How much to raise FH?
Early in an online $30 tournament. ~100 BBs effective.
Hijack raises 2 BBs, cutoff calls, I call on the button with 33, blinds fold. (8 BBs)
Flop 3KK two tone, HJ bets 2.5 BBs, I call. (13 BBs).
Turn 9x, he bets 10 BBs, I call again. (33 BBs).
River J completing the flush, he bets 10 BBs again.
How much to raise? We have 80 BBs left and he covers. Any other advice welcome
12 Replies
Rip!
But be prepared to see KJ…
Seriously, raising seems optimal and something approaching pot feels good. 35BB for me
Don't mind raising flop assuming villain never folds 44-QQ/AA and you can get max value and all of it when he happens to have a King. As played, turn call seems good, now on river I think both raising to ~35-40 like Pops said is reasonable (whatever amount you think he's unable to fold AK/KQ/KT to) also don't hate just ripping it hoping he hit flush or QT and I imagine most people online in a $30 tourney just call with their flushes here giving the ol "I can't fold!" and just paying you off especially when they have AQss ATss Axss etc. I find it's rare that ppl who draw the whole way/hit their money card on the river, are able to find the fold on the river even when their gut tells them they're beat.
The question is do you have any bluffs at any point in this hand and if so what and where? Once you know that then you'll know where and how much you are raising.
Pot would be raising to 63BB.
I guess raise however much you think a good Kx will call.
I also think this might be a hand you can raise earlier; villain's line is pretty strong here. I guess you run the risk of losing him if you think he can fold Kx on the turn, but you might also just be able to get the money in before a scare card hits. I don't think he'll necessarily fold to the heart river, but the possibility is open now. I'm not really sure which line is optimal, though.
I guess I just said I don’t play much pot limit, without saying…
I don't think this is as relevant in low stakes tournaments as people think. I would be more focused on what villain's range is and maximizing your value against that than worried about being balanced in spots that aren't going to come up very frequently against an opponent who may or may not even notice nor know how to exploit said imbalance.
My vote in this situation is to shove. As some earlier responses indicated, there really should not be many bluffs in this hand so any raise is going to look very strong. Paradoxically, I think that a shove looks more like a bluff then a smaller raise would and will result in more Kx and flushes calling.
Liked:
Just shove no one’s folding a flush and they probably arnt folding a decent K.
I like shoving river, sometimes people will think they’ve induced it by betting small on river.
I do think raising flop to like 7bb is the play. You can have some bluffs and I think it’s easier to get paid.
I think the problem is the flush got there. It will look like you hit your flush (or possibly boat) on the river if you raise and my guess is that most Kx hands will fold. Maybe AK will call thinking you could have a worse K and want him to fold.
I probably would recommend a raise on the flop because Villain can have Kx type hands. But I have called in this type of spot and on two different occasions was able to lose the minimum and fold because either a K hit the turn or the board paired on the river (like if a 9 came on the river in this hand).
As played I probably just raise to 30 bb's (3x) because I think AK/KQ will still call and any flush would call. If he jams then its a very tough spot as he can have KK/KJ/99 and I would think about folding. The reason I raise so small is that Villain is making a blocking sized bet. He is hoping his Kx is bigger than your Kx and that you don't have a flush or won't raise with a flush so he can lose the minimum if he is beat. If we jam here I doubt Villain will call. What are we bluffing with? We will be under bluffing here because basically we are just calling with nothing on the flop and turn if we are bluffing. Hands like AK might call the river raise thinking the amount to call is small enough to take the chance we either have a worse hand like KQ or that some small % of time we actually are bluffing. Personally i doubt we will get called by much aside from a nut flush which I think would have bet smaller on the turn and bigger on the river...
Great responses, thanks all. He did end up snapping my shove with KJ, lol. I wanted to make sure shoving wasn't a horrible overplay, but it seems like at least some folks think it's fine.
Agree raising flop is better as he is not folding much here.