Top pair Flush draw

Sick spot. I would share the same fear that you are behind one player and against the nut draw on the other. But I've lead these down before only to see something 78ss and a worse Q. However, even if you think you have a big edge if this is a big field MTT, then you call as you need to really build a stack.

Weak cbet and a bunch of calls 30k in middle HJ can have all kinds of stuff, we have great equity against everything, easy cover everyone and are getting a good price so we just gii imho.

We don't necessarily have great equity once the button over-shoves. Could be against something like hijack nut flush draw and button set. OTOH we could be in a hilariously good spot if we're somehow against Ax of spades and JsTs.

If it's just one player it's a pretty easy call. Real question for me is just what the button's range for shoving here is. We only have like 25% equity against a set, never mind whatever the hijack has.

I still haven't made up my mind. It's potentially a huge pot but I'm not even sure our two-pair outs will be good a lot of the time.

Your dream scenario is a good one, but we are still only 46% there.

Yeah, but that's fine getting better than 2:1.

Sure, it ;s great, but I'd guess that exact scenario is about 1:200. It really doesn't add enough EV to counter the times we are in the bad place; NFD and any better made hand. That leaves us almost zero equity.

I think it depends on the strength of the players. If they're loose and bad I wouldn't be surprised to see two worse draws. If they're GTO I would fold here.

OP, what was the buyin and what was your read on the players?

Do we really see someone calling pre with Q9, Q6 or 96? 96s...maybe but two Qs are already accounted for so the other hands are unlikely (and Q9 is already bad and Q6 would be downright awful).
Do we see someone dumping 62 or 75BBs respectively on a weaker Q without a flush draw - particularly as an overshove?
Do we see someone overshoving a 75BB stack on a weaker flush draw?

I'd argue the answer to all of that is 'no' most of the time. Hero has no RoR, less than a tenth of his stack invested but would likely have his stack crippled. I'd pull the nit card (reluctantly) and fold. If hero really has an edge then there will be more clear cut spots.

Well, I didn't say that it was likely, or even that he should call.

Generally, I would always like to gii in a tournament setting with top pair and a good flush draw when heads up. As played, I am going nowhere against two late position shoves. You could be drawing dead against the nf and a set, but that just seems unlikely. Plus the first shover puts in 2x the pot, doesn’t sound like a nut hand to me.

I think reads play a large part - if the shovers are rocks….but the huge stack with a win overrides my concerns and it only takes 60 percent of my stack.

I have folded in similar spots because we don't have the nut flush draw and pre-flop callers will call a lot with AXs type hands.

But the thing here is that if somebody has AQ then it blocks a little of the AXs hands. And we have a K high flush draw and top pair... I do think we could be up against two sets.

At Foxwoods about 15 years ago I had QJs on 873 flop with 2 of my suit. It went bet raise then I called then a jam then another jam. I folded because I thought I was up against a better flush draw and a set so my overcards were no good. But I was up against 88 and 77 and hit a flush on the river.

Here there are fewer better flushes because only AXs is better. Also there are 3 combos of straight flush draws and 4 combos of flush draws/gutters that we are way ahead of.

Our pot odds are better than 3:1 so we need to win 25% of the time to break even. I think I call here especially because we only lose 24k if we beat BTN and lose to HJ. Also after I folded QJs at FW I was so tilted that I hadn't called I didn't last much longer,.. The other reason I call here is that I don't think an A high flush draw would jam much of the time. And BTN doesn't gain much by jamming with an A high flush draw (I would call if I was going to play it so it would incentivize others to call).

So in this hand I decide to fold.

The buy in was a £50 game.

after I folded the other player left to act called

The HJ had AQ
BTN had Q9
and finally caller had 10s8s

Turn was 9s

River 7s

I think the main reason for my fold was the fact I had a lot of chips and didn't want to risk that stack vs a bad table who I think I can outplay

This game is rigged then 😀

I assume Q9 guy turned a boat and T8s guy rivered a straight flush. So you made a decision that worked out very well for you because you would have been drawing dead on the river.

I think folding is OK after thinking about it because there is always going to be at least one player who is going to be ahead of you (like AQ, Q9, and 66/99 also possibilities) so even if your flush draw is ahead of all others you are still not a favorite and in this case not close really to being a favorite here. You would have been +EV to call at about 34% vs the 3 other players where the pot odds would have been like 4:1. Had you been up against just the first two players to jam you would have had close to 46% chance to win it all. We do drop to about 12% chance to win if one of the players has AXs and the other has Q9. And we drop to about 3% chance to win if we are up against AXs and 99...

Ultimately why I now typically call in these spots is that I want to go deep and this is the way to do it at +EV

depends on player reads

haha sorry not spades was 9