2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

lol he legit might drop out in a few minutes...guessing not though otherwise i'm sure there would've been leaks.

Yeah, this is not looking good at all. Just referred to Kamala as "Vice President Trump". I just needed this guy to last the next 5 weeks through the Democratic nomination but starting to doubt he can even do that now more than ever before...

Why do you think so many high level democrats from donors to politicians to pundits/hack types disagree with you vehemently about Biden being the nom and are actively trying to force him out rather than recognize the reality the the situation as you see it?

I’m with Portnoy. Trump vs a head of iceberg 2024

https://twitter.com/catturd2/status/1811...

You realise Mr Barstool is wrong about everything all the time right

Guys, I agree Biden is too old and is not mentally as sharp as he used to be. I know that. Democrats know that. The problem is, all of the alternatives are worse. The time for Biden to decline to run was before the primaries not after. Ballot access issues, Kamala being a uniquely unlikeable candidate (Willie Brown, locking up teens for weed as a prosecutor etc) on top of being a black woman? It's a ****ing disaster compared to 'safe white male well known incumbent president who is too old and has some senior moments'

If Biden was running against anyone other than Trump, yes, he would be toast but Ds will vote for literally anyone over Trump, Rs will vote for Trump over literally anyone and it comes down to the Is, and the Is think Biden is too old/has senior moments but also think Trump is a raging egomaniac/narcissist with massive character issues too

+240 back to +140 over the last few hours when Biden didn't drop out as the conspiratards expected

This is one hell of a ride this market. He's still the favourite. If i'm wrong i'll take the loss. When i'm right, the people who are so certain he'll drop out are going to double down on stuff like 'he's going to resign after election day if he wins and Kamala will be the one inaugurated' or whatever the next conspiracy of the day is.

It was funny either way

here are the headlines from CNN front page:

[quote=CNN]

• The end for Biden’s candidacy feels clear, according to interviews with dozens of people in touch with the two Democrats
  
• Rep. Himes explains why he made ‘painful’ choice to call for Biden to leave race 3:42
  
• Takeaways from Biden’s remarks as he attempts to assuage concerns over campaign
  
• Analysis Here’s how Biden would be replaced, according to Democrats’ rules
  
• CNN Exclusive Powerful Democrats furious Biden’s decline was hidden
  
• Biden says ‘Vice President Trump’ when discussing Harris 0:51
  
• Radio station says it edited Biden interview at campaign request
  
• Opinion Biden should take his chance for a graceful exit

[/quote]

it's over. if he doesn't step down DNC delegates will defect

then how do you answer my question from post #356?

if he's such a lock to be the nom, why are they fighting it so hard? and make no mistake, they're fighting it hard

don't forget President Putin who also got welcomed onto the podium

You seem to hand wave anything that doesn't seem normal to you as conspiracy. There is real signal that Biden will be dropping out. You seem to mock that it hasn't happened yet. Do you think it makes sense for it to happen right before the RNC where Trump and co. can dance in the endzone for three days straight?

Or does it make sense to announce it shortly after the RNC when they can control the messaging?

They want him gone, that's obvious. I doubt the DNC delegates would defect. That would be terrible optics for the party that claims they care so much about democracy. They need him to voluntarily leave. They will be increasing the pressure for him to drop out as the days go on.

They'll find enough pressure + a comfy exit package for him to drop out without needing the delegates to defect.

We're at the point now where a majority of Democrats want the old man out. I think it was a mistake for me to just "yadda yadda yadda" over the part where I say it happens but I don't know how. That's basically the whole game now. Just as everyone knows Grandpa shouldn't be driving, there are not many legal ways to prevent a stubborn old man from doing so. So how do Democrats get Biden out?

1) Biden is refusing medical tests that might allow for invoking the 25th Amendment. Without something like a brain scan or a public diagnosis, that's off the table.

2) Obama/Pelosi/Party telling him it's time. I really think it's more likely now that Biden sticks his finger in Obama's chest and tells him, "**** off, Barry. You've changed, man, and I never liked you that much anyway."

3) Delegate revolt. Biden has 3,896 of the 3,903 delegates. That's an overwhelming number. While one can make the case that the Biden they originally pledged for is no longer the Biden running, good luck convincing that many delegates to switch.

4) Donor revolt. This now seems most likely. Can donors really apply enough pressure to force him out? He already has $240 million in the bank. In 2020 his campaign spent $1 billion plus another $600 million from outside groups. So there's a pretty big gap. Can George Clooney really play kingmaker here? If politicians listen to one thing, it's money. But what's the alternative? Giving up the nomination guarantees no power and influence peddling. It's a reasonable gamble that Dems will fall in line when faced with the threat of a Trump presidency. Polls are bad for the old man, but just close enough to give hope to people who want to see it.

5) Any other options?

Some more gaffes over the next few weeks, polls keep plummeting, he realizes he isnt viable and slinks away to let the dementia take its course.

Sent from my SM-G998W using Tapatalk

"Gollum, just give up the ring. You're pitiful now. Sauron is a far more viable ruler of Middle-Earth plus he will reward you for doing so."

if we get to throw joe into a volcano, then the pay per view rights could solve the national debt

Trump vs Biden golf match PPV would also solve national debt

They're pledged delegates. They can't defect.

they got rid of the robot rule, so they're not legally obligated and must only "in good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." as of last week three quarters of democrats thought he should step down. i expect that number will increase.

I'm one of the few people in the world that has watched Joe vs the Volcano. The volcano spits him out...

I'm with you on this bet and have decided I'm just going to ride it out win or lose but you've gotta admit it's not looking good right now, LOL. The idiocy of installing Kamala as his replacement aside (I'm not seeing a scenario where she beats Trump, a senile Biden has a better chance than her honestly), the facts are that the big $$$ Dem donors are starting to pull their money out and even many the most powerful Dems in Congress are jumping on the bandwagon to get Joe out of there. Never envisioned any of this happening but here we are.

I'm still holding on to the fact that Joe is a fighter by nature, seems extremely stubborn, and it seems his family (Jill and Hunter in particular) still wants him to run. The $$$ and power machines are fast turning against Joe and there's a lot of pressure on him here due to that but, at the end of the day, only he can make that decision to step down and I think he MIGHT just be stubborn enough to fight on against all the pressure he's facing to step down. So I'm still holding out hope in terms of this bet...

And when that sentiment was expressed in the form of Joe Biden getting over 90% of the vote...

Political commentators love to talk about the possibility of HIGH DRAMA around conventions. It's a cliche at this point. SMOKE FILLED ROOMS! CONTESTED FLOOR VOTES!

and when the sentiment of those 90% voters has shifted dramatically... people are saying it's unlikely enough pledged delegates will turn on him because it's never been done before and could be perceived as undemocratic. but the narrative is going to be framed as biden's team deceived the public by hiding his condition (and/or he has deteriorated since primaries) and it would be undemocratic to nominate someone nobody wants anymore.

the entire democrat political machinery is working to discredit him. previously friendly reporters who would lob him softball questions cleared/supplied by his team are now asking him to his face "why are you so old?" and "when do you plan to step down?". they're also now running fact checks on his "false and misleading claims" which is a headline normally reserved for true evils like trump and rfk.

leaks will continue to be published that undermine any perception of competency, his approval rating and polling will continue to deteriorate, and more democrat leaders will feel comfortable (or compelled) to publicly call on him to drop out. if a majority of pledged delegates inexplicably stood behind him they would be pilloried.

A lot of you Biden is toast people are going to look very, very silly.

can you answer my post #356?

I say this as a leftie myself but we are a bunch of paper hands pussies who panic and overreact when something goes slightly wrong and the left wing media holds Democrats to a higher standard than the right wing media hold Republicans to.

A lot of progressives often lack the courage to do something unconventional, risky or legally questionable to achieve a desired or even deserved policy outcome - Gore conceding vs Bush for the sake of the country even though in reality he probably won if all of the votes were counted, see Obama not forcing Garland onto the supreme court then the Rs do force Barrett onto the court in the exact same situation, no one forcing Ginsberg to retire when she was old and had cancer and a Dem was president, Dems allowing Lieberman to sabotage a public option when they had 60 seats and the trifecta to pass their single biggest policy goal of recent decades, etc

Some Dems may wring their hands that Joe is too old and his mind is slipping, but you don't get to be President by being a paper hands pussy, and if Joey B wants to stay, nobody is going to force him out, short of his own family wanting him to step down. You don't get to be President without the ego to say 'I deserve to be the most powerful man in the world this is my life's work and if I don't want to leave i'm not leaving unless the people reject me at an election'

Oh, and he's back to being the favourite on Betfair.

Anyway, the short answer is even if Democrats want to replace Biden (and while some do others don't and I personally think replacing Biden is the worst possible move strategically if the nominee is Harris which it kind of has to be this late) I think they lack the courage to make him leave if he doesn't want to leave in the same way some Republicans lack the spine to stand up to Trump even if they actually hate him because it is 'uncouth' and 'unconventional' and 'risky' and so on to make an incumbent president stand aside against his will even if in theory he should.

Biden isn't exiting the race unless he dies, has a terminal health issue or his family wants him to and if his family wanted him out the window for that to happen was a week ago.

The biggest problem the Ds have is the VP can't be the nominee or they get absolutely annihilated. They can't overlook Harris without pissing off black voters or women or both, they can't nominate Harris or they get annihilated in the general election because she is incredibly unlikeable and hypocritical on top of being a black woman which make her unelectable and I say that as a progressive myself.

It's the pinnacle of his life's work and having beaten Trump once, Biden honestly thinks he can beat him again (and I think he can too despite it not being a lock). He has an ego, all Presidents do, and he thinks he can save the Republic by beating Trump again and that it's his moral responsibility to do so.