2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
How much of last season do we need Mostert to replicate?
Age and being injury prone aside he's not a big volume guy. Most of his points came from TDs, and while he had 18 on the ground. 12 of those were within the 5 yard line.
Maybe Jonnu takes away some of those RZ opportunities.
Thoughts?
Mostert is kind of a scary click. I feel intuitively there will be massive regression TD wise for him. There could be injury regression as well. On the other hand his price is nice considering what he did last year. I suppose I'm not fading but I won't be overweight to him.
I don’t I prefer the bigger contests . But I think they just pay out top 2 or 3 of each pod .
I prefer the big contests as well. My concern is that it's a long shot to win one of those tournaments let alone make a big cash. Maybe I should mix in some smaller tournaments.
Does anybody know what the average advance rate for BBM is? I'm trying to figure out roughly how much this year will cost me. How about the percentage chance of getting to the finals?
Odds to make the finals in bbm is something like .08% right, assuming no skill edge?
2 of 12
1 of 13
1 of 16
Finals
At 50 bbm, gonna take a break on those until closer to the season. Will stick to time boxes until mid/late August
These are my last 2 for now in bbm
Qb - Kyler, Rodgers, Bryce
Rb - Mixon, Brooks, Benson, Javonte, Charb
Wr - Puka, MHJ, Dell, Godwin, Legette, Corley, Tez Walker, Dortch
Te - Laporta, Conklin
Qb - Hurts, Cousins
Rb - Cook, Brooks, Brob, Lloyd, Allgeier, Estime
Wr - Ajb, Olave, Diggs, Ladd, Shaheed, Corley, LMC, Rondale
Te - Pitts, Goedert
Odds to make the finals in bbm is something like .08% right, assuming no skill edge?
2 of 12
1 of 13
1 of 16
Finals
Yes, expectation is to make the finals every 1 out of 8 seasons if you max enter.
At 50 bbm, gonna take a break on those until closer to the season. Will stick to time boxes until mid/late August
These are my last 2 for now in bbm
Qb - Kyler, Rodgers, Bryce
Rb - Mixon, Brooks, Benson, Javonte, Charb
Wr - Puka, MHJ, Dell, Godwin, Legette, Corley, Tez Walker, Dortch
Te - Laporta, Conklin
Qb - Hurts, Cousins
Rb - Cook, Brooks, Brob, Lloyd, Allgeier, Estime
Wr - Ajb, Olave, Diggs, Ladd, Shaheed, Corley, LMC, Rondale
Te - Pitts, Goed
2 nice squads if the RBs hit. Let’s go Brooks.
I’m interested to see what UD does next. The Pit Bull is about to close. The Eliminator just crossed 50%. BBM almost 40%. WW over 40%.
The Marathon and Sprint are moving slowly, but I think they’ll end up filling near the season begin, as people fire bullets hoping for overlay. I don’t care for The Marathon, but I’d play The Sprint at a lower price point. Hopefully they adjust that next season.
Receiver comes out on Netflix tomorrow . I assume casuals may start drafting now and make the adp for the guys on the show rise .
Yes, expectation is to make the finals every 1 out of 8 seasons if you max enter.
2 nice squads if the RBs hit. Let’s go Brooks.
I’m interested to see what UD does next. The Pit Bull is about to close. The Eliminator just crossed 50%. BBM almost 40%. WW over 40%.
The Marathon and Sprint are moving slowly, but I think they’ll end up filling near the season begin, as people fire bullets hoping for overlay. I don’t care for The Marathon, but I
Why are we playing BBM if the odds of making the final are ridiculous?
At 50 bbm, gonna take a break on those until closer to the season. Will stick to time boxes until mid/late August
These are my last 2 for now in bbm
Qb - Kyler, Rodgers, Bryce
Rb - Mixon, Brooks, Benson, Javonte, Charb
Wr - Puka, MHJ, Dell, Godwin, Legette, Corley, Tez Walker, Dortch
Te - Laporta, Conklin
Qb - Hurts, Cousins
Rb - Cook, Brooks, Brob, Lloyd, Allgeier, Estime
Wr - Ajb, Olave, Diggs, Ladd, Shaheed, Corley, LMC, Rondale
Te - Pitts, Goed
Both of these teams are very good.
BBM draft 3. Slot 2. Mildly drunk.
QB) Prescott, Herbert
RB) Achane, Pacheco, Conner, Dowdell, Gibson
WR) Lamb, D Smith, McLaurin, Addison, BTJ, Q Johnson, J Baker, DJ Chark
TE) Freimuth, Fant, Jonnu
Ugly
QB - Allen, Levis
RB - Breece, Javonte, Zeke, Chase, Gibson, Guerendo
WR - Nico, Flowers, Ridley, Coleman, Odunze, Gabe, Roman, Boyd, DPJ
TE - Njoku, Jonnu, Woods
I'm 3 drafts into BBM and I'm starting to wonder why I am doing this. It feels like playing at a poker table full of solid regs and all we are doing is moving the money around the table. Everybody seems to be sharp and constructing really good rosters. Maybe this will significantly change when the casuals start drafting. Also, it seems like such a long shot to make significant money. Draft Kings feels like stealing money from a baby. I just hate the way they organize your drafted players during the draft.
The DK interface sucks so bad. But yeah, BBM is akin to a lottery where you feel like you slightly have some control. DK is too, and while you feel like you're taking money in your own respective room, think of all of the other rooms where sharper players are doing the same.
With that said, last year's winning roster had some big hits and some bumps. It even had one QB with no team correlation and one QB with only RB correlation, neither of which are rushing QBs.
From the 11 spot. The good ole 3-6-6-3.
Tua (9.11), Love (12.02), CJ (17.11)
Mattison (6.02), Swift (7.11), Conner (8.02), Mostert (13.11), Chuba (16.02), Kyren (18.02)
ARSB (1.11), CD (2.02), Amari (3.11), Watson (4.02), Pickens (5.11), Reed (15.11)
Muth (10.02), LaPorta (11.11), Juwan (14.02)
1. He drafted in late August and basically smashed rounds 11 through 18.
2. Spike weeks from Pickens and Amari carried him through w16.
3. He game stacked Det/Dal, GB/Min, and Phi/Ari.
With that said, only the ARSB/CD game stack hit his lineup, granted those were his first two picks.
The winning lineup was
Love - 28.44
Conner - 25.8
Kyren - 29.1
ARSB - 19.1
CD - 33.7
Pickens - 16.6
Juwan - 19
Reed - 23.9
Total of 195.64 and could have been even higher if Reed didn't leave injured and Love wasn't pulled early.
4. He 3 inactive players in w17 in Cooper, Watson, and Mostert.
5. At the end of the day, anything can work, so be creative and push things that look uncomfortably risky. I'm still having trouble doing this, but I'm trying to get outside of my comfort zone box when constructing, which also can help uniqueness against the field.
Three new UD contests.
1. The Hound Dog 2 - 5 max entry, $6 buy in, $20k to first. 20 second, 30 second, and slow drafts available.
2. The Pug 2 - 3 max entry, $12 buy in, $20k to first. Fast draft only with either 15 seconds or 30 seconds.
3. The Golden 3 - Single entry, $10 buy in, $25k to first. It's winner take all. Decent advance rates of 2/12, 1/4, and 1/5, and a 23 seat final, but I'll pass on this one.
These will fill quickly.
The DK interface sucks so bad. But yeah, BBM is akin to a lottery where you feel like you slightly have some control. DK is too, and while you feel like you're taking money in your own respective room, think of all of the other rooms where sharper players are doing the same.
With that said, last year's winning roster had some big hits and some bumps. It even had one QB with no team correlation and one QB with only RB correlation, neithe
Do you know what the BBM pay out for advancing to week 15 and beyond is? I just see the overall pay outs.
I'm shocked that Puca wasn't on this team.
Three new UD contests.
1. The Hound Dog 2 - 5 max entry, $6 buy in, $20k to first. 20 second, 30 second, and slow drafts available.
2. The Pug 2 - 3 max entry, $12 buy in, $20k to first. Fast draft only with either 15 seconds or 30 seconds.
3. The Golden 3 - Single entry, $10 buy in, $25k to first. It's winner take all. Decent advance rates of 2/12, 1/4, and 1/5, and a 23 seat final, but I'll pass on this one.
These will fill quickly.
What's your reasoning for passing on the Golden?
Are these gonna fill in a day or two?
Do you know what the BBM pay out for advancing to week 15 and beyond is? I just see the overall pay outs.
I'm shocked that Puca wasn't on this team.
So w15 is simply $35 for the 8,625 - 112,112 range.
8,624 will advance to w16. The w16 payouts will be ordered based on total team scores of the teams that do not advance to w17 from 540 through 8,624 and then fall into those payout tiers.
I suppose I could fire the bullet for $10 at a chance to win $25k. The chance of winning is .036%, so worse than making the BBM finals at .08%. Granted, the buy in is $10 vs $25 and the "min" payoff is $25k versus $3,750.
These will fill in less than 24 hours. The Hound Dog and Golden are already over 30% filled. The Pug is at 10%.
If any of you guys know baseball , DraftKings has a promotion if you do a 20 dollar baseball best ball you get a free ticket into the 20 dollar football best ball .
Hound
Qb - Lamar, Levis
Rb - Swift, mostert, Gus, Chubb, R Davis, Pierce
Wr - CD, Waddle, D Smith, Nuk, Odunze, Legette, Boyd, Agholor
Te - Andrews, Goedert
Really like this one in the golden
Qb - Dak, Jayden
Rb - Saquon, Corum, Gus, Dowdle, Chandler, B Allen
Wr - CD, Evans, Mclaurin, Nuk, Ladd, LMC, M Wilson, Rondale
Te - McBride, Fant
I ended up firing The Golden. Did a slow draft so I can think through it. Of all the contests, this one especially is a take your guys draft.
Fired 2 of my Pugs.
1:
Stroud, Purdy
Mixon, Connor, Corum, Davis, Chuba, Mitchell
ARSB, Deebo, Tank, Rashee, Big Mike, McMillan, Raymond, Slayton
Andrews, Njoku
2:
Hurts, Cousins, Nix
Kyren, Brooks, Spears, Allgeier, Herbert, Estime
AJB, London, Hopkins, BTJ, Gabe, Polk, Franklin
Engram, Goedert
I like team 2 more.
Hound. slot 4. I left myself thin again at back up QB and TE. Got sniped on Burrow, Herbert, Geno.
QB) Kyler, Maye
RB) Warren, Benson, Edwards, Ekeler, Lloyd, Chubb
WR) Chase, Aiyuk, Metcalf, Higgins, McConkey, D Douglas, D Robinson, J baker
TE) Mcbride, Hurst.
I ended up firing The Golden. Did a slow draft so I can think through it. Of all the contests, this one especially is a take your guys draft.
Fired 2 of my Pugs.
1:
Stroud, Purdy
Mixon, Connor, Corum, Davis, Chuba, Mitchell
ARSB, Deebo, Tank, Rashee, Big Mike, McMillan, Raymond, Slayton
Andrews, Njoku
2:
Hurts, Cousins, Nix
Kyren, Brooks, Spears, Allgeier, Herbert, Estime
AJB, London, Hopkins, BTJ, Gabe, Polk, Franklin
Engram, Goedert
I like team 2 m
A little fragile at RB on team one but everything else is very nice.
Team two is solid.
Looks like best ball drafts have exploded in popularity - is this gonna work to combine season long fantasy football posts with best ball posts?
You would think the best ball guys would slow down after the season starts but we know they just can't help themselves but to brag incessantly about their 3-4 good teams out of 100 or so.
Maybe dynasty and season long in 1 thread and best ball and weekly in another? Maybe it doesn't even matter? Maybe we have lost enough regular posters this sub-forum cant support 2 FF threads?
Sir, I’m going to have at least 10 good teams out of 700 to brag about.
In all seriousness, probably not enough season long/dynasty traffic these days to warrant two separate threads. But I’ll participate in both if that’s the route y’all want to go.
We are already over halfway to the total posts from the thread covering all of last season.
