2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
yeah i've been closing out my various kamala no trump yes positions on predictit for some grocery monies - was not looking good for a while as market kept moving against them but plan all along was to capitalize on the fluctuations are get in when i thought k-dawg was overvalued a little
def learned a lot watching markets this year and seeing how insane the day to day swings can be on a low liquitidy market like predictit
As much as Trump goes on about the last election being rigged and you kind of roll your eyes, I wouldn't bet on Trump to win, out of fear that the election result will be rigged.
My working thesis is that Trump is going to lose for the same reason he won in 2016. Voters are sick of the status quo. That's why were willing to gamble on Trump in 2016. Why they voted in Biden in 2020. Why they appeared ready to vote Biden out in 2024 and why they now seem ready to try something new with Kamala.
Also, is it just me or is Trump's Twitter really cringe now? Love him or hate him his Tweets from 2009-2018 were undeniably entertaining and hilarious. Now he comes across as just another boomer ranting about stuff. Sad!
Some say the shooting changed him
It also doesn't help that he picked an uncharismatic guy who comes across as an incel who hates women as his VP nominee when Trump already has enough problems with female voters and the judges he installed overturned Roe v Wade
It also doesn't help that he spent years running against BIDEN TOO OLD RAMBLE TOO MUCH and now he's the rambling old man who is borderline incoherent in the race
It also doesn't help that he hasn't done a good job of defining Harris as 'slept her way to the top soulless prosecutor who put teens in jail for weed when she's smoked herself and ****ed her boss for promotions' which is a far more effective way to get her negatives up that 'is she black or indian? who knows, but she's fake black right guys right?' or 'she's a communist' when that is completely ridiculous given she's a run of the mill democrat who while more left wing than Trump is not exactly going to go seizing the means of production for the proletariat
Basically he had a lot of goodwill for a guy with high negatives after the assassination attempt and even with the candidate switch has a flawed candidate to run against but he just hasn't really landed any damaging attacks yet and if anything is allowing the D side to portray him as 'the old, rambling, weird, hates women' candidate.
Anyway too soon to know who will win still, nothing's going to change until the next debate is a chance for a narrative change but Trump is going to need one if he's going to win from here because he's running an awful campaign and now he is the old guy who goes on unhinged rants with an incel vibes VP candidate
I find it interesting how the current brand of right-wing populist economics (supposedly one of Trump's biggest strengths) is so easily co-opted by the Democrats.
No tax on tips
Expanding the child tax credit
Expanding/protecting social security
Protectionist trade policies
Anti merger/acquisitions
Very strange how communists are so open to right-wing ideas
My working thesis is that Trump is going to lose for the same reason he won in 2016. Voters are sick of the status quo. That's why were willing to gamble on Trump in 2016. Why they voted in Biden in 2020. Why they appeared ready to vote Biden out in 2024 and why they now seem ready to try something new with Kamala.
Right diagnosis, wrong prescription?
closed out a bunch of kamala no and trump yes positions on predictit about 2 weeks ago out of fear and kept about 80% and now i wish i kept all of them
Kamala won the debate.
Debate roughly flipped it from trump small fav to harris small fav presumably because Trump said some unhinged stuff like the executing babies but and the they're eating the cats and dogs bit
Betfair went from Harris 2.16 to 1.98 approx and Trump from like 1.94 to 2.10 or so
The second he said the cats or dogs line I wish I had a funded Betfair to live trade the debate lol but didn't
Will be interesting to see if Trump wants another debate or not because that went badly for him. Most people's minds are made up but assume Harris gains 1 percent or so in the polls from it
feel dumb not closing out the rest of my trump yes kamala no positions :(
hate political betting
Another few cents to Harris presumably the Taylor Swift endorsement boosting turnout with young women
Still way too soon to know who is going to win but my gut instinct is Trump just can't win nationally against anyone unless he actually has an agenda people like and stops acting the way he did during the debate which he won't
Basically he had a lot of goodwill for a guy with high negatives after the assassination attempt and even with the candidate switch has a flawed candidate to run against but he just hasn't really landed any damaging attacks yet and if anything is allowing the D side to portray him as 'the old, rambling, weird, hates women' candidate.
He's run a terrible campaign and that was a horrible debate performance. The Democrats are brilliant at political strategy. We all knew they were going to freeroll Biden with an early debate and now they've gotten their second shot at Trump and it worked.
The country seems screwed either way, tbh.
I'm hoping Kamala wins and it allows for someone like Vivek to win in 2028. A Kamala win and likely terrible presidency will put him in a good position.
feel dumb not closing out the rest of my trump yes kamala no positions :(
hate political betting
I was bullish on her debate performance. She's at her worst when she has to be a normal person and talk extemporaneously.
She can memorize talking points well and they came up with a great strategy of getting him off message by saying people are bored at his rallies. They did it specifically on winning topics for him like the border.
Another few cents to Harris presumably the Taylor Swift endorsement boosting turnout with young women
Still way too soon to know who is going to win but my gut instinct is Trump just can't win nationally against anyone unless he actually has an agenda people like and stops acting the way he did during the debate which he won't
I agree with you but she needs to run up her lead more than she has so far. Polling in 2016 and 2020 vastly underestimated Trump's numbers in the swing states in September of the respective years.
She needs to have around a 3.5% lead in the national polls going into the election. She is around 1% at the moment if you synthesize the best polls.
It's hilarious how obvious it is that Trump does zero debate prep. Credit to Kamala. She had a solid game plan and stuck to it.
My initial thought after the debate was that it just was more of the same--No one's minds were changed and in a few days it will fade into memory. But I don't think that's right. The debate helped Kamala tremendously. On the biggest stage, she came across as a competent and serious candidate. That's what voters who don't know who she is needed to see.
Trump landed zero attacks on her. His strongest issues are the border, Kamala's covering up Biden's mental health, and her position flip-flops. He wasn't able to make any of those points because he was winging it. He needed to drill down on why she flipped on fracking (she had to do it to become Biden's VP), not just keep shouting "She's going to ban fracking!" Make her seem like an opportunist who will say and do anything to gain power. Trump is unable to make that case and honestly, he might actually respect and like that aspect of her. It's very Trumpian.
Of course, it's too soon to tell who is going to win. But that's not the game we play here. This is the sports betting forum. We never know who is going to win any sporting event until it's nearly over. But I think Kamala should be the favorite.
I think Kamala suffers greatly from the bitch factor that Hillary had. They both have a grating voice, although Kamala's is even more nasal. And Kamala exudes Hillary's vibe of the entitled, ruthless, karen-y, girl-boss that a lot of people hate. The fact that Kamala has done nothing to earn her 'accomplishments' and has gotten to the top by having an affair and then being a diversity-quota fulfiller on Biden's ticket makes her even worse, but I think that's secondary to the above impression that she gives people. She honestly has tyrant vibes. It's funny because I think she possesses the traits that the media has tried so hard to impute to Trump—mean, autocratic, selfish. If you like people who are vindictive *******s, you're already likely in the Trump camp. Her style is different from his—she's more likely to sneer at you and throw you in jail for life whereas Trump would insult you on social media and maybe sue you into the poor house. But the salient characteristics of both is that they're arrogant and mean. And dishonest (though Trump's dishonesty seems lazier and Kamala's is more conniving).
Anyway, given that the electorate is largely a bunch of morons who don't really understand the policies they're voting for, these superficial things like being ugly or having a weak voice or having bitch vibes are significant. And wonks tend to underestimate just how low-information and gut-instinct the average voter is.
This all seems like I'm making the bull case for Trump to win. But I'll close this post with the bear case for Trump, which I think overwhelms everything else I've said here: Pennsylvania, which is a state that is basically a requisite to win the presidency, voted for a ****ing braindead slob who literally couldn't string two coherent sentences together over the Trump-backed Republican. Now with another two years of old whites dying off, god knows how many illegal voters shipped in, a Democratic governor who will ensure voting laws and oversight are favorable, it's really hard to imagine Trump winning Pennsylvania.
they need to nominate someone else through the primaries, and then have that person drop out and be replaced by vivek
Who does Vivek appeal to that a standard right wing white MAGA guy with any charisma at all doesn't - maybe conservative tech bros and that's it
It sounds horrible to say but in conservatives own terms 'he's a beta Indian manlet with brown skin and a weird sounding name'. His own presidential campaign was literally about how awesome another man (Trump) is which is serious cuck energy.
Dude is shorter than me and i'm not tall
Yes, he's a decent speaker but he has a 0% chance of being the Republican nominee let alone winning a presidential election
If Trump loses, MAGA will move on to the next shiny thing or stick with Trump and lose again maybe if it's close enough although I can't imagine them nominating him at 82 to end a presidential term at 86 after two consecutive losses you never know lol
I'd assume it's either Don Jr if he wants to get into politics (I can't see Ivanka wanting it and Eric isn't charismatic enough) or the next shiny MAGA white dude off the assembly line, not sure Josh Hawley has enough charisma but he'll try and Ted Cruz definitely isn't likeable enough so idk who it'll be, if they try and run JD Vance they might lose 35 states
Ah yes the same way Pete Buttigieg being Biden's transport secretary set him up to be the nominee in 2024, oh wait
Trump confirmed Biden hates Harris at the debate. Long live the insights of Elves.
Disaster decision from Trump to refuse further debates with Harris. So much of his brand is built upon the image of Trump being the alpha. Trump should have at least proposed a debate framework that he knows Harris is unlikely to accept and then back out while saving face. Instead he pulled out like a dog, he pulled out like a coward.
As I've said in the past, Vivek is basically Trump for people with a college degree. He actually knows stuff and communicates complicated ideas effectively. Trump speaks at a 2nd grade level. FWIW, I think Vivek's Hindu faith hurts him a lot more with the Republican electorate than does his ethnicity. There are certainly some who simply don't want the smell of curry in the White House but they are tiny compared to the Evangelical Christian base.
It's too unpredictable to say what happens to the MAGA movement if Trump loses again. Perhaps MAGA will will remain a sizeable bloc within the Republican party. Or without a clear leader, perhaps MAGA goes into hibernation and disengages from politics. The Republican party leadership would love to drive MAGA out of the party, but there's one thing they care about even more and that's winning elections. Can't win with 'em, can't win without 'em? Unless they can somehow find a unity candidate which doesn't seem to exist. Going forward, look to Tucker Carlson, as he encapsulates the zeitgeist of the current Republican party.
Will we have to wait until the Vice President Debate to have something to talk about?
Who does Vivek appeal to that a standard right wing white MAGA guy with any charisma at all doesn't - maybe conservative tech bros and that's it
It sounds horrible to say but in conservatives own terms 'he's a beta Indian manlet with brown skin and a weird sounding name'. His own presidential campaign was literally about how awesome another man (Trump) is which is serious cuck energy.
You are grossly underestimating Vivek. He needs Trump voters which is why he supported many of his policies while saying he disagrees with a few of them. If Trump loses, I think you can put the nail in the MAGA coffin. That voting base will still be very important but Vivek has the ability to bring them in with a new voting coalition.
He came out of nowhere because he isn't just a good political speaker, he might be Obama level.
His religion is his biggest weakness, sadly. I think if Kamala wins he will be set-up nicely to have a legitimate shot in the primary.
Disaster decision from Trump to refuse further debates with Harris. So much of his brand is built upon the image of Trump being the alpha. Trump should have at least proposed a debate framework that he knows Harris is unlikely to accept and then back out while saving face. Instead he pulled out like a dog, he pulled out like a coward.
As I've said in the past, Vivek is basically Trump for people with a college degree. He actually knows s
I agree with nearly everything you said. Trump's campaign handled the debate schedule about as poorly as possible. They allowed Biden to be hung out to dry when it was obvious he wouldn't be able to campaign if he stayed in the election. It would have been much harder for the Democrats to force him out without that the entire nation seeing how cognitively compromised he is.
Then, they agree to exactly one debate, with ABC who is run by someone with clear ties to Kamala and the Democrat Party. He got railroaded but it was obvious it would happen. And now he is passing up a second debate when there are very easy fixes to his strategy. Kamala doesn't have the facts on her side. If he just hammered home his closing statement for most of the debate he would have crushed. They baited him so well and triggered him into talking nonsense.
