2024 Fantasy Football Thread

2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?






Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

25 April 2024 at 04:46 PM
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Well I’m in the middle of my first weekly winners draft and it took me 4 picks to realize I clicked that instead of BBM lol. Was really wondering what was happening with ADPs

I have no idea how to play these


by tarheels2222 P

I think it varies a lot by room. You might have just landed in a sharper room for your first. Either way, the rooms should get softer heading into August.

Best ball summer is about to heat up. Training camps will be beginning soon and the ADPs will be reacting quickly.

I don't get it either. I don't think he's a smash by any means, but I've been drafting a lot him recently, especially since he keeps falling into the 12th. The Charger

I think the elite TE's and some of the QB's going after round 9 are gonna move up as we get into August. Being able to get Kelce in the middle of round 4 seems ludicrous. Mahomes in round 5? What are we doing here? Prescott is a steal in round 9. Herbert going in round 12 is too late. Bo Nix sometimes not being drafted is silly. I have a strong feeling D Jones is gonna have a big year. Although I think Austin Ekeler is going too late it's hard too move him up too much. I think he should go around the 10th round. I do think he is one of the strongest candidates to way surpass his ADP. Stroud is going way too early. R Stevenson is going a round or two too early. Jake Fergusen is going too early.


by jimmymcgill8 P

Well I’m in the middle of my first weekly winners draft and it took me 4 picks to realize I clicked that instead of BBM lol. Was really wondering what was happening with ADPs

I have no idea how to play these

Well here’s my team, was just trying to stack within divisions which I have no idea if that matters or not

Got sniped on Maye in the second to last rd

Qb - Jayden, Kirk

Rb - Breece, Najee, Singletary, Corum, Bucky

Wr - London, D Smith, Nabers, Mclaurin, C Samuel, Polk, Corley, LMC, Rondale

Te - McBride, Henry


by mongidig P

I think the elite TE's and some of the QB's going after round 9 are gonna move up as we get into August. Being able to get Kelce in the middle of round 4 seems ludicrous. Mahomes in round 5? What are we doing here? Prescott is a steal in round 9. Herbert going in round 12 is too late. Bo Nix sometimes not being drafted is silly. I have a strong feeling D Jones is gonna have a big year. Although I think Austin Ekeler is going too late it's

I agree w all of your takes, except I think Mondre’s ADP rises as the offseason goes on. I think almost all the RBs in that range will be going higher


by jimmymcgill8 P

I agree w all of your takes, except I think Mondre’s ADP rises as the offseason goes on. I think almost all the RBs in that range will be going higher

If the Patriots look at all competent his stock might rise. Their offensive line is still really bad. I'm highly concerned that A Gibson significantly eats into Stevenson catches. They are probably still gonna be a bad team so not many TD's. I'm just concerned we are gonna see a lot of 20 rushes for 60 yards stat lines.


by jimmymcgill8 P

Well here’s my team, was just trying to stack within divisions which I have no idea if that matters or not

Got sniped on Maye in the second to last rd

Qb - Jayden, Kirk

Rb - Breece, Najee, Singletary, Corum, Bucky

Wr - London, D Smith, Nabers, Mclaurin, C Samuel, Polk, Corley, LMC, Rondale

Te - McBride, Henry

I wonder if people are looking at the schedule and creating their strategies. Stacking within the division makes a lot of sense if the games are slated to be plus 50 over/unders. I suppose you can do what you do for week 17 and now have two shots at a game going off.

I'd be shooting for upside more than a regular best ball tournament. I'd be fading Chubb and Hockenson.

I'd be more likely to go elite TE and QB. I'd go only two at each position because of this. Maybe throw more darts at RB than a normal tournament.

I'd fade Maye, JJ McCarthy, Nix.

Maybe look to maximize your team around the week 14 bye or another week were several teams are off. Maybe take a bunch of week 14 guy's since it doesn't matter if you have a dud week.

Maybe I'll fire one up for the heck of it.


When do teams release their depth charts? Is there a site that is more accurate than others?


by mongidig P

I think the elite TE's and some of the QB's going after round 9 are gonna move up as we get into August. Being able to get Kelce in the middle of round 4 seems ludicrous. Mahomes in round 5? What are we doing here? Prescott is a steal in round 9. Herbert going in round 12 is too late. Bo Nix sometimes not being drafted is silly. I have a strong feeling D Jones is gonna have a big year. Although I think Austin Ekeler is going too late it's

It'll be interesting to see what happens to TE and QB ADP as more and more casuals come in and it's not just WR bros drafting. I suspect the TEs and QBs will stay around the same, but it'll be the RBs like Henry, Etienne, Pacheco, Jacobs, etc. as the ones moving up. When the entire position of TE and QB is suppressed, the market is likely to just roll with it.

I've posted about my Ferguson bullishness, but what makes you think he's going too early? He's definitely a replacement level TE, but given his offensive environment plus Dak's propensity to target the TE, I think he's fairly priced. Not to mention, he's still got room to improve with him only being 25 years old. I just don't see any other possibility where he's not, at worst, the third target in a pass heavy scheme, who also feasts in the red zone.

by mongidig P

I wonder if people are looking at the schedule and creating their strategies. Stacking within the division makes a lot of sense if the games are slated to be plus 50 over/unders. I suppose you can do what you do for week 17 and now have two shots at a game going off.

I'd be shooting for upside more than a regular best ball tournament. I'd be fading Chubb and Hockenson.

I'd be more likely to go elite TE and QB. I'd go only two at each posit

by jimmymcgill8 P

Well I’m in the middle of my first weekly winners draft and it took me 4 picks to realize I clicked that instead of BBM lol. Was really wondering what was happening with ADPs

I have no idea how to play these

I haven't drafted one WW team last year or this year. The payoff just isn't high enough for me given the 99.99999 percentile outcome required to achieve it.

Based on what I've heard, I think you're both on the right track.

Stack bye weeks.

Division stacking.

Massive team stacks.

You can actually get away with only 1 elite QB and/or only 1 elite TE in this format.

I think the final team is pretty solid with players who have weekly upside to be the top player at their respective position across the board.

My unresearched take is that you probably want to be even more heavy into zero RB in this format. Generally the WRs putting up top 5 weeks are the WRs at the top, whereas a RB like Corum can be a top 5 RB simply because of an injury to Kyren. And then you also want the elite QBs and elite TEs. I might even go zero RB so far that it's uncomfortable simply tacking on high upside contingent bets and/or rookies. Corum, Wright, Lloyd, Allgeier, E Mitchell, etc. are all attractive. So much so, that I think a team full of those types is perfectly fine because there is no floor to worry about.


by newguyhere P

When do teams release their depth charts? Is there a site that is more accurate than others?

The 53 man roster deadline is 8/27 at 4 pm eastern. I'm guessing the first "official" depth charts will be released around the first preseason game. I typically just use ESPN's charts, but I'm not sure if there are sites sharper than theirs.

The most important reports that will come out of training camp are the guys running with the 1s, especially when it's unexpected.


by tarheels2222 P

It'll be interesting to see what happens to TE and QB ADP as more and more casuals come in and it's not just WR bros drafting. I suspect the TEs and QBs will stay around the same, but it'll be the RBs like Henry, Etienne, Pacheco, Jacobs, etc. as the ones moving up. When the entire position of TE and QB is suppressed, the market is likely to just roll with it.

I've posted about my Ferguson bullishness, but what makes you think he's going

I don't have anything against Ferguson. He's just going in an area where a WR tier is coming to an end and there are good RBs to be had. Also this is around Kyler range. I like Bowers, Njoku and Engram better. He feels like a dead zone TE to me. I'll take him if he fits in with correlation.


by mongidig P

I don't have anything against Ferguson. He's just going in an area where a WR tier is coming to an end and there are good RBs to be had. Also this is around Kyler range. I like Bowers, Njoku and Engram better. He feels like a dead zone TE to me. I'll take him if he fits in with correlation.

Fair enough. I basically always take Engram over him, especially since that's the way the ADP falls.

I'm almost exclusively taking him in the 8th, so I'm fine passing on any remaining WRs in that range, especially since I almost always have 4-6 by then.

I don't have a ton of Kyler and mostly only take him with McBride/MHJ.

I also like the RBs from rounds 9-14, so I'll take Ferguson over the remaining round 8 RBs and fill in later. I don't feel like I'm giving up a ton taking Ferg over guys like Zamir, Moss, and Swift.

The main thing that would lower my Ferguson exposure is taking Njoku or Bowers over him. I've taken Bowers over him a few times and might beef this up a little more. I don't I think I've taken Njoku over him once.

I'm into Njoku as a spike week guy, but he still worries me with Deshaun.

Njoku averaged 6.3 .5 PPR points in the games where Deshaun played the vast majority of the snaps. He averaged 8.9 .5 PPR points with the other non-Flacco QBs. He averaged 15.2 .5 PPR points with Flacco. The Browns also added more target competition in Jeudy.

ETA: Speaking of Ferg, just opened up a Puppy slow where I got him at 100 and Dak fell back to 117. Very nice.


by mongidig P

Regarding the Weekly winner. I can see going zero RB making a lot of sense. I could see throwing darts at 9 or 10 Rbs making sense. If you have your studs everywhere else you just need to get lucky with an upside back up. I could see going RB early. Go RB/RB/REC/REC/TE/REC....then go with a couple QBs like Kyler, Prescott, Jayden, Burrow, Then rip a bunch of RBs late. This has got me thinking now.

Just noticed your WW response in my quote haha.

And yeah, thing about WW is you can make all sorts of lineups, as it's basically just weekly DFS that you're locking in before the season starts. A lot more creativity available than the standard contests.

I think something like 5-6 WRs in the first 7 rounds, your favorite elite QB, your favorite elite TE, then 8-10 RBs, depending on if you want to add another QB and/or TE along the way could be a solid build. I'd much rather volume fill RB than WR. And on average, from what I've read and heard, a RB filling your flex is generally a higher expected score than a WR filling your flex, especially needing 3 WRs and only 2 RBs.

Another thing you can do is reverse bye week stack. Week 12 and week 14 are the two heaviest weeks with 6 teams each, with a lot of elite offenses in those weeks. So instead, you build a team with players that don't have a bye in either week so you have full rosters when all of these elite offenses are not playing. And you can still use elite offenses like KC, Miami, GB, etc. to do it.

I also wouldn't really worry about ADP at all in WW, other than trying to predict where you'll be able to draft the players you're targeting. But I don't see any issues with reaching to build mega stacks.

I'd probably also do less RB stacking on offenses, even with the non-mobile QBs, since typically if your RB is going off, it's likely the QB and/or WRs from those offenses are not. At least not to the level you'd need in WW.


I hate every team I draft where I get shut out at QB

Bbm

Qb - Watson, Baker, Carr

Rb - Kamara, Brooks, Javonte, Bucky, B Allen, Foreman

Wr - Wilson, MHJ, Flowers, Godwin, Rice, Jeudy, Polk

Te - Laporta, bowers


I think it's fine. I've built worse groups than those 3 haha.

Strong at WR and TE. Solid at RB, especially if Kamara is still a volume hog, even if he's not efficient. Outs to league winners with Bucky/Allen if the guys in front of them go down. Love Brooks too. Hopefully Foreman can give you some early season production.


Qb: Kyler , Daniels

Rb: Saquon, Aaron Jones , Zamir, Brian Robinson jr , Chubb, Estime

Wr: Arsb, Dj Moore , Kirk, Hollywood , Johnston , Wandale, Bateman , Tolbert , Dev Walker

Te: Muth , Otton , Juwan


Fun team. I would have tried to add a later pass catcher for each QB, but at least they have rushing upside.



by tarheels2222 P

Fun team. I would have tried to add a later pass catcher for each QB, but at least they have rushing upside.

I’ also almost went 11 wr. I feel like my last few picks were all luxury picks.


I keep drafting out of the 11 spot, I’m up to 16% Garrett Wilson haha

I didn’t need 3te or 3qb but felt like the other positions available weren’t that exciting in 17 or 18

Qb - AR, Rodgers, Carr

Rb - Najee, Zamir, Singletary, Charb, R Davis

Wr - Wilson, Adams, Pittman, Godwin, Shaheed, Legette, McMillan

Te - Kelce, Conklin, Juwan


by jimmymcgill8 P

I keep drafting out of the 11 spot, I’m up to 16% Garrett Wilson haha

I didn’t need 3te or 3qb but felt like the other positions available weren’t that exciting in 17 or 18

Qb - AR, Rodgers, Carr

Rb - Najee, Zamir, Singletary, Charb, R Davis

Wr - Wilson, Adams, Pittman, Godwin, Shaheed, Legette, McMillan

Te - Kelce, Conklin, Juwan

Love this team


Curious have any of you guys made the finals of any of the big contests ?


This is my first year drafting a lot of best ball. I think I made 20 lus total last year and they were pretty bad haha. One that went the furthest was week 16 I think but everyone was injured


by jimmymcgill8 P

I keep drafting out of the 11 spot, I’m up to 16% Garrett Wilson haha

I didn’t need 3te or 3qb but felt like the other positions available weren’t that exciting in 17 or 18

Qb - AR, Rodgers, Carr

Rb - Najee, Zamir, Singletary, Charb, R Davis

Wr - Wilson, Adams, Pittman, Godwin, Shaheed, Legette, McMillan

Te - Kelce, Conklin, Juwan

Is Najee going before Zamir on UD?


Basically the same ADP


by Dgoat P

Curious have any of you guys made the finals of any of the big contests ?

Last year was my first year playing best ball. I fired roughy 200 teams. I ran hot and made the finals of Puppy 3. Finished 8th on the backs of CD and Davante.

This was my team.

Dak, Baker

Breece, Monty, Bigsby, Gainwell, Mostert, Chuba

CD, Davante, Watson, Godwin, Evans, Cooks, Jamo

Kincaid, Juwan, Henry

Bigsby, Gainwell and Jamo were basically zeros all year. Watson only had two good weeks.

It was a sweat fading Reed and Love on MNF. Reed left injured and Love was pulled with a big lead. I beat out 9th by .36. He had Love.


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