Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
The Russians appear to be struggling a bit to deal with the Ukrainian ground incursion. Meanwhile, by some means (supposedly drones, but it could be something else), the Ukrainians have hit a Russian airfield about 200 miles inside Russia, and specifically claim to have hit a storage facility for the glide bombs the Russians have been using. With considerable effect, apparently.
You can perhaps assume that Ukraine has the benefit of intelligence supplied by partner nations with considerable reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities.
the us will not release F16s in full combat capability unless we own the skies. I dont know how many other ways to explain this to you
Addressing this.
It's been obvious for awhile not that Ukraine would be given f16s and they would be used despite the dangers posed to them.
The incursion is quite large. I think it will take awhile to gather up enough to try to repel it. I doubt it requires moving troops from elsewhere for Russia, but it is possible.
USA and others have been helping with intelligence since the start of the war. Drones seem most likely, but Ukraine has been working on long distance missiles so it's possible we are seeing something new rolled out.
The explosion was huge.
So Russia and Iran have been having a lot of meetings lately, and the internet assumption was Russia was possibly providing advanced weapons to Iran to fight Israel. But in reality it looks like the opposite; that Iran is providing Russia with weapons. Which pretty much means Iran probably doesn't expect to be in a full scale war with Israel anytime soon. This also underscores just how much trouble Russia is having replacing weapons; presumably because of embargo of necessary parts and technology, even given the wartime economy.
I have not heard that Russia was supplying Iran with weapons. I read that they were talking about giving Iran AD, I think if anything Russia helped to dissuade Iran from striking at Israel so Russia can continue purchasing weapons from Iran.
Addressing this.
It's been obvious for awhile not that Ukraine would be given f16s and they would be used despite the dangers posed to them.
The incursion is quite large. I think it will take awhile to gather up enough to try to repel it. I doubt it requires moving troops from elsewhere for Russia, but it is possible.
USA and others have been helping with intelligence since the start of the war. Drones seem most likely, but Ukraine has been w
“The US will not release F16s in full combat capability unless we own the skies”
Do you think Ukraine has f16s that are being used in full combat capability? AWACS, squadrons of fighters, anti ground missions, anti air missions etc
Is that going on?
Here's your original explanation of what you meant
none if we dont rule the sky, is this hard for you to understand?
the US doesnt release air assets to areas where we dont control the skies. part of this is cause we gave stingers to the afghanis.
you keep asking me these questions when you refuse understand that F16s wont do anything in combat zones unless its safe
is it safe? no? no f16s
is it safe? yes? f16s
unless the US uses them to secure the skies ofc but I already said I dont see that ha
Good read
A MESSAGE FOR THE WORRIED:
There are no red lines and there have never been any for Putin. In 2008 he saw that he could attack Georgia without a Western reaction, in 2014 Ukraine, he gained confidence for 2022.
The "nuclear" red lines on arms deliveries, artillery, tanks, missiles and aircraft have all been crossed.
Putin has repeatedly promised to destroy these weapons, which he has not done, as with the German Marder on Russian territory.
In reality, the threats only serve to scare the West. And it works. Many people close to me who do not follow the conflict closely tell me about Putin's madness and his response if Russia is invaded.
Putin is not crazy, he is playing with us.
A striking example is the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO: Putin had promised to strengthen their bases on the border.
On the contrary, 90% of the Russian army is in Ukraine and the border has been emptied.
This is the end of this new thread. I hope you understand that red lines only work for those who believe in them.
Whatever the Ukrainian plan is, it will all depend on Moscow's reaction.
Imagine trying to fight Mike Tyson (circa 1997-1998) and asking your corner if you're allowed to hit back hard.
I hope Ukraine is given permission to fight back with the same ferocity that the fight was brought to them. That they have to sometimes ask is mildly triggering to me.
They have to ask because their relying on other peoples fists.
@BGP. I could be wrong ofc
To me, full f16s use means an AWAC. And we don’t deploy those unless we own the air
But I could be wrong
Are people in Usa like you willing to die for whoever governs Donetsk or Sevastopol?I know Russians are,as this is an existential war for them?
i'll need some convincing that some dude in novosibirsk gives a **** about who governs donetsk
I'll need some convincing that Putin deciding to invade a neighbor that poses 0 threat to Russia is an existential war for Russians.
i mean the only group of people that this is existential for are ukrainians (obviously) and some of the people who control russia (probably)
the second group is currently able to compel our friend from novosibirsk to go get himself shot through the head on ukrainian soil, which i suppose makes it an existential conflict for him too, but in a different way
checking in for day 875 of the 3 day special operation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
mortgage rates about to double overnight, probably nbd, economy doing better than ever etc
update, russia has raise interest rates by 200 bps, now up to 18%
i assume this is plunging middle class russians into poverty, but they dont have any choice - despite holding rates at historically high levels, inflation is threatening to spiral
turns out that going to war with your little brother is not necessarily fantastic for your economy, contrary to the posting of various putin admirers itt
who could've predicted it
update, russia has raise interest rates by 200 bps, now up to 18%
i assume this is plunging middle class russians into poverty, but they dont have any choice - despite holding rates at historically high levels, inflation is threatening to spiral
turns out that going to war with your little brother is not necessarily fantastic for your economy, contrary to the posting of various putin admirers itt
who could've predicted it
90% of russians own their house, with less than 20% having an outstanding mortgage on it (and in most cases, for that 20%, it's fixed rates), so these rates increase hurt the middle class there far less than what it would happen in the west with the same rate increases.
90% of russians own their house, with less than 20% having an outstanding mortgage on it (and in most cases, for that 20%, it's fixed rates), so these rates increase hurt the middle class there far less than what it would happen in the west with the same rate increases.
my understanding is that this subsidy ended a few months ago because the central govt need to spend that money on guns etc
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
With state support ending for most eligible groups from Monday, the real estate market that’s been one of the key drivers of Russia’s wartime economy faces months of uncertainty. Banks offer unsubsidized mortgages at 17%-20% interest, more than doubling the monthly payments compared to the state program and making them too costly for most Russians.
Oh yeah,the potential Nato military base in Sevastopol sure is not an existential for the Russians,who are you kidding here?
No, that thing which does not exist is not an existential threat to Russia.
Yes man,those Americans MQ-9 s in the black sea dont pose any threat to The Russians(even before invasion)lol,are u dumb?Or you think as an american you can do whatever you want?
Are you trying to say drones are Nato military bases?
