dicey spot
[converted_hand][hand_history]Yatahay Network - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
BTN: $254.92 (127.5 bb)
SB: $235.53 (117.8 bb)
BB: $459.70 (229.9 bb)
UTG: $255.23 (127.6 bb)
Hero (MP): $287.73 (143.9 bb)
CO: $200.00 (100 bb)
SB posts $1.00, BB posts $2.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has J♦ J♥
fold, Hero raises to $5.00, CO calls $5.00, 2 folds, BB calls $3.00
Flop: ($16.00, 3 players) 9♦ 8♥ 4♥
BB checks, Hero bets $10.56, fold, BB raises to $29.12, Hero calls $18.56
Turn: ($74.24, 2 players) 3♥
BB bets $28.68, Hero calls $28.68
River: ($131.60, 2 players)
Flop: standard bet i believe 3 ways as there are alot of bad turns so need equity protection for me/denial for villains . IF HU then possible check with J♥ and bet without to unblock his FD,SD combos.
Once X-R'd: i think if CO calls my flop bet, BB x-r then i can safely fold? but being HU i think BB has alot of combo draws ( and range advantage) so i have to defend here.
Turn: His Size down on turn is sus, if he was setting up a river jam i would expect to see 60-80% pot here. Also, even with smaller sizing, whats our play for river if we call? call down on heart, J, 2,3? if he checks on any river im just taking the showdown here. thats what intuition tells me anyway.
thoughts on all streets welcome..
3 Replies
Mostly Xing range multiway is a fairly gto-ish and robust way to play. Not least because when this happens we have no idea where we are and we've still got two streets vs this suddenly uncapped and potentially violent range. Checking or even X-raising fixes this. And if CO doesn't open the betting we're in a much better spot on the turn.
AP, I'm not sure. We probably aren't getting odds to call the turn with a very mediocre nutted hand if we hit. Hard to believe this is A9 or air enough to be better than folding.
Mostly Xing range multiway is a fairly gto-ish and robust way to play. Not least because when this happens we have no idea where we are and we've still got two streets vs this suddenly uncapped and potentially violent range. Checking or even X-raising fixes this. And if CO doesn't open the betting we're in a much better spot on the turn.
AP, I'm not sure. We probably aren't getting odds to call the turn with a very mediocre nutted hand if w
this was my line of thinking as well OTT, vs a larger bet i believe folding > calling. but this down bet on turn made it an interesting spot. ( which is why i posted it) from villains POV, if you have set, you want to get max from my ov pairs with a heart(TT+) so you would want to bet a little bigger, atleast hp i would assume. same for made flush, it almost seems as if hes setting up a bet/fold sizing? like he doesnt want to bet big and be forced to a decision.
flop idk, i didnt run a sim but i bet your right. x-ing range is prob monkers suggestion. that doesnt mean its right though when you consider most players ( even here at 200nl) wont play that way. like monker will have CO betting pretty linear here but in practice CO is prob polarized to betting FDs,SDs and sets. Also monker has almost 0% flat range CO v MP ( this i know) so were already starting off in a section of the tree that i would have to modify.
i wouldn’t read too much on the turn size. most of the betting range OTT continues with block size in theory.
also something to note abt flop cbet size MW. it’s a dynamic board where there are a lot of turns that diminish the strength of a one-pair holding like yours. EQs are gonna run much closer with 2 other players in the hand, if u pump it OTF you’re gonna filter your opponents into a very strong range.
