Spew or Standard

If he's TAG he should have a pretty small range for making this play, right? Like AQ+, TT-KK (With AA we expect he mostly 3-bets it). We're 36-64 against that range, so we're definately not in good shape.

Online I would expect players to have at least AJs from time to time and perhaps even 88/99. We would need those hands in his range also I think, and even then because of the pot odds I think it's not good enough (it's 41-59)

Isn't AQ the most typical hand for which we should follow the "When in doubt: Fold"-rule?

What was the effective stacks when you folded AQ the first time? I'm quite sure you should always call as long as they are say about 50bb or more, even against TAG-player. We can't fold that much of our opening range I believe without being exploitable against aggresive players.

Thanks. I think V's range is much wider even if he is TAG when we open in the BU and V is on SB. My best estimate for this TAG player would be more like 88-KK, ATs+, AQ, and potentially some Axs as bluffs). I think I am call against that range. But I might be ranging this situation poorly. I also thought his range might be wider in that his 3! kept working on me.

I folded AQ earlier due to position differences. I think we were about 60 bbs eff, but it might have been less. But he had been pretty snug until then, but his demeanor led me to believe he knew what he was doing, and he popped my UTG +1 bet. At that point I wanted to avoid a spot where I hit top pair and was behind, as the table was very soft and thought no need to take that risk.

My initial reaction is to call with AQ. But then I've been knocked out with AQ in late spots prior to the bubble by going all in.

First time this trip it was late Day 1 Mini Main when a woman opened UTG+1 to 3x. I had just been moved to the table I had 15 bb's and 3-bet jammed. She had AA.

Second time I was EP and raised, a guy who had 3-bet a lot and folded to 4 bets 3 bet 4x my bet. Without thinking I jammed with 24 blinds with AQ. This was the Day 3 of the Main event about 600 players from the money. He had AA. Both times I really thought it was right until it occurred to me that the raises I was up against were very large. These players wanted to get it in.

So I think your TAG is raising large for several possible reasons. The first is because he wants to be all in against whatever hand you have. I am folding AQ now in this spot. If Villain has 88-QQ we are actually getting very close to a break even spot since we would be 46% to win. Villain could have KK here and just not want to see an A on the flop OOP in a huge pot. Villain will often have AK here because he doesn't want to 3-bet, get called, and play a large pot OOP without a pair. And then there are people who have AA and just want to get it in.

I'm tired of bouncing with AQ somewhat close to the money.

When he shoves you have 29,5 BB left. The pot assuming a BB ante should be 36 (1+1+0,5+2,5+31). So if you call the pot will be 65,5 BB.

29,5/36 = 0,45 = you need 45% equity against his range to break even on the call.

Against 88-KK, ATs+, AQo+ you have only a 41,3% equity.

Adding a few bluffs like A4s, A5s, KTs) almost reach the B/E-point. But we would like to have at least 2-3% better equity to risk our tournament life in this spot, wouldn't we? ICM considerations also shouldn't be zero here, since we are approaching the bubble.

If instead the effective stacks had been 20 bb the equity needed for a B/E call would have been around 41% and we would probably also assign TAG-villain a bit wider range. So probably a call there.

This makes sense. But I did range him too narrow:

Yeah, the jamming ranges suggested seem unreasonably tight to me button vs. SB.

Given description of live V here, how would you range his shove?

Does he ever shove AJ for 30bb?

30+ is certainly on the high side and going to change ranges a bit. I don't think AJo is impossible given the positions-- certainly if we were opening from EP I'd be more inclined to fold depending on where the shove came from. If he understands GTO ranges well then his shoving range should include some portion of weaker suited aces, big offsuit aces, and suited broadway hands, as well as some AKo and pairs. (AKs should be making a standard 3-bet here.)

Button vs sb. I think we have to call. Would be nice if it was a looser opponent bc we find some of those spicy jams like 78dd, j10cc, etc etc. against a tag, I think A-10 or A-j is going to be bottom and we run into a lot of under pairs to our AQ.

I think we gotta call. If we run into day QQ through AA, or AK: just bad luck. He’s prolly
Doing this with AJ which is a pip worse than our hand so gotta take this spot. Idc if he’s tab- button vs sb; hands worse than AQ get to shove and pick up say 4bb uncontested a lot against a most likely wide button open range.