2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
Similar prices on Bovada, 6k limits.
It's a good time to pick up some Biden while odds drift away from him, if you think the US economy will stay strong.
Trump's limping into the general election out of position with the political equivalent of q3 off.
I don't think the Republican party is anywhere near as racist as you think it is. You're falling for the media hype. Are there pockets of racism? Sure in a small part of it. Exists in the Democratic party too fwiw. Probably a bit more in the Republicans to be fair but you get the point.
The last time I was chatting to a Republican in real life in America she told me about how much she hates n-----s
My uncle who passed away recently is a Republican and did nothing but post racist memes on Facebook all day. This is incremental personal experience of course.
Absolutely not every Republican is a racist, but way more of them are than you would think and of course, there are plenty of racist Democrats too, but more white racists anyway are Republicans than Democrats, obviously there are racist people of other races too.
Dear lord that was a lot of **** to write out how much you hate Republicans and see no way any can win.
I literally said a lot of Republican candidates (possibly including Haley but she won't be nominated) would beat Biden in that very post lol just that I don't think Trump is electable nationally anymore.
Also i've posted here about four Presidential elections now with this being the fourth and been right about three of the four, and half of my bet in 2016 was on popular vote not electoral college so only lost small.
I also literally said it's too soon to tell who is going to win and that I currently have no bets, just my gut instinct is Trump is unelectable nationally in a general when a lot of Republican candidates might win if they nominated someone who wasn't offputting to Independents.
I'll most likely get involved post-primaries at this point. No point tying money up on huge favs in the primaries for months for a minimal return.
One of the interesting things about this cycle is that there is a real cost of carry to money these days. That should dissuade anyone from betting size, unless they fell they have substantial edge. It's the equivalent, more or less of betting with a bookie the day of a game, having to forego 5% interest.
With that in mind, I'd be less reliant on the betting markets this far out; in theory the market 'should' be much wider. That being said, if someone knew the 'true' odds, and the market was off by as much as 5%, they'd still pass. Which in turn, makes the markets far less reliable, imo.
As to whether or not Trump is electable...of course he is. The candidates on the ballot for a large percentage of voters won't be Trump or Biden; it will be Not Biden or Not Trump. (I prefer the nomenclature of No Trump, with my bridge background).
If it were a free market, the books would pay interest on your bet. That's how it works in futures markets in finance. I'm not really dialed in to the betting world these days, but I assume all the books still just pocket the interest earned on your balance. Theoretically some of that profit trickles down into lower vig, but not very efficiently.
Republican got to be +ev by betting day. There is a biases by educated white men. Fyi I bet 7k on Clinton winning and voted Biden(didnt bet but I was sweating day and night for his victory) but I have come around on being wrong betting both time.
The last time I was chatting to a Republican in real life in America she told me about how much she hates n-----s
My uncle who passed away recently is a Republican and did nothing but post racist memes on Facebook all day. This is incremental personal experience of course.
Absolutely not every Republican is a racist, but way more of them are than you would think and of course, there are plenty of racist Democrats too, but more white racists a
Man Swoop, you really are quite off putting
The last time I was chatting to a Republican in real life in America she told me about how much she hates n-----s
My uncle who passed away recently is a Republican and did nothing but post racist memes on Facebook all day. This is incremental personal experience of course.
Absolutely not every Republican is a racist, but way more of them are than you would think and of course, there are plenty of racist Democrats too, but more white racists a
lol Swoop don't say that part out loud. I know you caveated the statement and that you live overseas, but admitting those are your only contacts with Republican voters makes you come across as really out of touch.
One of the interesting things about this cycle is that there is a real cost of carry to money these days. That should dissuade anyone from betting size, unless they fell they have substantial edge. It's the equivalent, more or less of betting with a bookie the day of a game, having to forego 5% interest.
Very good point about the efficiency of long-term betting markets when the risk-free rate is no longer zero.
Republican got to be +ev by betting day. There is a biases by educated white men. Fyi I bet 7k on Clinton winning and voted Biden(didnt bet but I was sweating day and night for his victory) but I have come around on being wrong betting both time.
Most people simply bet what they want to see happen. At least the dumb money does. College educated whites may prefer Biden, but they aren't excited about voting for him. Trump has a very passionate base. There were people who were literally lighting money on fire by betting that Trump would somehow be installed president while Biden is still serving his term. Those people are definitely putting money down on him to beat Biden. In their mind the odds of Trump winning assuming fair elections is nearly 100%.
Just about done wagering MObama as dem nominee , larger position on this than to run as pres. Some Newsome to cover as a bit of an anti-climax . I do not see Biden running at all next round for a 2nd term. In fact, I see more of a chance of him dropping out before the end of his term than him running again. Lockup quite gnarly for the EV so I like taking the 2 likely replacements for smaller size.
I dont think you can not live in the US and have any kind of a good grasp on the American politics of the moment. Its probably true for most countries but thinking youve got your finger on the pulse of America because youre facebook friend with a couple of americans is kind of dumb I think.
The question going forward is how successfully Trump will be able to coalesce Republicans and Republican-leaning voters to rally behind him? There's a large chunk of Nikki Haley backers who are Never-Trumpers who would prefer Biden over Trump. However, when Trump was president, he enjoyed very high support from within.... So perhaps those fears are overblown and Republicans will indeed rally behind him. Everyone's favorite globalist, Peter Zeihan, makes the case that those fractures within the Republican party coalition will siphon away enough votes from Trump to result in a Biden victory.
anyone get that free side market of Desantis vs Haley on who to drop out first, saw an illiquid market at polymarkets offering it and wanted 1.70 Desantis to whack hard but it was all over too fast
any value in Nikki Haley vis-a-vis DJT being disqualified from running?
shocked more people than 2020 would vote for DJT.. he.got alot more votes.and higher.vote % than most people expected in 2020
The question going forward is how successfully Trump will be able to coalesce Republicans and Republican-leaning voters to rally behind him? There's a large chunk of Nikki Haley backers who are Never-Trumpers who would prefer Biden over Trump. However, when Trump was president, he enjoyed very high support from within.... So perhaps those fears are overblown and Republicans will indeed rally behind him. Everyone's favo
intersting comments.. but isn't the current thinking that DJT is miles ahead of Biden... i see him up by 2% nationally. that's a 6.5% swimg, which does make me think the numbers should eventually swing hard to Biden. but hard enough?
Lay Biden while the odds are good lads. Liquidity is there for you fellow big hitters
Just had to take some lay Biden since I think the payout will be a lot sooner than August
I think it's crazy to buy Biden at this point. There is real pressure on them to replace him now. These series of gaffes has been excessive, even for him.
I think it's actually a good time to buy alternative Dem tickets.
In reference to the White House press conference last night:
I think it's crazy to buy Biden at this point. There is real pressure on them to replace him now. These series of gaffes has been excessive, even for him.
I think it's actually a good time to buy alternative Dem tickets.
In reference to the White House press conference last night:
They've thrown him under the bus. All leftie propaganda outlets pounding on him (I've watched them all) except for the 1 with the butch with short hair cut on a round table with 3 or 4 simp dudes. People wagering who don't adjust quickly are going to get burned hard
going big on NO Biden presidency 2024 @ 0.60 on predictit. sportsbooks and polymarket are taking 0.70-75. significant upside if he has to drop out for health reasons, even if not his approval rating is 15pts below when he took office with a slim electoral margin. even if things somehow change for the Biden better, odds are liable to be around 50/50 in October and can cash out then. see it as decent 65% upside with limited 20% downside come October. think I still have Trump 50/50 if he's in jail.
going big on NO Biden presidency 2024 @ 0.60 on predictit. sportsbooks and polymarket are taking 0.70-75. significant upside if he has to drop out for health reasons, even if not his approval rating is 15pts below when he took office with a slim electoral margin. even if things somehow change for the Biden better, odds are liable to be around 50/50 in October and can cash out then. see it as decent 65% upside with limited 20% downside come
Imagine even getting 2-1 when fair is 1-1 and not hitting it
Recs will begin to see this ROI soon
FWIW i took polymarket and betfair I just don't trust the former with payouts fully so couldn't HAM the 3-1 being offered, if it were on betfair I'd jam it
Oh yes Nikki, please get more emotional on stage for the handful of voters, I'll take more units at evens for her to not drop out before Super Tuesday if it somehow gets offered on a deranged (but not as deranged as her) market again
