check sometimes. Here, where I might be able to get the money in against a hand like one pair and a weak draw, or a draw with overs that aren't live-- or, at the least, where I can charge those hands to realize their equity-- I'd rather bet.

As played, if BB is aware of button's tendency to always bet when checked to, then I'm certainly getting it in here.

Check on the flop by Horse is standard given it is against 2 players, horse is OOP and the flop heavily favors the BB. If just one player bets then a c/r can be the option.

Horse is under repping his hand. The other players will think Horse has AT+/KJ+/QJ type hands without a flush draw and most likely without a BDFD.

BB's jam is most likely some kind of semi-bluff which could contain many different combos of SD, gutter, pair, and FD. However it could be a set or two pair or even a flopped straight.

Always a tough spot with QQ+ especially because no BDFD.

I probably call because we under repped and its a WSOP $500 where players tend to be wild. But we are flipping at best so I would get a fold.

Clear as mud bro lol.

BB has already checked, and this flop is not one we want to give free cards on. It's also one we can go with a more polarized sizing.

But all the standard lines and reasoning for spots like this are usually heads-up. 3 ways and at 40BB (I think I misread the first time) you might want to play more straightforwardly and just bet. It really sucks when it checks through and an 8, 5, 3, or club comes!

I mean, you're defeating the point of under-repping your hand if you just fold here.

Same horse made day 2 of colossus!

That's why I said I would probably call...