2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

It really doesn't matter, as Trump is beating anybody but it's over for Biden vs Trump.

Agree. Trump vs Biden is probably top 3 biggest landslides in US history.

Trump vs X will be closer, but Trump still wins.

I don't know what you mean by "his 90 million." He ended June with 240 million cash on hand.

You can get 21c on predictit.

Google it. The mega donors are done with Biden.

RNC vs DNC is going to be night and day. RNC is filled with every speaker on stage 100% behind Trump, and everybody there happy and in high spirits knowing that Trump is heading back to the White House.

I don't know how you can hold a DNC with your top political dems from the Senate majority leader, House Democrat Leader, long time Speaker of the House, the Obama's, and all mega donors telling Biden to quit the last month. How do they possibly get up on stage and pretend and bs in support of him after that? Robert De Niro and Hollywood isn't going to move the needle. They know they're toast in November. Gonna be sad but funny.

Eight years ago I was assured that the RNC was going to be a drama bomb, as all the Cruz delegates, Rubio Delegates, Kasich delegates, and uncommitteds were going to get together to deny Trump a floor majority. The fix was in!

And then the exact opposite happened: Trump got an easy first vote majority because the kind of people who go to party conventions are the kind of people who want to unite and beat the other team.

I'm seeing the same articles you guys are seeing. Talking about Nancy Pelosi on the move like she's Aslan. But as of now, the DNC is still holding the "virtual roll call" the first week of August to pre-nominate Biden, even though Ohio ended up passing an exemption for Biden to get the nomination late.

Seems to be something to worry about when basically all the top Dems are telling Biden to give up, and he's still running?

Well it's not exactly the same. Trump was an outsider that the Republicans and Democrats believed had no business in politics or running the country bc he wouldn't know what he was doing and would just do something off the wall crazy without understanding world ramifications. Remember Hillary saying how dangerous it would be to have him near nuclear codes bc he would have us in WW3? Funny under Biden we have Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Hamas.

Biden's debate disaster, followed up by everything he's done since then doing nothing to improve in anybody's mind that he's much better at all than he was that night bc he was just tired from traveling (even though he rested 7 straight days at Camp David and prepped) is still fresh on everybody's mind. It won't magically be erased in 3 months.

He was losing before that at, and is losing even worse now and trails every swing state. He has the lowest approval rating of any president since Jimmy Carter and it's even worse now. There's no path to victory for him and they're well aware. He won't last 4 more years and voters know it. There's no support for that, or the past 4 years under him even from Dems. They've said for 2+ years that most Dem voters wanted a different candidate. That skyrocketed after his debate. They can show up all they want to and act like they support him, but they know it's a lost cause with him. Kamala too.

Adios Biden

emphasis added

yeah same vibes as when everyone was saying the RNC is going to oust trump at the convention

biden has a huge war chest, even if donors all bail, he has more money than what anyone else could raise in that time

kamala is only person who'd be able to use those funds and she polls just as badly as he does - we've been over it before, there's really no set mechanism to take biden out unless he does it voluntarily - after rejecting all those people, i have a tough time seeing him doing it at the midnight hour

if kamala were likable then i think the party would make waves to dismount him but as it stands i don't see it

it obviously looks bad, but remember how many people lost money betting against trump getting nom at this point 8 years ago as well

can anyone pull up what his nom price was back then?

also, gmc, yes i know you meant he was faking it - my response was all about the risk of tarnishing his legacy if he were caught faking covid

IIRC it was around 70-80c.

There is a lot more to this than POTUS race. It will be a complete disaster if Dems lose House+Senate, which is looking more likely as this goes on.

What day will Biden say I am dropping out of race? Pelosi and now Obama joining the talks of you should let someone else run.

Trump saying Fight fight fight down to -110 (from +300) now on bovada btw.

to be clear - i'm still unhappy with my positions and if i had a time machine to go back to yesterday where i could have closed biden nom at a profit i would have

but at this price i'm considering adding to the position

I'm speculating but behind the scenes work is being done to get Biden off the nom, at the same time providing cover/plausible deniability for those getting the nom rules changed. That way political damage hurting Kamala going forward is kept to a minimum.

i believe these are incorrect and propping Biden YES prices artificially high

the mechanism is the DNC declines to virtually nominate him, or holds the virtual vote and he does not get a majority of delegates, at which point superdelegates are in play and its game over. these are very real -- imo highly likely -- scenarios if he doesn't voluntarily step down. more likely though is senior dems continue building their takedown coalition and it becomes clear he will lose the nomination if taken to delegate vote, so he bows out to save face and legacy.

I'm not bullish on Kamala chances to be 47 by any means, but given how many big wigs seem to be circling, I'd guess they have a lot of internal polling data and sound reasoning for wanting to take such an unprecedented measure and remove Biden basically 3 months before the election. Must be terrified of down ballot bloodbath.

Really not looking good for Biden right now. The top democrats are pressing Biden HARD it seems so wouldn't be surpised if he bows out within days. Crazy because I think it was as recently as a day or two ago I saw Kamala Harris to be next Democratic nom go all the way back down to +400 (which I'm kicking myself for not taking) but is now back up to -200. Hoping for the sake of my bet (LOL) that Biden stays the course but really not looking good if I'm being honest...

The only truth to this Biden has covid nonsense is that he's tested positive for historically low poll numbers of an incumbent this late in the game. There's no possible plan they can come with for him to win. Time to hide him from the world while they shame him into submission before the DNC.

But what is the point of running Kamala? Nobody likes her. She ran in 2020 and got ****ing zero percent of the vote. Does no one remember that? I could see if Michelle Obama or Oprah had just stepped up, but that doesn't seem to be the plan. Maybe Oprah agreed to run as Kamala's VP or something? I doubt it. I just don't understand why all these senior Dems are afraid that they'll get killed on down-ticket voting if Biden runs and so to save themselves they want to replace him with... Kamala. It's like you're starving and come across a hotdog vendor and he only has two hotdogs left, and he hands you one that's all withered and gross, and you're starving but you really don't want to eat it, and so you demand that he take it back and give you the other hotdog, but you can see that the other hotdog is even more withered and gross. That's exactly what this is like. It's a perfect analogy.

this is why i'm holding my biden positions and strongly considering adding to the position at current prices

biden could definitely drop out, but i don't think it's anywhere close to the 80% implied odds I'm getting on the betting markets

we're so close to the end here and i just don't see kamala moving the needle where someone who wasn't going to go vote for biden is now going to show up for her

also been thinking a lot about the logistics of figuring out who is owed what in refunds and refunding it - that's an absolute nightmare

so i think what we would instead see is a media spend flurry not on biden but simply targeting trump - ie ads that are easily transferrable to another candidate and then once that clip has been emptied they announce the new candidate

idk - just speculating but the task of doing those refunds has got to be a legit barrier to dropping out w/o kamala taking over

i was going to disagree with you and make a point about kamala being on the ballot regardless as no one believes biden will serve all 4 additional years but that hotdog analogy is really good. touché.

eat the goddamn hotdog

dem leadership will convince themselves that the 1st hot dog is shriveled beyond repair, but the 2nd is salvageable if they boil it in water for 3 months and plump it up. of course there's a fresh pack of more appetizing dogs that could be cooked, but those aren't kosher and would have $90M less ad budget to market them