The costs of trans visibility

The costs of trans visibility

Yesterday, Dylan Mulvaney broke her silence: https://www.tiktok.com/@dylanmulvaney/vi....

For context, this is a trans influencer who built a 10 million strong following on TikTok. She took a brand deal with budweiser to post an ad on an instagram, and the anti-trans right went absolutely ballistic, calling for a boycott, condemning the company, and to some perhaps unknowable degree it influenced that Budweiser sales dropped by a 1/4 and

. Dylan speaks more personally about the effect of the hatred on her.

What strikes me about this story is that it is just about visibility. This isn't inclusion in sports or gender-affirming care for minors, it was just that a trans person was visible. This wasn't even visibility in a TV commerical that a poor right-winger is forced to see, it was an ad on her own instagram page. We're all in our own social media algorithm influenced bubbles, but from my vantage point it really has seemed that in the last year or so things have just gotten worse for trans people and the backlash to even minor visibility is growing.

We need to do better.

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30 June 2023 at 04:48 PM
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by coordi P

This is the perfect time to post this slam dunk data I've been begging yall for the last month

Onus of proof is entirely yours not ours lol.

You have to prove that I drug with immense side effects works SO WELL, even given the disastrous side effects it's use is warranted, not us.

You have to prove to the effect of removing that drug is so huge, it has to be used again even if it permanently changes the life trajectory of a person in the most formative years of his life.

I don't have to prove anything I can sit here and wait for data and say "not enough", that's how it works when you want to touch children. You do all the work and it has to satisfy us completely, or you don't touch them.


by coordi P

Cass reports objective conclusion was "There isn't enough data and the data we have is questionable"

😀 boy you're slow.


by Luciom P

Onus of proof is entirely yours not ours lol.

You have to prove that I drug with immense side effects works SO WELL, even given the disastrous side effects it's use is warranted, not us.

You have to prove to the effect of removing that drug is so huge, it has to be used again even if it permanently changes the life trajectory of a person in the most formative years of his life.

I don't have to prove anything I can sit here and wait for data an

This seems to always be the challenge with them. They make a wild claim, link some obscure nonsensical paper written by Dr. Nobody who has a PHD in communication and gender studies yet it's on the rest of the world to debunk said wild claim. It's so backwards.


by Betraisefold22 P

This seems to always be the challenge with them. They make a wild claim, link some obscure nonsensical paper written by Dr. Nobody who has a PHD in communication and gender studies yet it's on the rest of the world to debunk said wild claim. It's so backwards.

According to the Cass report itself, of the studies analyzed, 58% were moderate to high quality

This included support for puberty blockers and hormone therapy.

They will hold clinical trials for puberty blockers in children under 18 next year

You guys do realize they are still moving forward with all this, right? GIDS and Tavistock were just replaced by other institutes with more oversight. They are still going to give kids blockers. Very little has fundamentally changed

You all seem to think that the Cass report resulted in the total ban of puberty blockers but that isn't the case.


Maybe you guys should rethink this whole "The Cass report was so damaging to puberty blockers that they want to conduct high quality research into its effectiveness and are allowing current patients to continue their same treatment" stance

Its a bit of a paradox


by coordi P

Maybe you guys should rethink this whole "The Cass report was so damaging to puberty blockers that they want to conduct high quality research into its effectiveness and are allowing current patients to continue their same treatment" stance

Its a bit of a paradox

The previous consensus in the UK was that you were a fascist monster if you even suggested to stop those treatments.

Now we are at "treatments are stopped except in a specific trial", for the UK, and people who agree with cordie are the weird extremist minority.

We take the win we can get in reality not in utopia.

Ofc it's incredible we even discuss this and the only normal choice would be to do like republican led states to ban anything related to "trans care" in minors, it's insane anything exists in that space.

And physicians evading those rules should face the harshest penalities possible.

That's the goal but we any single person we can save from that anywhere in the world is a win anyway.


by Luciom P

The previous consensus in the UK was that you were a fascist monster if you even suggested to stop those treatments.

Now we are at "treatments are stopped except in a specific trial", for the UK, and people who agree with cordie are the weird extremist minority.

We take the win we can get in reality not in utopia.

Ofc it's incredible we even discuss this and the only normal choice would be to do like republican led states to ban anything relat

I can't find anything in Cass's recommendations that I find offensive or even particularly disagree with


by Luciom P

And physicians evading those rules should face the harshest penalities possible.

That's the goal but we any single person we can save from that anywhere in the world is a win anyway.

Seems like you are on quite the morale crusade- saving one transgender child at a time. Sorry, but I would rather rely on the medical professionals.

It’s hard to take seriously your complaints about being called a fascist when you follow it up immediately with “ as long as the doctors do what I want, they will not be subjected to the harshest penalties (which all seem to be death in Luciomtopia)” posts.


by Luciom P

Ehm no it has been longer elsewhere, and sample size grows a lot when you add other countries.

If lack of access to puberty blockers caused suicides, it would be clear in the combined data of all the various countries (and american states) which stopped prescribing PBs for gender disphoria.

Not to mention, there are plenty of countries with absolutely no support for this alleged trans-identity (or gay rights). If trans-identity wasn't largely a social contagion, you'd see a massive number of teen suicides in countries where they don't allow "transition." Yet we do not see this reflected in the data.

Obviously GD is a real thing and we need to treat those who are persistently dysphoric, but it's obvious that social contagion plays a huge role in the explosion of trans-identifying youth.


coordi is very difficult to discuss anything with because he doesn't seem to understand very basic concepts like sample-size, burden of proof, etc.

According to the Cass report itself, of the studies analyzed, 58% were moderate to high quality

This included support for puberty blockers and hormone therapy.

Please tell me which page it says this: https://cass.independent-review.uk/wp-co...

You think 42% of the studies they used for analysis were low-quality? You don't think they just excluded them?


by coordi P

Maybe you guys should rethink this whole "The Cass report was so damaging to puberty blockers that they want to conduct high quality research into its effectiveness and are allowing current patients to continue their same treatment" stance

Its a bit of a paradox

What? The issue is that people have been swearing that PB are not only effective and safe, but actually "fully reversible" (which is not true at all, obviously, and makes no sense). People on your end call people like me evil for saying there isn't any evidence base like they claim. That's what Cass demonstrated. Why aren't you up in arms that we've been giving children harmful drugs like PBs that they don't need? Isn't it kind of insane that we give little boys "care" that leaves them with a permanent micropenis when they aren't even old enough to drive a car? I guess that makes me evil, eh?


by jjjou812 P

Seems like you are on quite the morale crusade- saving one transgender child at a time. Sorry, but I would rather rely on the medical professionals

You mean the professionals that parrot what you want and not the ones who try to speak out? Dr. Cass is a medical professional. Entire countries have been speaking out against the lack of evidence for "gender-affirming care." Why are you discounting those professionals? Don't we all know someone who got hooked on opiates prescribed from "medical professionals" anyway? $eem$ like they have good rea$on to tell u$ lie$ about thi$ treatment, no?


Not only entire "countries", but the scientific bodies in charge of public health care recommandations in some of the most advanced countries in the world.

Denmark for example

/

In the course of less than a decade, like every other Western country, Denmark experienced an exponential increase in the number of young people presenting with gender dysphoria. In 2014, there were only 4 documented pediatric cases who requested gender reassignment. By 2022, the number of referrals grew by 8700% to 352, similar to the several-thousand-percent increase in less than a decade witnessed by a number of Western countries. As the number of young people wishing to undergo gender reassignment increased, so did the rates at which Danish gender clinicians transitioned them. By 2018, Denmark's centralized gender service was medically transitioning 65% of referred youth. This was similar to the proportion of referred children who got transitioned reported by other pediatric gender clinics. For purposes of comparison, the Netherland’s Amsterdam gender clinic reports transitioning 73% of late-onset referrals and 85% of early-onset referrals and in the US, researchers analyzing data from Seattle Children’s Hospital gender clinic reported that over 60% of the referrals underwent medical transition with puberty blockers or cross-sex hormones within one year of intake.

However, following systematic reviews of evidence conducted in Europe and the subsequent reversal of the “gender-affirmation” paradigm in favor of a cautious, developmentally-informed approach that prioritizes psychosocial support and noninvasive resolution of gender distress in Sweden and Finland, Denmark appears to have made a quiet but resolute shift to treat most youth presenting with gender dysphoria with supportive counseling rather than puberty blockers, hormones, or surgery. In 2022, only 6% of those referred to Denmark’s centralized gender clinic were prescribed endocrine interventions (puberty blockers and/or cross-sex hormones).*

The rationale for this shift was explained in a recent publication in Ugeskrift for Læger (“Weekly Journal for Physicians”😉, the Journal of the Danish Medical Association. This Danish-language article provides one of the most sober discussions to date of the inherent medical and ethical uncertainties of providing minors with profound, life-altering interventions in the context of very limited understanding of the epidemiological shift in the population presenting for care, the growing rates of detransition, and the profound uncertainty about long-term outcomes.

https://segm.org/Denmark-sharply-restric...


by Phresh P

coordi is very difficult to discuss anything with because he doesn't seem to understand very basic concepts like sample-size, burden of proof, etc

good post but i do want to emphasize that the most heartbreaking part of this is that coordi absolutely does understand those things


he's just too emotionally driven on this issue that he puts the blinders on and falls prey to one of the more common logical fallacies out there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmati...


he's just so caught up in an us vs them that he automatically credits anything people say that he finds supportive as correct and anything to the contrary to be bad science written by hateful people

and lately this has been extended to derivatives of the subject such as where he now glibly posts that i said the democratic party were just like the khmer rouge and that you advocate for the mass extinction of dogs which btw i haven't bothered fact checking, but even if that is your position then it's not exactly a wild one but rather a fairly commonly held one

i have friends with pit bulls who regularly tell me that there's certain dog parks they are not allowed to go to, that certain friends refuse to allow their dogs anywhere near their children, etc etc

are most pit bulls dangerous? no

but dogs which fall under the pit bull umbrella are about 5% of the overall dog population yet account for 25% of all recorded dog attacks and 60% of all fatal dog attacks - so it is without question not only a far more physically dangerous breed but a more agressive one as well

yes, a properly trained pit bull is not a threat, but remember, that's the entire argument put forward by the NRA as well, just swap dogs for gun owners


i like you coordi, i think you're a great poster, would definitely meet up for a meal or drinks if we ever cross paths, but you've absolutely lost perspective in this thing you've framed as an "us against the world" issue


Yeah I'm not going to engage in this "Coordi is" sophistry from you two. Hardly seems productive.

I think making long multiple paragraph posts about my mental state on this topic is probably against the rules but w/e

Not to mention, there are plenty of countries with absolutely no support for this alleged trans-identity (or gay rights). If trans-identity wasn't largely a social contagion, you'd see a massive number of teen suicides in countries where they don't allow "transition." Yet we do not see this reflected in the data.

Obviously GD is a real thing and we need to treat those who are persistently dysphoric, but it's obvious that social contagion plays a huge role in the explosion of trans-identifying youth.


coordi is very difficult to discuss anything with because he doesn't seem to understand very basic concepts like sample-size, burden of proof, etc.

You haven't posted a lick of data. You are just making claims about things like its common knowledge yet you have provided zero proof. Incredibly ironic you bring up burden of proof, yet your main point (social contagion) is widely contested and has no proof to back it up.

Please tell me which page it says this: https://cass.independent-review.uk/w...v...

You think 42% of the studies they used for analysis were low-quality? You don't think they just excluded them?

If you read the report then you would know they excluded them. I was responding to a post calling all studies "bad" that even according to Cass most studies were "good"


What? The issue is that people have been swearing that PB are not only effective and safe, but actually "fully reversible" (which is not true at all, obviously, and makes no sense). People on your end call people like me evil for saying there isn't any evidence base like they claim. That's what Cass demonstrated. Why aren't you up in arms that we've been giving children harmful drugs like PBs that they don't need? Isn't it kind of insane that we give little boys "care" that leaves them with a permanent micropenis when they aren't even old enough to drive a car? I guess that makes me evil, eh?

This seems like a reading comprehension issue. Cass says that the studies are insufficient and there needs to be more structure and oversight. Thats why they didn't cut any current patients off, and are allowing children to continue using puberty blockers. Thats why they are going to conduct clinical trials of the use of puberty blockers in children. Thats why they immediately opened new clinics with a new onboarding structure to provide medical care to children

From Cass herself on the subject:

"There are young people who absolutely benefit from a medical pathway, and we need to make sure that those young people have access — under a research protocol, because we need to improve the research — but not assume that that's the right pathway for everyone."


Cass emphasised that a medical pathway, with lifetime implications and treatment, required caution but "it's really important to say that a cis outcome and a trans outcome have equal value"

Seems you just want to use the report to claim victory and Cass directly contradicts your stance in multiple ways.


Saying "This policy may come from a place of best intentions but I personally think its dangerous and you know who else thought they were acting from a place of best intentions?? The Khemer Rogue!" is objectively comparing a democrat policy to the khemer rogue. Trying to gaslight people into thinking that isn't what happened doesn't change the fact that is what happened. I don't really want to go through this again.

The Pitbull subject is incredibly straight forward. Pitbulls kill something like 20-30 people a year. There are 21,000,000 pitbulls in the US. To say a rational solution to 20-30 deaths a year is to euthanize 21,000,000 animals is objectively insane. Tell me more about sample size


Cordi do you acknowledge, and i provided a source, that Denmark has drastically reduced the use of PBs in the last years? if you do, do you accept that a lack of increase in suicide of gender disphoric minors THERE can be used to claim that stopping PBs from being used EVERYWHERE isn't going to increase suicides?

So do you understand now why your comment about the UK having stopped only 4 months ago, and so data not being available anymore, was wrong? because we have data from other countries that stopped/vastly reduced PBs use for years already, and Cass had those data at hand when the report was written?


by coordi P


This seems like a reading comprehension issue. Cass says that the studies are insufficient and there needs to be more structure and oversight. Thats why they didn't cut any current patients off, and are allowing children to continue using puberty blockers. Thats why they are going to conduct clinical trials of the use of puberty blockers in children.

On her recommendation, the N.H.S. will no longer prescribe puberty blockers outside of clinical trials.

I can't tell if you're intentionally dishonest or if I'm missing something. The quote was a recommendation given in May, even now it says puberty blockers are ONLY available during clinical trials and in SOME private clinics. No new children are being prescribed puberty blockers yet your post reads like they are?

Too many kids have been prescribed puberty blockers yet we are FINALLY going to conduct clinical trials to find out the effects of said puberty blockers. Yeah, not at all backwards right?

If you read the report then you would know they excluded them. I was responding to a post calling all studies "bad" that even according to Cass most studies were "good"

There are many reports that puberty
blockers are beneficial in reducing mental
distress and improving the wellbeing of children
and young people with gender dysphoria, but
as demonstrated by the systematic review the
quality of these studies is poor

by coordi P

Puberty blockers and hormone have shown a reduced rate of suicide attempt and success after use. There isn't enough data on this but the data that is there is in favor. Pretty straight forward.

What am I missing here?


You haven't posted a lick of data. You are just making claims about things like its common knowledge yet you have provided zero proof. Incredibly ironic you bring up burden of proof, yet your main point (social contagion) is widely contested and has no proof to back it up.

As I said, you don't seem to understand things like "burden of proof." But please, tell me what data you think I should post that would get you to concede the point I just referenced. You know you can Google "youth suicide rates" for countries that don't allow this madness, right? Why don't you take some initiative?

With that being said, there is plenty of evidence validating this being a social contagion. Like bulimia and nearly every other MH/medical social contagion before it, girls are predominately affected. Have you checked the stats yet on boy and girl representation for trans-identification? Guess who it's overwhelmingly affecting to the point of unnatural numbers. Shouldn't you expect an even split? Again, if this was biological in the sense of a trans-identify being a tangible thing, wouldn't you see similar rates throughout the world and not predominantly in Wester countries? Why do you think there's been a spike in MH disorders SO RARE that it's not even agreed they're real, such as DID, along with the rise in trans-identity? Why do you think there's a massive influx in kids presenting with tics, swearing they have Tourette's? Is that not a social contagion or what?

If you'd like to discuss the pitbull issue, you can go back to the pitbull thread where I've consistently taken a dump on your head over and over and over. I'm not trying to deal with you posting completely nonsensical takes with your made up math in multiple threads.

I have also never once said we should euthanize every pitbull. Lying because you can't understand simple things isn't really a solid debate strategy. It's what children do. This is why people in the pitbull thread just make fun of you and why you don't post there anymore. The last we heard from you, you purported that tons of children die from starvation every year with one of your illogical whataboutisms. I debunked that and you disappeared.


If you read the report then you would know they excluded them. I was responding to a post calling all studies "bad" that even according to Cass most studies were "good"

Cass excluded the poorly performed studies from the analysis. That's what I am saying. I am saying this in response to you claiming that , "According to the Cass report itself, of the studies analyzed, 58% were moderate to high quality." Yes, I agree, someone's reading comprehension is poor. Please find me the page in the report I linked for the 58% quote please.


by coordi P

Saying "This policy may come from a place of best intentions but I personally think its dangerous and you know who else thought they were acting from a place of best intentions?? The Khemer Rogue!" is objectively comparing a democrat policy to the khemer rogue. Trying to gaslight people into thinking that isn't what happened doesn't change the fact that is what happened. I don't really want to go through this again.

The Pitbull subject is

Unlike the 2a, keeping a pet isn't a constitutional right in the USA. So it's a matter of basic law.

It's VERY unclear if it can be federal law, i personally don't think it could , but with some legal shenanigans and using the most expansive reading possible of some case law, maybe it is.

Even imagining it could be done by federal law, ethical and practical concerns are such that i think proposing to euthanize 21M pitbulls is insane.

That said, sterilizing them could be far more acceptable.

Anyway, a proper free market solution to this would be to mandate insurance , which makes sense even in a pseudo-libertarian world when your behaviour intrinsecally generates measurable and attributable risks to others.

If you do that, the market will find a rate for pitbulls (and any other multi-factorial element that can concur to make pitbulls more or less dangerous) that wil cover the risk. Yes i know money isn't the same as giving back a lost life but the principle is the same for cars, and everything else.

And you will have fewer pitbulls around in the medium term because some people won't like to pay (say) 600 / year instead of 35 / year of insurance.

But it's not like we ban pools because children can drown in them, even if HUNDREDS PER YEAR under the age of 5 DO in the USA (yes, hundreds. Per year. Yes it's insane).


That said, sterilizing them could be far more acceptable.

Coincidentally, that's actually what I've suggested. But no matter how many times we try and correct him in the pitbull thread, he keeps on keeping on with his invented strawman arguments for us. He's like the little engine that couldn't, I guess.

There are not 21,000,000 pitbulls in the U.S., by the way. It's disinformation from the pitbull lobby that certain people latch onto. It's legit propaganda. His number of fatal attacks, as if that's all that matters, is also about half the actual number. But again, we have a thread for this so I'm not trying to derail. Rest assured, he's as wrong about pitbulls as he is about trans-identity.


The sterilization distinction is ****ing ******ed and a pivot from your original stance

You will have about as much success suggesting you should sterilize family pets as you would suggesting you are going to enter someones house and take all their guns


by Luciom P

Cordi do you acknowledge, and i provided a source, that Denmark has drastically reduced the use of PBs in the last years? if you do, do you accept that a lack of increase in suicide of gender disphoric minors THERE can be used to claim that stopping PBs from being used EVERYWHERE isn't going to increase suicides?

So do you understand now why your comment about the UK having stopped only 4 months ago, and so data not being available anymore,

Nowhere in your source do they talk about suicide.


by Betraisefold22 P

I can't tell if you're intentionally dishonest or if I'm missing something. The quote was a recommendation given in May, even now it says puberty blockers are ONLY available during clinical trials and in SOME private clinics. No new children are being prescribed puberty blockers yet your post reads like they are?

Too many kids have been prescribed puberty blockers yet we are FINALLY going to conduct clinical trials to find out the effects o

Youre missing something. Stop trying to cherry pick tidbits and read the report


by Phresh P

As I said, you don't seem to understand things like "burden of proof." But please, tell me what data you think I should post that would get you to concede the point I just referenced. You know you can Google "youth suicide rates" for countries that don't allow this madness, right? Why don't you take some initiative?

With that being said, there is plenty of evidence validating this being a social contagion. Like bulimia and nearly every othe

All data I've seen on demographics show that % of populations are fairly evenly split.

US:

Of the 1.3 million adults who identify as transgender, 38.5% (515,200) are transgender women, 35.9% (480,000) are transgender men, and 25.6% (341,800) reported they are gender nonconforming.

I saw demographics from somewhere recently that showed 48,000/48,000 split in a country.

by Phresh P

Cass excluded the poorly performed studies from the analysis. That's what I am saying. I am saying this in response to you claiming that , "According to the Cass report itself, of the studies analyzed, 58% were moderate to high quality." Yes, I agree, someone's reading comprehension is poor. Please find me the page in the report I linked for the 58% quote please.

I took the numbers provided in the Cass report and did some basic math. I'm sorry this advanced concept is beyond you


1. coordi unironically thinks euthanizing his gajillion invented pitbulls is the same argument as breeding them out. That's what I'm dealing with here.

2. You are conflating the trans-identifying youth with old school transsexuals, which are completely different demographics. The explosion of youth is what is being discussed. You know, the people who'd be affected by having their puberty blocked? "Teenagers and adults under 25 make up an estimated 43 percent of the transgender population" per NYT.

Do you remember the Cass Review that we are discussing? The one where you're inventing stats from it that you can't present upon request? The one you've totally read and understand?

Did you miss these references in there?

Page 26:

30. The Review explored the reasons for the increase in referrals and why this increase has disproportionately been seen in birth registered females presenting in adolescence, and the implications of this for the service.

Page 83:

Within its terms of reference (Appendix 1), the Review was asked to explore “the reasons for the increase in referrals and why the increase has disproportionately been [birth-registered] females, and the implications of these matters”.

Page 89:

5.17 The number of children and young people referred to endocrine clinics has increased in parallel to the numbers referred to gender clinics (Figure 17). An international survey conducted by the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology and Paediatric Endocrinology Society in 2017 collated data over the preceding three years from 25 centres across Europe, the USA and South America (Skordis et al., 2019). This represents the largest single international pooled sample of referrals. Again, this shows an increase in referrals beginning in 2014. Of this group, 63% were transitioning from female to male.

Page 92:

5.36 Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is another condition for which there has been an increase in presentations of young people. It is one of the obsessive-compulsive disorders (OCD), where there is a preoccupation with body image and with compulsive revisiting or avoidance of thoughts to manage distress. A recent study using population data (Krebs et al., 2024) found that BDD is more common in females than males (prevalence of 1.8% versus 0.3%), and that adolescent girls are at highest risk with an estimated prevalence of 3.4%. The condition is relatively rare before puberty. Many patients were found to be on the autistic spectrum and 80% of patients with BDD included in the study had suicidal ideation.

Page 117:

8.23 For children and young people with gender incongruence, ‘innate’ or biological factors may play a part in some individuals, in ways that are not yet understood, and in others psychosocial factors, including life experiences, societal and cultural influences, may be more important. Since biological factors have not changed in the last 10 years it is necessary to look at other possible reasons for the increase in referrals and the disproportionate representation of birth-registered females.

Page 266:

Exploration of the reasons for the increase in referrals and why the increase has disproportionately been of natal females, and the implications of these matters.

Page 308:

Additionally, there has been a marked increase in referrals of adolescent birth-registered females and an over-representation of children with autism or autism spectrum traits.

3. "I took the numbers provided in the Cass report and did some basic math. I'm sorry this advanced concept is beyond you."

Oh yeah, totally. Well, do you mind presenting them please?


by coordi P

Youre missing something. Stop trying to cherry pick tidbits and read the report

Cherry picking report conclusions and recommendations made to the NHS that they are following. Alright then.


by coordi P

Nowhere in your source do they talk about suicide.

The source is to prove they vastly reduced the use of PB.

They don't need to talk about suicide, I only needed to prove to you we have a much bigger sample size than 4 months in the UK without puberty blockers, which was you objection to the validity of the claim


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