2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Latinos approve Trump more than they do Biden, i think depicting Trump as the "racist guy" really doesn't help democrats anymore, if it ever did
yea they are trying to portray him as that. to the point of pathetic imo.
many even prominent supporters of his are african american and hispanics. they try to gaslight you on that.
Influential LGBTQ political organization...
I assume this is a dog and pony show, but it could also mean there are plenty of people on the left who are also content to sit this one out.
How many lefties are looking at this election as an opportunity to punish the DNC for their crimes?
"You guys won't fold to our demands? Fine. **** you. We're taking our ball and going home to watch you lose to Donald Mother****ing Trump."
Victor is probably in this camp.
nah bro. even democrats admit he lost his mind now. hes 82 now bro.
who are we kidding? he should be in a retirement home. most if not all people are there at that age, or at least retired.
Fact is a very very very significant part of the population disagrees with those "ageist" claims, namely white , non-college educated, seniors, which Biden uniquely for a democrat these days has in his pocket. They were the backbone of his 2020 victory, and they still like him a lot.
A "normal" democrat would lose them by 10+ points to any conservative candidate for normal, bread and butter political reasons, and that's why democrats have a terrible conundrum and ended up with Biden again, because it actually makes sense for them, it's hard to believe any other candidate would have higher chances v trump tbh.
No I meant that he will be president, period, by the way things appear now. Im asking that actually.
Can you translate what you said? I dont get it. what do you mean by barring? you mean that biden might experience health issues? or trump criminal punishment, right?
I was very clear. Trump is highly likely to be the GOP nominee unless he has an acute health issue or there is a dramatic development in one of his criminal trials.
what about all the rappers? I would think they go with trump always, especially now. all the joe rogan listeners you know? the mohammed ali fans, the trip hop whatever listeners.
Rappers? Are you serious? I can't imagine that they are going to vote for Trump in substantial numbers, but who cares in any event. What percentage of the electorate do you imagine are rappers?
Influential LGBTQ political organization...
I assume this is a dog and pony show, but it could also mean there are plenty of people on the left who are also content to sit this one out.
How many lefties are looking at this election as an opportunity to punish the DNC for their crimes?
"You guys won't fold to our demands? Fine. **** you. We're taking our ball and going home to watch you lose to Do
its not really punishment. its more like, Im not gonna vote for the dude doing genocide.
Rappers? Are you serious? I can't imagine that they are going to vote for Trump in substantial numbers, but who cares in any event. What percentage of the electorate do you imagine are rappers?
No idea about rappers but according to the NYT own polls, Trump is polling better with blacks than any republican candidate in the last 50+ years
Fact is a very very very significant part of the population disagrees with those "ageist" claims, namely white , non-college educated, seniors, which Biden uniquely for a democrat these days has in his pocket. They were the backbone of his 2020 victory, and they still like him a lot.
A "normal" democrat would lose them by 10+ points to any conservative candidate for normal, bread and butter political reasons, and that's why democrats have a
yea its all nuts how they ended up with biden I agree. 82 in Nov bro.
how the f is that possible? commerical pilots are forced to retire at,
wait for it....
Spoiler
freaking 65 years old !!!
you cant even drive a commercial bus at that age, but run a country? lol
Rappers? Are you serious? I can't imagine that they are going to vote for Trump in substantial numbers, but who cares in any event. What percentage of the electorate do you imagine are rappers?
rap music is the most influential form of music in the US if Im not mistaking. you can hear it everywhere. most people party, thats more the young but not exclusively) to rap music, or hip hop. Thats gotta be an influence not only to african american voters.
yea its all nuts how they ended up with biden I agree. 82 in Nov bro.
how the f is that possible? commerical pilots are forced to retire at,
wait for it....
Spoiler
freaking 65 years old !!!
you cant even drive a commercial bus at that age, but run a country? lol
You do realize (or maybe you don't) that if trump gets elected he'll be that old before he finishes his term.
I was very clear. Trump is highly likely to be the GOP nominee unless he has an acute health issue or there is a dramatic development in one of his criminal trials.
ok thanks. trump has no known health issues that Im aware of, so that made me think of biden. the barring threw me off. is that a common way of saying this? I never heard it, maybe in court trials.
Oddschecker though gives Trumps a significant advantage (45 vs 33 % chance of winning)
This isn't the right way to interpret these odds. You should look at the implied odds for Democratic candidates in the aggregate v. the implied odds for Republicans in the aggregate.
Using that methodology, the implied odds of a Democrat winning are in the range of 45-47%, depending on whether you count RFK Jr. as a Democrat. (As an aside, LOL at RFK, Jr having a 2.7% change of becoming president.)
I'm not familiar with washoe's work. Almost as good as wreck'em.
Whether or not I agree with you doesn't even matter.
It's just a weird spot for the country to be in. Huge swaths of both sides of the aisle are like "**** this noise" and actively sitting out in protest. Meanwhile, Trump's shenanigans has managed to get all sorts of would-be spectators off their couches and into a voting booth for the memes or whatever. Is he going to be the same catalyst for otherwise apathetic dems to get out and vote against him? If not, is this really how we end up with Trump again?
USA#1 needs a come to Jesus moment.
This isn't the right way to interpret these odds. You should look at the implied odds for Democratic candidates in the aggregate v. the implied odds for Republicans in the aggregate.
Using that methodology, the implied odds of a Democrat winning are in the range of 45-47%, depending on whether you count RFK Jr. as a Democrat. (As an aside, LOL at RFK, Jr having a 2.7% change of becoming president.)
ye you are right i should have written differently: oddcheckers gives higher chances to "long tail" candidates than predictit.
Which is reasonable given that people like to bet on heavy underdogs for "chance of big payout" reasons.
Anyway the data is approx there, extreme tie right now republicans vs democrats, i agree.
gallup polls put trump slightly above biden, only by 1%
how accurate are these?
didn't all the 2016 polls have hilary winning?
thats true. trump shouldnt even be president at that age either.
why is it that commercial airlpane pilots are forced to retire at 65 years old but you can take a job as important as president at age 81 or 82?
why didnt they make an age limit for the most important job in the country?
