Money Bubble Decision JJ
We are playing a local $200 deep stack entry. Started with around 145. 17 left, 16 get paid. Min cash is $300. About $7,800 up top. Our table is mostly OMC types with a few typical women players thrown in. Avg. stack is around $240k. We have $190k and barely cover OMC V in this hand.
Just before hand started every player agreed to pay the next player out $15 -- a total of $240 (which was collected by one player), but the house still kept us hand-for-hand which frustrated a bunch of players since we hand been hand-for-hand for about 1/2 hour.
I think the agreement to pay makes this an easy call. But wondering what people think if we weren't guaranteed $240.
OTTH:
Blinds $8k/$16k with BB ante. V has about $175k and opens from LJ for $55k. I am in CO with JJ, What's my move here with JJ assuming no deal had been made?
12 Replies
You are no longer on the bubble because you all paid the bubble. Fwiw I have never and would never pay the bubble. Especially for such a trivial amount.
Given you have 12bbs I don’t see an exit from this hand. It has to go all in. These small tourneys move way too fast to pass up this spot. Of course not happy that OMC opened to lol 3.5x but this type will still have folds occasionally and it’s possible you’re flipping vs AK. Some of these guys are so bad they might even consider folding AK to your shove. I expect to be beat very often and I’m fine with that. We can’t afford to fold here.
Regardless of the bubble money I would jam here. JJ is a huge hand for when we have 12 bb's. Even though V raised 30% of his stack and will never fold.
Even in a $200 tourney I think a 3.5x pre-flop raise is very rare. Not sure why V picked this sizing but it is not good. I can see why a fold might be best option because V probably does this with only AA/KK as he is never folding to a call and then a flop shove. But it could be other hands like 88-QQ that want to get folds pre-flop. Or AK because that is what he does with AK.
In fairness to V one time with AA I miscalculated when I was trying to raise 3x but accidentally made it 4x. One guy tanked and then folded.
This is a fist pump jam. It's not even close here. I usually see OMC open raise to 3x with AK, but you have to take this shove. Unless you know this player very well, you have a very big hand for 12BBs. There is no way that these players are all OMCs.
The fact that you cover the player is good, because it puts the pressure back on this player. Let them decide if they want to flip to min cash (some players will actually fold AK in this spot).
It sucks when you run into a bigger hand. But based on what you've said, stacks are very shallow. You better start getting ready to push with some hands.
I think you just get it in. With the $240 payout agreed upon you're not even really on the bubble anymore.
One thing to consider that paying the bubble not only allows you to get it with a wider range, but also impacts the OMC's raise/get it in range.
Thanks everyone. I did jam -- and thought it was really easy to do so, because we had agreed on the payout. But if we had not agreed to the deal, might have folded as I ranged V (fairly confidently given he was the prototypical OMC) as JJ+/AK. And with only one combo of JJ, looks more like QQ+/AK. But I think you guys are right that at 12 bbs, I should just go for it. (The hand for hand was excruciating with this bunch of nits).
Anyhow, for those who are interested:
Spoiler
V tanked for a long time and called AK. He got there with an A on the flop. I actually got my stack back up to $45k two hands later when I jammed AJ and got calls from both blinds --less than the BB so there was a side pot (and the BB ante). Then I got it in good with QQ against same V on BB with 77. Sadly, 7 hit the river. I'd be about right back where I started if I won the QQ v 77 hand.
The fact that the villain tanked shows even more that this is a shove.
Without the payout agreement, I would probably still jam here but it’s really close. Would certainly fold TT and shrug call QQ. As played it’s kind of a no brainer as the risk premium has dipped significantly due to paying the bubble.
Does anyone see the value in a flat here (again assuming the bubble didn't get paid)? We know that V has almost certainly committed himself with the open. So do we call and fold to any flop with A and K, and get it in on all others as an exploit against a range with so much AK. Or even, we might get to bluff the turn if an A or K flops and V checks it twice -- as this looks like a face up QQ from the OMC?
Just thinking this could be a great opportunity to exploit a pretty predictable opponent.
I mean, if he has exactly AK. What happens when he has AQ and folds you off a Kxx board? Or when he has TT and you fail to get the money in and double up?
Does anyone see the value in a flat here (again assuming the bubble didn't get paid)? We know that V has almost certainly committed himself with the open. So do we call and fold to any flop with A and K, and get it in on all others as an exploit against a range with so much AK. Or even, we might get to bluff the turn if an A or K flops and V checks it twice -- as this looks like a face up QQ from the OMC?
Just thinking this could be a gre
The value would be if we were in a high stakes buy-in and we were on the bubble and there was no bubble money agreement. Especially if a Guarantee hasn't been hit.
I do think that in these spots people have TT a lot less than AA. And we are in position, so if Villain misses with AK or AQ they might just check. And if they are checking with QQ+ it is no different than if we had jammed to begin with.
In this situation though, if I were Villain I would be jamming every flop regardless. So we lose out on Kxx flops when Villain has AQ (or any hand that has no K or AA/QQ) and Qxx flops when Villain has AK (or again no QQ). And in this tournament I would want to go deep so being down to 8.5 bb's would pretty much get us to the money most of the time (which is essentially where we are now) but usually that would be it.
