to lead or not to lead
[converted_hand][hand_history]Yatahay Network - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
BTN: $168.45 (84.2 bb)
SB: $200.00 (100 bb)
BB: $203.00 (101.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $305.07 (152.5 bb)
MP: $304.85 (152.4 bb)
CO: $284.78 (142.4 bb)
SB posts $1.00, BB posts $2.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 8♣ 8♠
Hero raises to $5.00, fold, CO raises to $18.00, 3 folds, Hero calls $13.00
Flop: ($39.00, 2 players) 7♠ Q♣ J♠
Hero checks, CO bets $12.87, Hero calls $12.87
Turn: ($64.74, 2 players) K♠
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($64.74, 2 players) 8♦
[color="red"]Hero ??
I dont always flat mid pairs, im mostly folding but this player is 27/22 with agg% of 49 over 260 hands. which sample is small but thats pretty high agg so i lean towards him barrelling/probing at too high of frequency. avg for pool with 50k sample is 27% with majority between 20-30%.
that being said, do we lead river and if so what size?
9 Replies
That is meaningless stats over such small sample.
Not sure if you can even call pre vs 9bb. Flop is pure fold, you beat almost no hands in his range and if he is that aggressive he will just keep betting and you'll be forced to fold.
Lead small makes a lot of sense to get calls from any marginal 1 pair or weak 2p hands that will check back the river.
That is meaningless stats over such small sample.
Not sure if you can even call pre vs 9bb. Flop is pure fold, you beat almost no hands in his range and if he is that aggressive he will just keep betting and you'll be forced to fold.
I agree with all this.
b10 river oop 3bp after xc xx is often pretty good. Tougher to play against than x.
Options are block or XR the river. Given slight read I lean towards the XR because they might end up out-levelling themselves and potentially overcall their merged stuff.
I think the hand is wp personally. We should call 88 pre sometimes and w/8♠ we have to call flop.
River: ($64.74, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets $64.74, CO raises to $161.85, Hero ??
i was debating leading small or pot in hand. i decided not to bet small and let his 1p hands get a cheap showdown now im in a pickle. lol
River: ($64.74, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets $64.74, CO raises to $161.85, Hero ??
i was debating leading small or pot in hand. i decided not to bet small and let his 1p hands get a cheap showdown now im in a pickle. lol
I think if you’re going to have two sizes on the river you should leave smaller for sets and pot for straights and flushes + JT/QT bluffs
Might want to just have an all in lead depending on the line
Wouldn’t be surprised if they show up with top and middle set here or better a lot
River: ($64.74, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets $64.74, CO raises to $161.85, Hero calls $97.11
Spoiler
Results: $388.44 pot ($2.76 rake)
Final Board: 7♠ Q♣ J♠ K♠ 8♦
Hero shows 8♣ 8♠: (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 55%, Flop 58%, Turn 5%)
CO shows K♥ A♠: (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 45%, Flop 42%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins $385.44
I think your river call was good vs an aggro opponent. You only need to win 25% to break even. An aggro villain could take this line with AK, AA, possibly 77 and maybe some AsX combos as bluffs in addition to the obvious value combos (QQ, JJ, AsXs). IÂ’m not sure you should have gotten to this point though. Calling that flop bet seems loose; the flop hits villainÂ’s 3 bet range, especially an aggro villain. Villain also has a lot of pairs higher than your 88 in his three bet range, so IMO folding the flop was probably correct.
Preflop and flop are marginal. River I like a lead of 1/3 pot. I might size up to 1/2 pot if I feel like they're going to station more. Given the size that you chose facing the raise, I think you'll be beat too often to call that. You should have plenty of flushes to call with instead.
49% aggression frequency isn't too high. In fact, I believe that's a pretty good frequency to have. Mine is 57.3% and a lot of the other regs are around that percent as well. His PFR and VPIP are that of a solid reg.
I'm not really a fan of his raise, because I think when players river probe for a pot sized bet in a 3-bet pot they are extremely reluctant to fold and thus should be under bluffed without a larger sample or some good reads.
