2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Yes, Florida is fully republican today not a purple state anymore.
Cuba might have been a reasonable example when Florida was very tight rep v Dem, not today.
What I mean is democrats could reverse all cuban policies without any cost for them in the electoral college today, and they had a trifecta recently and decided not to do so
If a model predicts that there is an x% chance of Trump winning, how is that different to an x% chance of a football team winning a match or whatever?
But aren't those wildly different, at least really close to the election? Unknowns in football are variance during the game, in polling it's lack of data and accuracy of models. If you could do perfect polling with perfect model for interpreting the results in the morning of the election, you'd be right extremely often. Can't do the same with football even with perfect information (unless you make a perfect call to the coach)
Man that press conference was some kinda something even by trump standards
But aren't those wildly different, at least really close to the election? Unknowns in football are variance during the game, in polling it's lack of data and accuracy of models. If you could do perfect polling with perfect model for interpreting the results in the morning of the election, you'd be right extremely often. Can't do the same with football even with perfect information (unless you make a perfect call to the coach)
I guess it comes down to the nature of what the % probability is measuring. In some cases, it's measuring absence of information which would lead to a perfect prediction, in other cases, it's measuring the fact that even with perfect information, there is an element of variance involved, and in other cases it's a combination.
For example, we know that the probability of the bottom card at the bottom of a freshly shuffled deck being a spade is 1/4. No amount of additional information (assuming we are not allowed to examine the composition of the deck in any way) is going to improve that estimate. It will always be 1/4.
On the other hand, we get to the river and villain jams. We suspect he is doing this 2/3 of the time for value and 1/3 of the time as a bluff. However, we notice that he took a bite of his oreo, so we improve our estimate to 3/4 value 1/4 bluff. There might be further information available to us that helps us improve our estimate even further.
I don't know if I've explained what I mean very well, but I guess you're saying that the football match situation is more like the first example and election polling is more like the second?
I guess it comes down to what the % probability is measuring. In some cases, it's measuring absence of information which would lead to a perfect prediction, in other cases, it's measuring the fact that even with perfect information, there is an element of variance involved, and in other cases it's a combination.
For example, we know that the probability of the bottom card at the bottom of a freshly shuffled deck being a spade is 1/4. No amou
Yep pretty much what I meant, if bad card is 25% to come and it hits not much there to do, if a model says candidate 75% for X to win and they lose, there might be bad modelling involved or missing information that could have been used or obtained. Wasn't really getting to any real message there, just that I don't think "it was 3 to 1 so the favorite will lose quite often" isn't imo that helpful mental model to rate the model accuracy in a vacuum as the odds themselves are partly a reflection of the lack of accuracy of the models and information and not some underlying variance or hidden undetectable information in the world (while obviously perfect modelling and information is impossible)
I thought it was relatively good. He looked good, sounded good. Just some minor unhinged rambling here and there. Seemed to have told a below average number of lies
Yeah I was expecting more, proud of Donny there how while getting his ass kicked bigly he hasn't really gone off the rails as badly I thought he'd be. Yet.
Yes, Florida is fully republican today not a purple state anymore.
Cuba might have been a reasonable example when Florida was very tight rep v Dem, not today.
What I mean is democrats could reverse all cuban policies without any cost for them in the electoral college today, and they had a trifecta recently and decided not to do so
luciom, florida has 13 million registered voters right now
there are 2 million cuban americans who are basically 55/45 split in voting
if someone were to do something to mobilize those cubans to not only voting dramatically for one side but also getting other unregistered cubans to go out and vote they can determine the winner of the state election
trump won florida by 400,000 votes, if he lost the cubans he'd lose florida in a landslide not only losing several hundred thousand votes but the other side gaining even more than he loses
likewise, even if kamala is convinced she isn't going to win florida under any scenario (super unlikely, as it's still unlikely she wins it but it's still in play) she's not going to mess with it because every democrat in florida will urge her not to because then they'll pay the penalty in the next election
the party wouldn't like it either because they can say "hey perhaps it was going to swing back to us in 5-10 years but now the cubans are forever anti-democratic party so we lost it for this entire generation"
florida very much still in play
I believe in 2020, Florida was the 8th closest state if I'm reading this table right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Unite... . That also makes Florida the second closest state Trump won, beat only by NC.
State and % margin:
Georgia - 0.24%
Arizona - 0.31%
Wisconsin - 0.63%
Pennsylvania - 1.16%
North Carolina -1.35%
Nevada - 2.39%
Michigan - 2.78%
Florida - 3.36%
In 2016, it was the 5th closest state:
Michigan - 0.23%
New Hampshire - 0.37%
Pennsylvania - 0.72%
Wisconsin - 0.77%
Florida - 1.20%
In 2012, it was the closest state. So it's certainly moving away from the center, but to say it's not even purple anymore? Seems like a bit of a stretch to say today.
luciom, florida has 13 million registered voters right now
there are 2 million cuban americans who are basically 55/45 split in voting
if someone were to do something to mobilize those cubans to not only voting dramatically for one side but also getting other unregistered cubans to go out and vote they can determine the winner of the state election
I'd like to point out that the FL Cuban American vote was responsible for W winning the 2000 presidency. The Clinton administration decision-making regarding Elian Gonzalez that year mobilized what was generally a pretty split vote into one that was basically entirely for the Republicans. As a fifteen year old kid, I personally knew over a dozen people that switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican due to how furious they were at the time. There was only a 537 margin between Bush and Gore in FL.
There is a reason that the Republicans make a special effort to kowtow to Cuban-American demands in FL. It is an extremely powerful voting bloc that can swing FL, the third largest state in the country by population, single-handedly. If the Democrats want to start winning FL again, they can perhaps take a page out of the Republican playbook and not dismiss them as unimportant.
I'd like to point out that the FL Cuban American vote was responsible for W winning the 2000 presidency. The Clinton administration decision-making regarding Elian Gonzalez that year mobilized what was generally a pretty split vote into one that was basically entirely for the Republicans. As a fifteen year old kid, I personally knew over a dozen people that switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican due to how furious they were
Its hard for the Dems to win over the Cuban population because of the Communism propaganda.
There are a lot of problems with Florida, but it boils down to poor Democrat investment while Republicans really dug in and it paid off for them. Then further gerrymandered it and it will take many cycles of real effort and investment to have any shot at winning it back. Forget purple, it's for sure red right now though and getting redder. Not top 10 reddest red by a ways but still red.
Latest polls have Trump up 6 points in Florida, it's hard to see a scenario where Harris wins it without destroying Trump elsewhere else. Not even sure what DJT would need to do for that to be possible.
There are a lot of problems with Florida, but it boils down to poor Democrat investment while Republicans really dug in and it paid off for them. Then further gerrymandered it and it will take many cycles of real effort and investment to have any shot at winning it back. Forget purple, it's for sure red right now though and getting redder. Not top 10 reddest red by a ways but still red.
Latest polls have Trump up 6 points in Florida, it's h
gerrymandering doesn't matter we aren't talking state legislature or Congressional elections , we are talking Florida vote for potus.
I believe in 2020, Florida was the 8th closest state if I'm reading this table right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Unite... . That also makes Florida the second closest state Trump won, beat only by NC.
State and % margin:
Georgia - 0.24%
Arizona - 0.31%
Wisconsin - 0.63%
Pennsylvania - 1.16%
North Carolina -1.35%
Nevada - 2.39%
Michigan - 2.78%
Florida - 3.36%
In 2016, it was the 5th closest state:
Michigan -
when we say purple we usually mean a state that can be pivotal in winning presidential elections, for both parties.
right now, afaik, no model has florida as that. doesn't mean democrats can win florida, they could in a landslide, but there is basically no scenario when they do win florida and florida EC votes are what put them above the line.
the only scenarios where they win in Florida, they would have won anyway even without winning it. so it's not purple.
when we say purple we usually mean a state that can be pivotal in winning presidential elections, for both parties.
right now, afaik, no model has florida as that. doesn't mean democrats can win florida, they could in a landslide, but there is basically no scenario when they do win florida and florida EC votes are what put them above the line.
the only scenarios where they win in Florida, they would have won anyway even without winning it. so
That's not what purple means. Purple means that it's a close to even mix of Democrat and Republican and could be obtainable by either party. Nothing in the definition of purple requires the state to have good odds of being the tipping point state. That's a factor you chose to add in on your own.
gerrymandering doesn't matter we aren't talking state legislature or Congressional elections , we are talking Florida vote for potus.
Gerrymandering cuts down on Democrat's motivation to invest more, strong pushes for Democrats in races that would help with the presidential ticket, and Democratic leadership in those communities which can help get out the vote. So yes, it does matter in the presidential election.
Man in some elections some candidates win most states, that doesn't mean that election all states gained vs previous elections were purple.
If the only scenario a party can win state X is a landslide victory, that state isn't purple. Purple is about very close odds for both parties to win, competitive state, and that implies a good chance of being the tipping point state (if the state is big enough, like Florida).
Trump avg polling in Florida are like +6 over Harris (and that's with Harris polling approx +2 nationally). If a state polls -8 from the national avg, that's not a purple state.
trying to portray a white man who’s shown concern for
marginalized people as some sort of menacing, anti-white race traitor
“Tim Walz is the white guy with a white wife and white kids
who hates white people," Newsmax host Rob Schmitt argued.
Americasplaining itt 🙄
trying to portray a white man who’s shown concern for
marginalized people as some sort of menacing, anti-white race traitor
“Tim Walz is the white guy with a white wife and white kids
who hates white people," Newsmax host Rob Schmitt argued.
can anyone explain to me the actions one must take to show you "hate white people"?
