2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
I usually hate picking late first but this isn’t my least favorite draft
Qb : Josh , Levis
Rb : Saquon , Zamir , Brian Robinson jr , Corum , Estime
Wr : Harrison jr, Diggs , Ridley , Godwin , Shakir , Wandale , Bateman , Mims, Demarcus Robinson , Rondale , Elijah Moore
Te : Ferguson , Muth
Didn't get any Cowboy runbacks. Sniped on Zeke. Missed Dowdle. Was going to draft Tolbert late, but then someone took him in the 14th round lol (they didn't have Dak and 0 correlation)
QB - Hurts, Caleb
RB - Walker, Javonte, Chubb, Dobbins, Ray Davis, CEH, Guerendo
WR - AJB, Nico, DJ, Odunze, Williams, Wandale, Elijah, Johnny Wilson
TE - Andrews, Goedert, Gesicki
Haven’t fired any BB drafts yet (will soon after the USA#1 holiday), but some initial thoughts for both BB and redraft:
If we (rightfully) believe that Underdog ADP is going to be more efficient than ESPN/Yahoo, then I’m almost guaranteed to be getting Drake London in round 2 (and should take him) in redraft if I have a 1.02-1.07 redraft spot.
Some round 1-3 landmines I’ll be avoiding in all formats:
Saquon - no PHI RB should be drafted this high.
Aiyuk - feels 50/50 whether he or Deebo will be the better SF WR to own. Avoiding Aiyuk simply for price reasons. (And we’ve seen Deebo previously be a top 5 WR).
MHJ - I trust the talent, but we probably won’t see it pay off until later in season. I can’t have that from a 2nd rounder.
AJB - not quite same story as Aiyuk/Deebo since AJB is more talented than Devonta, but (1) I’d like to try to own Devonta instead, (2) those 1.09-2.04 draft selections are flat enough that id rather be taking Garett Wilson and JT when available.
Any of the QBs & TEs in rounds 2-3. There are several later (but not too late) candidates than can compete with LaPorta for the #1 spot. Andrews/McBride/Bowers are good targets.
Got in a $9 and of course I finally get a top 3 pick (2nd overall).
Thought it would be interesting to take a backup QB with my last pick. Added Dobbs to the queue, but then changed my mind at the last second. Tried to draft a WR but it didn't go through.
QB - Tua, Trevor, Dobbs (lol)
RB - Monty, Brooks, Chubb, Kendre, Mclaughlin, CEH
WR - Hill, Waddle, Deebo, Kirk, Jamo, Thielen, Boyd, Malik
TE - McBride, Likely, Gesicki
Lamar Stafford
Saquon Kamara Corum Chase Tyrone Estime Demercado
MHJ DK Jayden BTJ Courtland Burton Bateman Quez CedricWilsonJr
Ferguson Sinnott
Been doing a lot of research on the rookies, and saw something I thought was interesting in Malik Washington's scouting report.
Highlighted portion makes it sound like he'll fit in perfectly with Miami's offense.
Don't think we can just weigh the possibility of a 4th QB outscoring Doubs and Legrette.
We also need to consider how often that 4th QB will outscore all 3 of our other QBs since there's only one roster spot available.
Yes. I am considering how often a fourth QB will outscore all of the three crap QBs you've picked compared to how often an end of bench WR will end up in the top three when you already have five that are both clearly better and pretty consistent
Yes. I am considering how often a fourth QB will outscore all of the three crap QBs you've picked compared to how often an end of bench WR will end up in the top three when you already have five that are both clearly better and pretty consistent
I think by the time you end up in the situation of having those 3 shitty QBs, you just have to bet on them way out performing expectations and correlate with them. Don’t think grabbing a 4th shitty qb uncorrelated does anything. Especially on only 18 player rosters. It may be viable on dk and you may even be able to stack that 4th qb there effectively
Doubs - bring back for w17 for JJ
Legette - stack partner for Bryce
Had to scramble and make a back door stack w Levis otherwise would be shut out of qb since all the late guys are w14 (same as AR) or unstacked JJ or dimes who’s the same w17 game as AR. given that, is 3 te fine here?
Qb - AR, Levis
Rb - Najee, Singletary, Benson, Chandler, Gibson, Bigsby
Wr - AJB, Nabers, Dell, Pittman, Watson, Downs, Boyd
Te - Pitts, Musgrave, Chig
Had to scramble and make a back door stack w Levis otherwise would be shut out of qb since all the late guys are w14 (same as AR) or unstacked JJ or dimes who’s the same w17 game as AR. given that, is 3 te fine here?
Qb - AR, Levis
Rb - Najee, Singletary, Benson, Chandler, Gibson, Bigsby
Wr - AJB, Nabers, Dell, Pittman, Watson, Downs, Boyd
Te - Pitts, Musgrave, Chig
Very nice team.
Solid correlation with the Colts/Giants
Did you get sniped on Hurts or just pass?
QB) Mahomes, Mayfield
RB) CMC, Spears, Corum, Lloyd, Chandler, Bigsby
WR) Nabers, Evans, Worthy, D Johnson, C Samuel, Bateman, Corley, Baker
TE) Kittle, Bowers
Very nice team.
Solid correlation with the Colts/Giants
Did you get sniped on Hurts or just pass?
I passed bc it’s a mini schnauzer and I already had a decent amount of ajb/hurts stacks. If it was bbm I would’ve taken hurts.
Also I don’t like Pittman, but when he falls to the fourth I like getting shares
QB) Mahomes, Mayfield
RB) CMC, Spears, Corum, Lloyd, Chandler, Bigsby
WR) Nabers, Evans, Worthy, D Johnson, C Samuel, Bateman, Corley, Baker
TE) Kittle, Bowers
Seems good. Would’ve liked a bit more correlation. Guessing you got sniped on Rice.
Would’ve tried to get like CEH, Macmillan, Irving
When you took Lloyd/Chandler was Kendre available? I like both those guys better than kendre but w bowers I would’ve taken Kendre
Feel like I have the oldest early round tm of all time. Henry fell 15 spots past ADP
Qb - Burrow, Jayden
Rb - Henry, Conner, C Brown, Chandler, Estime
Wr - Chase, Adams, Kupp, Keenan, Keon, Dotson, Franklin, LMC
Te - Kittle, Otton, Gesicki
Was between Gesicki and Iosivas at the end. Feel like Iosivas has more outs to have a huge game, but thought 9wr on this team was a mistake
I passed bc it’s a mini schnauzer and I already had a decent amount of ajb/hurts stacks. If it was bbm I would’ve taken hurts.
Also I don’t like Pittman, but when he falls to the fourth I like getting shares
I figured you got Pittman in the 4th which is fine especially since you were able to get AR.
Seems good. Would’ve liked a bit more correlation. Guessing you got sniped on Rice.
Would’ve tried to get like CEH, Macmillan, Irving
When you took Lloyd/Chandler was Kendre available? I like both those guys better than kendre but w bowers I would’ve taken Kendre
I didn't expect Rice to make back to me but I would have taken him. CEH would have been nice but he went a few picks before me.
Mcmillan went before I took Baker. Baker fell 23 spots past ADP I got him last pick of round 16. I would have taken Trey Palmer with my next pick but I couldn't remember his name. Irving also went way before I took Baker.
Lloyd/Chandler have week 17 correlation. Kendre went one pick before I took those two at the turn.
I was targeting Muth for the KC bring back but I can't pass on Bowers when I have the chance especially after ADP.
How do you guys know the week 17 games during your drafts? A website or have you guys memorized all the matchups ?
Really like this team
Qb - Stroud, Watson
Rb - Taylor, Benson, C Brown, Chandler, Gibson, Irving
Wr - Reek, Diggs, Cooper, Nuk, Lockett, Jeudy, Tez Walker, Malik Washington
Te - Andrews, Juwan (got sniped on all other viable options)
Really like this team
Qb - Stroud, Watson
Rb - Taylor, Benson, C Brown, Chandler, Gibson, Irving
Wr - Reek, Diggs, Cooper, Nuk, Lockett, Jeudy, Tez Walker, Malik Washington
Te - Andrews, Juwan (got sniped on all other viable options)
Not a fan of the rbs but I still like this team a lot .
How do you guys know the week 17 games during your drafts? A website or have you guys memorized all the matchups ?
Memorized. I think it helps during the draft to be able to quickly know who you will try to target for correlation. Obviously you could just have it printed out but there is something better about seamlessly having this information available in my head.
I haven't been considering weeks 15 and 16 other than knowing certain teams have great playoff schedules. I'm wondering if I should be considering this more.
Really like this team
Qb - Stroud, Watson
Rb - Taylor, Benson, C Brown, Chandler, Gibson, Irving
Wr - Reek, Diggs, Cooper, Nuk, Lockett, Jeudy, Tez Walker, Malik Washington
Te - Andrews, Juwan (got sniped on all other viable options)
Your RBs are quite fragile after Taylor. I think Conner is still gonna be the bell cow but Benson may carve a roll by the end of the season. Conner always misses some games. Big upside here. I don't know what to think of Chase Brown. I don't know what to think about the either Bengal RBs. Chandler should be involved early. It could work but you will need one of these guy's to far exceed expectations.
The rest of the team looks great.
Memorized. I think it helps during the draft to be able to quickly know who you will try to target for correlation. Obviously you could just have it printed out but there is something better about seamlessly having this information available in my head.
I haven't been considering weeks 15 and 16 other than knowing certain teams have great playoff schedules. I'm wondering if I should be considering this more.
Don’t think 15 & 16 are important to correlate. You only have to beat a small number of teams vs a final where you have to beat 100’s of teams. That w17 correlation gives you an edge in terms of getting those top 1% outcomes, which is not completely necessary in 15 & 16
