Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
No clue, hard for me to imagine a similar situation with USA.
yea
A major power plant near Kyiv was completely destroyed by Russian strikes early on Thursday, energy company Centrenergo said.
Trypillya power plant was the largest electricity provider for three regions, including Kyiv, officials said.
"The scale of destruction is terrifying," said Centrenergo chairman Andriy Hota.
Russia has long been deliberately and systematically targeting Ukraine's energy system.
Mr Hota told the BBC that Thursday morning's strikes destroyed "the transformer, the turbines, the generators. They destroyed 100%".
Russias been blowing up Ukraine power grid for years nothing new here. Its a valid military target
The new thing is the lack of air defense to thwart Russia's attempts at taking down Ukraine's infrastructure.
Why is this a valid military target in your opinion?
The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.
General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.
The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win".
"And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"
Ukraine is not yet at that point.
But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.
So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?
"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.
"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."
These include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era "dumb bomb" fitted with fins, GPS guidance and 1500kg of high explosive, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defences.
"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.
"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."
I agree with the overall sentiment but I have no idea what "summer offensive" actually means anymore. Russia has not slowed down since taking Avdiivka, they are throwing everything they have at Ukraine. This is likely because they fear ammo could make it to Ukraine soon, and also to make it difficult to prepare defenses, but the costs Russia is incurring is enormous.
I don't think there is going to be any kind of pause and a big push this summer. Russia knows this is likely to be the year where they enjoy the biggest advantage, they have no respect for life, they will be throwing everything they have for the entirety of 2024.
So their are offensives in the spring and sometimes the fall
When the terrain/weather improves enough to attack, you attack
And they like to get an offensive in before the winter sets in as well
This often coincides with harvesting and planting schedules are many guerilla fighters are also farmers (see Afghanistan or Vietnam)
The new thing is the lack of air defense to thwart Russia's attempts at taking down Ukraine's infrastructure.
Why is this a valid military target in your opinion?
historical reasons + its literally not against international rules even. Ukraine would do it if they could. Even the us destroyed 80% of Serbia's energy infrastcture like 20 years ago + iraqs. Literally everyone does it its not really a tool you can use against russia. It actually is a pretty valid way to win a war without killing alot of people if they keep it up there could be peace pretty soon
destroying infrastructure may not directly kill a lot of people but it often causes a lot of death. Ukraine probably has a more robust system than places like Gaza or Iraq ofc. regardless, it is an attack on civilians.
but hey, maybe Russia is unfortunately playing by Western rules now.
It might not be explicitly against international rules, but it absolutely can be against international rules. In particular it needs to be a military target, not civilian and it needs to be proportional: civilian damage cannot be excessive to the military damage.
Ukraine can do it. They are being accused of doing it now by attacking Russian oil refineries.
The destruction of Serbia and Iraq's energy infrastructure by the USA resulted in debates over the morality of these actions. This led to USA trying to limit damage to energy infrastructure later on. This is an extremely complex issue.
im not talking civilian infrastructure in general i am talking about power infrastructure which is a completely different thing. You can talk about it all you want but the next war American European or Russian war that starts missiles will fly to these targets asap. Its the most bang for your buck and easiest way to end a war. No army can function without power
Power infrastructure is not a civilian target by definition since the military uses it and requires it to run operations
Also if the Us were to not blow it up out in the future. It would more likely be because they can win without doing it. Clearly Russia cant
Its a huge difference when the #1 military in the world decides to not bomb the 100th ranked military in the worlds infrastructure (even tho they do to save American lives still) compared to two top 10 military's in a close war not doing it.
Ironically tho I feel like Russia and ukraine both don't target each's others infrastructure as much as most wars. Because you know its harder to bomb territory you claim as your own.
can we now say that sanctions that don't include all major world economies are a failure nowadays?
we have to either give up on sanctions, or force India Turkey and others to be fully onboard on them
their $250 bil of spending (and counting) on stuff which blows stuff up and on stuff which gets blown up is the driver. for the other side of the coin, see interest rates
Sanctions are working. Russia's economy growing this year is not a sign that they aren't.
It looks like Saturday for the vote on the Critical Race Theory bill:
Section 8148 prohibits funds to carry out any program, project,
or activity that promotes or advances Critical Race Theory or any
concept associated with Critical Race Theory
Spoiler
Shoehorned into this bill is also aid to Ukraine
lol woke dems
anyway, Im sure this will win the war for Ukraine. totally not a waste of money and life.
No, it won't win the war for Ukraine.
No, it's not totally a waste of money and life... wtf?
Sanctions are working. Russia's economy growing this year is not a sign that they aren't.
I think you can at most claim that sanctions linked to military equipment work in some sense, but the broad set of economic sanctions isn't working to weaken Russia.
Some sanctions actually, clearly help Putin. Everything that makes it harder for Russian citizens to splurge on foreign goods and services helps Putin stabilize the ruble and finance the war, clearly.
Every Ferrari, luxury wine, German appliance and so on upper middle class Russians can't buy, is more money in the Russian banking system to finance the war through financial repression (paying low rates on deposits), a lower pressure on the exchange rate, and a better trade balance sheet for Putin.
It looks like Saturday for the vote on the Critical Race Theory bill:
Section 8148 prohibits funds to carry out any program, project,
or activity that promotes or advances Critical Race Theory or any
concept associated with Critical Race Theory
Spoiler
Shoehorned into this bill is also aid to Ukraine
Do they define CRT in the bill itself ? I hope the definition is broad enough to actually work.
The broad set of economic sanctions is working to weaken Russia. The sanctions in no meaningful way help Putin.
The broad set of economic sanctions is working to weaken Russia. The sanctions in no meaningful way help Putin.
Please explain to me your model to claim that blocking Russians from buying Nespresso coffee machines, Ikea furniture , Bordeaux wines, vacations in Sardinia, swiss chocolate and so on weakens Putin (I went through how imho it helps Putin)
