Russian Invasion of Ukraine
More purges in Russia for being too patriotic:
Spoiler
The memo follows one leaked last month which denounced Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and other "hurrah-patriots" as a threat to the Kremlin. Solovyov's TV show on the Russia-1 channel was denounced for hosting a nightly "gang rape of the authorities".
The new memo, published by the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, is in much the same vein. It reiterates several of the same points as its predecessor, dismissing liberals, the left and 'hipsters' as possible threats. It calls the ultra-nationalist "patriots" assets of the West.
The memo complains that the "patriots" spend too much time highlighting problems with the war effort and creating a false impression of a "fifth column" around Putin who "rule our president". This, it claims, is part of a concerted "patriots against Putin" effort.
As well as attacking propagandists, the memo castigates "a large network of feminist and women's organisations" who it says are preparing a "full-scale female hysteria". These, it says, are "ordinary nervous and hysterical women who are afraid for their children and husbands."
Public humiliation for perceived sleights against Russia/Putin (probably won't be posting more of these for obvious reasons):
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More explosions on Kerch Bridge; drone hits building in Moscow; CNN article on the drones and Ukraine's propaganda around them:
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New fronts and Romanov confirming Urozhaine captured (probably happened a few days ago imo), Russia moving around troops:
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Interesting read on the 50 Leopards recently purchased, and why 50 need to be bought in order to field 30. (WARNING TO THOSE TRIGGERED BY DOGS: THIS VILE MISCREANT HAS A DOG AS HIS AVATAR AND THEREFORE IS LIKELY A NAFO MEMBER. If all NAFO posts are this good, then it's really a solid organization):
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More Russians begging for proper support; Russians forced to clear a minefield because their commander already reported it as taken. Commander shoots soldiers if they don't attack when told to, 80% casualties for those who do attack:
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One Russian soldier told his mother, "If we don’t take Dovhenke, there are three criminal cases now hanging over the divisional commander, he [will be] imprisoned ... It was reported three weeks ago that we had taken Dovhenke. And we, over there, are [still] fighting for it."
Another soldier, Daniil Frolkin, said that his commander in the 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade had falsely reported the capture of a forest belt. The man was injured in a Ukrainian attack and had to be evacuated in Frolkin's armoured vehicle.
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Edit/MH:
Key:
ALCM: Air launched cruise missile
AFU: Armed Forces of Ukraine
ATACMS: Army Tactical Missile System
CEPA: Center for European Policy Analysis
HIMARS: High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System
ISW: Institute for the Study of War
KA-52: Kamov Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopter used by Russia
MOD: Ministry of Defense
Prig: Yevgeny Prigozhin, deceased leader of Wagner
PMC: Private military companies
SBU: Security Services of Ukraine (The law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government)
UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, commonly referred to as drones.
WAPO: Washington Post
Bluegrassplayer
RECRUITMENT
1. Recruits asked to make promotional videos while training
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MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. GREAT READ Overview of military aid, production and current battlefield by Kofman
2. How delays in military aid and hurting Ukraine's efforts
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RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Bloomberg "Gunvor Says Drones Shut 600,000 Barrels of Russian Refining"
This thread has most of the videos of the Moscow terrorist attack in it. Very graphic obviously:
UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL
1. ft article "US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries"
2. Ukraine response
3. "Ukraine denies US requested to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries"
RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
1. Video of Russian missiles striking the Dnipro dam
2. Different angle of the dam strike
3. Russia launches huge strike, a look at what was fired and what go through (the day before all missiles were struck down, before that there had been a long pause on missile attacks)
4. Rocket strike in middle of residential area
5. People hiding in Kyiv subway
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MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK
1. Short BBC clip on the attack
2. CBS article "ISIS claims responsibility for Russia attack that killed at least 40 killed and injured dozens in shooting at Moscow concert hall"
3. Putin dismissed warnings of a terrorist attack as Western blackmail
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MILITARY AID
1. NBC article "Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene files motion to oust Mike Johnson as House speaker"
2. "Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher will resign early, leaving House majority hanging by a thread"
UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL
1. Continued attacks
2. Reuters article "Damaged refining capacity drives up Russia's gasoline, diesel prices"
3. Russian monthly export revenues
4. GOOD READ overview of the situation
5. UK MOD on last week's strikes
6. Fires
UKRAINIAN STRIKES AGAINST RUSSIA
1. Missile strikes in Crimea
2. Claim of partisan attack as well
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MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK
ISIS has released bodycam footage of the attack (I'm not including the video as it's extremely graphic)
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. GRAPHIC Videos of Russia's Chinese Desert Cross getting hit. (They've jokingly referred to as golf carts)
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MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK
1. Current Russian narratives on the attack
2. Mark Galeotti on the difficult position this puts Putin in
3. Lukashenko says the terrorists were fleeing to Belarus, directly contradicting Putin
4. Galeotti on the current narrative in Russia
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RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
A lot of this got overshadowed by the terrorist attack, but one of the largest missile strikes of the war occurred which completely crippled energy infrastructure. It's not really in the news, and not any tweets which really summarize it, but a lot of Kharkiv is without power and the dam will likely take years to repair.
1. Hypersonic missiles struck down on their way to Kyiv
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UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL
1. A look at Russian gasoline
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. Ground drone deploys mines near trenches which are detonated remotely
2. GRAPHIC Russian BMP struck by drone and then ambushed
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Anders Puck Nielsen on Summer offensive (overly positive, but still good imo)
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RECRUITMENT
1. France 24 video on Nepalese who joined Russian military
2. UK MOD on Russians with disabilities
3. NYT article "Pardoned for Serving in Ukraine, They Return to Russia to Kill Again" on the consequences of pardoning convicts
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RUSSIAN STRIKES ON UKRAINE
The Economist article "The Kremlin wants to make Ukraine’s second city unliveable"
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/04...
MOSCOW TERRORIST ATTACK
Russian media attempt to blame Ukraine
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ORSK DAM COLLAPSE
A dam had two breaches, this has resulted in an oil refinery being shut down here, lots of people forced from homes and looting. Today there was mention of a third breach in another dam.
1. Videos of people left homeless from the dam collapse protesting
2. More videos
3. Flooded homes
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. GOOD READ Analysis of the importance of Chasiv Yar
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MILITARY AID
1. Reuters article "US Republicans urge Ukraine aid vote, after 'Russian propaganda' warnings"
2. Axios article "Turner: Russian propaganda "being uttered on the House floor"
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-repu...
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/07/russian...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Russia seeks gasoline from Kazakhstan in case of shortages, sources say"
2. ISW on Russia attempting to import gasoline from Belarus and Khazakstan
RUSSIAN STRIKES ON UKRAINE
1. Ft article "Russia changes tack on targeting Ukraine’s energy plants"
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RECRUITMENT
1. Ukraine commander on the necessity for mobilization
2. UK MOD on Russian recruitment efforts
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. FPV hits target which causes a huge secondary explosion
2. GRAPHIC Desert Cross hits a landmine
3. Russian drone hit by EW
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RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
1. Russia destroys Ukraine's largest thermal power plant
2. More videos
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RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Graph showing gasoline production
2. Anders Puck Nielson on Russia's economy and the strikes against refineries
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MILITARY AID
1. Discharge petition 25 signatures away
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. ft article "Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’"
2. Rob Lee on the importance of Chasiv Yar
RECRUITMENT
1. Ukrainian Mobilization bill passed without demobilization part
2. UK MOD on Putin signing in laws exempting soldiers from payments
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Over this last week I was hoping to catch up on stuff that I missed during my vacation but I'm not even close. Overall things are extremely grim, probably the worst they have been since the war started.
I was shocked to see that the Ukrainian mobilization bill passed without the demobilization bill attached to it. This essentially means anyone who is conscripted could be fighting until the war is over. At least something is passed though. With the current state of the war Ukrainians will be sent to the front lines without enough training, and the longer this is stalled the more that will be true for.
Russia has knocked out a lot of Ukraine's energy network and continues to attack despite enormous losses. I think they continue to throw bodies and equipment forward because they fear that it's only a matter of time until more ammunition arrives. The Czech initiative ammo is supposed to arrive in June, if the House can get into shape then they could potentially pass the aid bill soon. Last year it would have been a disaster if Israel was removed from the bill, and now there are people trying to decouple them again. I no longer know if that would be good or bad after Israel has lost a lot of its goodwill.
Russia's attacks are truly awful and show no regard for the lives of the people fighting for Russia. It is appalling to see. If Ukraine had enough ammo then I don't think these attacks would accomplish anything at all, however with things as they are, Russia is able to push forward albeit with devastating losses. It's clear they can't keep this up forever, but at the same time how long they can keep this up is unknown. Constantly in the news there is worry about the "Summer Offensive", but at this point I have no idea what that means. 2024 is clearly going to be one continual offensive, and Russia shows no plans of stopping. I feel like news regarding the "Summer Offensive" really detracts from the fact that there is an ongoing offensive now which has pretty much been going since last year. Russia does not care if they are losing far more troops due to the weather conditions, they are going to keep throwing bodies at their objectives. The only differentiation I can really think of is that this summer they will at least attempt conventional tactics instead of whatever it is they are doing now.
It's grim.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russian assault group using motorcycles to attack trenches
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MILITARY AID
1. AP article "US intelligence finding shows China surging equipment sales to Russia to help war effort in Ukraine"
2. Ukraine Minister of Foreign affairs saying no aid means USA has no leverage on how Ukraine conducts the war
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Storm Z telegram discussing Russia's huge losses, but managing to move forward despite
2. Daily losses from yesterday (It's like this a lot. Massive losses on both sides at the moment)
3. Syrsky claims Russia's goal is to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9
4. Russian telegram discussing the fighting at Robotyne
5. ft article "Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’"
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone strikes camouflaged defense system
2. Trench view of an explosion from a Russian glide bomb
3. Explosions from an ATACMS strike on Russia airfield in Crimea
4. Ukrainians throw explosive charges into Russian positions then retreat in humvees
5. More glide bomb explosions
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UKRAINE STRIKES ON RUSSIA
1. Explosions from an ATACMS strike on Russia airfield in Crimea
2. Assessment of what likely happened
3. Ukraine strike deep in Russia
4. Video of an oil refinery after it was hit
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MILITARY AID
1. Analysis of drones, why their importance is exaggerated, and why Ukraine mostly needs artillery shells
2. Polls show Republicans still support aid to Ukraine despite far right attempts to prevent it
3. Contents of the foreign aid bill to be voted on on Saturday
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1.GOOD READ Importance of Chasiv Yar
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BATTLE CLIPS
1. Improvised armor on Russian tanks
2. Russian with counter thermal rain coat
3. Vide of Ukraine hitting a strategic bomber 300km behind frontline (these are capable of shooting nukes, but hav been equipped with cruise missiles)
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MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Visually confirmed losses from yesterday
2. Glide bombs striking Chasiv Yar
3. Video of Russian armored losses at Novomykhailivka (village south of Avdiivka)
4. After losses near Chasiv Yar, the 67th mechanized brigade is to be reorganized. (This tweet does not really get into the heart of the matter. This was one of the private militaries which was made a part of Ukraine's defense force. Under Zaluzhnyi they were allowed a large amount of autonomy. Syrski is seeking to make all of forces more uniform, including this one. This group was resisting this effort and was sending mobilized soldiers under their command into the most dangerous areas while holding back their core soldiers. It's an incredibly bad look, although good that this type of thing is being handled.)
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CRIMEA
1. Video of ATACMS taking out the four s-400 air defense in Crimea
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MILITARY AID
1. GOOD READ AP article "House’s Ukraine, Israel aid package gains Biden’s support as Speaker Johnson fights to keep his job"
2. Results of the rules vote shows overwhelming support for the Ukraine bill in the house
3. Zelenskyy continuing to ask for air defense as casualties from Russian strikes grow
RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
1. One of Russia's leading propagandists explaining how their propaganda works
2. Reuters article "Kremlin says any new 'colonial' U.S. aid to Ukraine won't change frontline situation"
3. Snyder addressing MTG's concerns over Ukrainian nazis
An American who went to fight for Russia in 2014 and was a favorite of their propaganda machine allegedly kidnapped and killed by Russian soldiers
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HYBRID WARFARE
ft article "Germany arrests suspected Russian spies over bombing plot"
Dieter S, 39, and Alexander J, 37, had been in communication with Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) to plan acts of sabotage on German soil, said the federal prosecutor. The Russian spy agency has been accused by western governments of the attempted assassination in 2018 of Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England, and other murders across Europe in recent years, including a 2019 fatal attack in Berlin.
MILITARY AID
Finally a breakthrough with the House of Reps. I personally think Johnson was forced into a position where he realized the danger of being removed as speaker was more if he didn't bills up, than if he didn't, but less cynical people think that recent briefings that Ukraine will collapse soon if aid isn't passed made him have a change of heart. Either way, things are finally moving forward. It's disgusting that this is 6 months late, but at least something is happening.
Ammo from the Czech initiative is supposed to arrive in June, which means that Ukraine can allow more ammunition to the frontlines now.
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
Robotyne has surprised me. I thought that Ukraine's position there was largely indefensible, but they have held on and inflicted a ton of losses. No idea how much they've suffered though.
I thought Ukraine would have to pull back from Krynky as well, but they have not.
Russia continues pushing after taking Avdiivka, and things have come to a head at Novomykhailivka in the south. I believe this is a key village for Russia to take Donetsk.
Attacks on Chasiv Yar are also happening.
The rate of attacks on the last two fronts are really crazy, especially for this time of year. The ground is not great for assaults, but Russia continues pushing despite crazy losses. I believe that have been doing this for a few reasons: fear that USA aid would be passed, realization that 2024 is the year where they will hold the largest advantage, and a belief that they can collapse Ukraine's frontline if they push hard enough, leading to capturing a major city. It's a huge gamble as their losses are not sustainable; even if they can recruit enough to replenish the troops lost, they are unable to continue refurbishing old Soviet equipment forever and eventually will have to rely on their production capabilities which are not much. Ukraine will lose both Chasiv Yar and Novomykhailivka imo, but how long they can hold onto them is going to be extremely important, especially Chasiv Yar.
STRIKES
Both countries are continuing their strike campaigns. Ukraine's strikes on Russia's oil production is hurting. Russia is looking at importing gasoline from their neighbors, dropping the quality of gasoline significantly, and also is unable to export and thus get a large portion of their income. Meanwhile this strike against Crimea allagedly took out 4 s-400s, which are extremely expensive and in demand air defense systems. Clearly Ukraine has plans to continue pressuring Crimea in the future. Ukraine's strikes against Russian production have also shown promising results, hitting a drone factory (with some controversy regarding it), and several heavy equipment factories. They were also helped by the flooding taking out a factory.
Russia is attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Previously Russia was doing this during winter in an attempt to freeze Ukrainians into submission, which is largely regarded as a war crime. Since winter was resulting in fewer attacks on the front line, AD units were moved to cities to defend against these attacks. This year a combination of bad things happened to Ukraine: they ran out of air defense, Russia developed glide bombs capable of decent accuracy which were attacking throughout winter, and Russia also changed their attacks from pretty much purely civilian targets. After winter ended this year, Ukraine moved a lot of their AD to the front lines as they were needed, which combined with the fact that AD missiles were low already, meant that defenses for energy infrastructure were thin. Russia has continued to strike the infrastructure, using large amounts of missiles to saturate a single target. The thermal plant that was hit had over 10 missiles fired at it for example (I think 14).
War on the Rocks episode "CAN UKRAINE STABILIZE ITS LINES?" paywalled so summary in spoiler
https://warontherocks.com/episode/therus...
Spoiler
CAN UKRAINE STABILIZE ITS LINES?
Current situation
Steadily negative trajectory since fall of Avdiivka. Russia is gaining a few kilometers every couple of weeks, and is past the secondary line Ukraine was holding behind Avdiivka and is slowly inching towards the main fallback line Ukraine plans to hold.
Russia has advanced to the outskirts of Chasiv Yar where Ukraine is holding a canal. Chasiv Yar situation is not good. Ground attack aircraft fly freely. Air defense has been degraded to where Russia can not only drop glide bombs, but can also perform close air support missions. Chasiv Yar is important because it is high ground west of Bakhmut. If it falls then Russia can hit a lot of the roads, lines of communications, and towns.
Overall strategy of Russia is to attack the main transit hubs and population centers. If Russia can take these places then it will make the defense of Donetsk very difficult. It seems like Russia is creeping forward now, but it could result in gradual and then very fast advances.
Russia is taking heavy losses, especially in mechanized equipment and casualties. There is still likely to be another offensive or "surge of effort" in late spring or early summer which will be extremely challenging. Ukraine is trying to build defenses: a forward main line, a secondary line of fortification points, and a third line defending population centers.
Air defense
Ukraine started the war with a massive soviet inheritance of air defense and has gone through a lot of it. Ukraine was given a lot of Western air defense, but has to decide to use these to defend cities, critical sites (airfields, power plants, facilities), or the 1000km front line.
Ukraine is using mobile air defense (gun crews) to intercept drones but that doesn't help with many of the problems. It is responsible for probably 40% of missile and drone intercepts.
No one wants to give away their air defense. Ukraine is arguing that if these systems aren't to defend against Russia then why are they even in Europe? Secondary issue is that no one who produces air defense produces ammunition for the systems in large quantities. No one wants to make the infrastructure investments to produce far more because they might not be purchased after this war.
Impact of the new aid package
Most essential thing it does is buy time. Hopefully it will be enough ammo for a year or longer. It will help stabilize the front line which is priority #1. It will allow Ukraine to give more ammo and help against the fire disparity against Russia. Important to note Ukraine will not have a fires superiority. It will maybe take the disadvantage from 6 to 1 down to 3 to 1.
What does stabilized front line mean?
On a front line this long, Ukraine will need to retreat in areas. Stabilizing means that Ukraine can secure key transit hubs so that no part of the line is at high risk of collapse. It's often difficult to tell if the line is stabilized.
After the frontline is stabilized
Hopefully the aid package will help reconstitute the military: equip new units, maintain equipment which is falling into disrepair.
Hopefully by reducing the fires disadvantage, Ukraine can get a quality advantage, especially through the use of precision strike systems. Unfortunately the effectiveness of these systems drops significantly over the course of a war.
Best case scenario is that Ukraine is able to create some form of offensive potential and take initiative some year. Ukraine is behind the timeline for what Kofman was hoping late last year, making this less likely, but the potential is there. (Manpower is going to be the biggest issue by far.)
What happens if future aid packages don't come through?
It's unlikely that another 60 billion aid package is passed. However, the West as a whole will be producing more ammo next year, and Russia's relative advantage is likely to decrease over time.
(Aside: Russia is not acting like time is on their side. They could be holding back and hoping that Trump gets elected or something else, but they are not. Their behavior gives the impression that they are in a hurry.)
If USA were to back out completely, it would be very bad. They lead the efforts, provide the "overwhelming percentage" of ammo. Hopefully if USA left, Europe would pick up the pace, but it would still be bad.
Kofman is wary that the people involved in the ammo initiatives could be conveying an overly optimistic timeline.
It would be good if the upcoming election, and the growing focus on the Pacific, caused Europe to take greater initiative in their own defense.
Ukraine's mobilization laws
Ukraine needs several hundred thousand men. They need to mobilize at a much higher rate than they have been. Efforts like sending the territorial defense brigades, which are the oldest men serving in the military, brings the average age in the army up even though it was already high to begin with. These kind of demographics issues need to be addressed.
The minister in charge of this also has his own vision of bringing Ukraine to be more in line with how the west handles recruitment.
The demobilization bill was removed from the law, to be debated over the next few months. (This is likely because Ukraine fears if they enabled this now they would lose too much of the military too soon.)
The laws are an indicator that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, although several months late.
Currently there is a discussion of how to help Ukraine train troops in Ukraine, and how many can go to western countries to train. This is a year long project.
Last year we saw what training brigades for 3 months and sending them out gets you. This time it's about addressing structural issues which were always a problem. Hopefully this puts Ukraine in a better position in 2025.
Final thoughts
What is going to happen between now and June?
Big question is can Ukraine stabilize the front line. Will there be a large Russian offensive, or more of what is going on now with some surges?
Ukraine is juggling many things right now.
Will USA aid to Ukraine continue next year? It is possible that the war enters an unrecoverable trajectory, and that whoever is in office next year can't even do much about it. If Ukraine can hold their line, then they enter 2025 in a much stronger position.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. UGV attacking trench
2. Cluster bombs on glide kits
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Aid ordered to be stationed in Poland ahead of time in preparation for the bill to pass
2. Politico article "Next Ukraine package to be larger than normal, include armored vehicles"
3. Long range atacms being sent to Ukraine (long debated)
4. UK sends largest ever aid package
5. Bloomberg article "UK Sends Ukraine Long-Range Missiles in Biggest Aid Package"
6. Russian concern over the part of the bill regarding confiscating Russian funds
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. WSJ article "U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort"
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-se...
RECRUITMENT
1. CNN article "How a store manager from India ended up killed on the battlefields of Ukraine fighting for Russia" on how a man from India was promised a job in Russia, duped into signing up for the military including signing documents in Russia he couldn't read, sent to the front line where he was killed
2. Kyiv Post article "Ukraine Suspends Consular Services for Men Living Abroad"
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/19/india...
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31564
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Ukrainian unit allegedly abandoned their position causing a surge from Russia
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Shoigu's second in command arrested for taking a bribe
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MILITARY AID
USA aid finally passed. It was probably sent to Ukraine immediately, but actually getting it to the front lines could take weeks. Russia is doing all it can do to slow it down, including striking railway lines which is not really the best use of missiles normally.
UK finally committed to ramping up military production, says they will meet 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS
There was a Russian breakthrough at Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka. A brigade which was sent to relieve another brigade left their positions and Russia was able to punch through. A lot of blame and insults being thrown at the brigade which left their positions, but very little known about what exactly happened. Russia advanced a significant amount, likely several miles. This means Ukraine will lose a few villages, which doesn't seem like a big deal but it is. For a long time every tree line, hill, and landmark had a name because taking it was a significant deal and extremely difficult. Losing several villages is an extremely fast pace considering the stage of the war. And more importantly as Kofman said in the summary above, these things happen slowly, then gradually then quickly. Ukraine could strengthen their lines and push Russia back, or they could break and Ukraine loses significant ground. It's an extremely tense time in the war. Hopefully aid arrives, mobilization goes smoothly, and things pick up, but until then it will be tense.
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. UK to up GDP spent on defense to 2.5% by 2030
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Anders Puck Nielsen video "What will Russia do when Ukraine gets more weapons?"
2. Politico article "The US secretly sent long-range ATACMS to Ukraine — and Kyiv used them"
3. NYT article "Russia Strikes Ukraine’s Railways and Vows to Slow Arrival of U.S. Aid"
4. Economist article "Who is supplying Russia’s arms industry?"
Spoiler
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/world...
Spoiler
Despite western sanctions, Russia’s arms industry is booming. Its production of crucial weapons for its war effort in Ukraine has dramatically increased since the start of the fighting. By the start of this year the monthly capacity for long-range missiles, for example, was thought to have more than doubled. The growth is made possible by new international suppliers, who provide parts, electronics and tools.
Piecing together this supply chain is difficult; the goods are often traded via a complex network of shell companies. But a study of trade data by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (csis), a think-tank in Washington, dc, suggests that many of the imports lead back to one country
Firms in China have provided Russia with semiconductors that are crucial for making various weapon systems.
They have also provided navigation equipment, parts for jets, and more generic products such as ball bearings, used in artillery pieces and other equipment.
Transaction records suggest that Russia’s imports of precision manufacturing equipment used for critical hardware (known as computer numerical controlled—or cnc—tools) largely come from China, too (see chart 3). Between March and July of last year there were more than 10,000 transactions a month from China to Russia involving these tools. Each record could contain multiple goods, so the actual number of machines provided is likely to be much higher.
The charts suggest that Russia’s imports of such goods began to rise after President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation in September 2022. But the surge in deliveries from China came in March 2023, when Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, met Mr Putin in Moscow. China has maintained that it is neutral in the war, and does not provide weapons. But the export of these smaller items confirms that it is contributing much else to the Kremlin’s war machine. Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, has already rebuked China for being the “primary contributor” to Russia’s “defence industrial base”.
Trade with China is not the only problem for Western countries trying to hobble Russia’s defence industry. Despite extensive export controls, Russia still received many Western-made components in 2023. Goods from France, Germany and Japan, for example, made their way to Russia through third countries, such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, who have not signed up to Western sanctions. A study by the Royal United Services Institute think-tank published in December found that Compel jsc, one of Russia’s leading microelectronics distributors, had imported huge volumes of Western microelectronics through not just Hong Kong, but also Germany.
Enforcing stricter rules is not easy. For one thing, Russia is increasingly using lower-grade equipment, partly because it has depleted stocks of more advanced systems. This means that Russian arms manufacturers are seeking technology that is also used for civilian purposes, the flow of which is harder to restrict in international supply chains.
Another complication is that Ukraine also depends partly on Chinese manufacturers for some machine parts (though these shipments are much smaller than those China supplies to Russia). Anyone designing and enforcing Western sanctions has to consider whether imposing further restrictions on some Chinese firms may also impede Ukraine’s military procurement.
GREAT READ Rob Lee with overview of the state of the war
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. NBC article "They were promised jobs in Russia. They ended up fighting in Ukraine." on Indians coerced to fight for Russia
2. Ukrinform article "Ukrainian consulates abroad stop providing services to men of call-up age – FM Kuleba"
3. ft article "Poland and Lithuania to help Ukraine repatriate men of fighting age"
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russi...
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society...
https://www.ft.com/content/dd1d3074-61af...
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. GREAT READ Tatarigami on Chasiv Yar, Ocheretyne
2. Overview of the Ocheretyne breach and what else is happening west of Avdiivka
Spoiler
UKRAINE'S ATTACKS AGAINST RUSSIAN OIL
1. Burning oil terminal
Spoiler
RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
1. Reuters article "Russia hits Ukrainian energy facilities in three regions, Kyiv says"
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. ATACMS striking a training ground
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Kings and Generals video "Battle of Chasiv Yar is Critical for Ukraine and Russia"
2. Tatarigami on current status of Orech
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Blinken on targeting Chinese aid to Russia
2. Reuters article "US issues hundreds of sanctions targeting Russia, takes aim at Chinese companies"
RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES
1. Russian strikes Odesa with cluster bomb
2. Reuters article "Russia breached global chemical weapons ban in Ukraine war, US says"
1. Quick summary of the situation in Georgia
2. Georgian protest
3. Aerial view
4. More pics of protests
5. At the beginning of this video is a parliament member punching head of Georgia Dream
6. Georgian parliament member explaining why he punched the head of Georgia Dream
7. Opposition leader addressing parliament after being kidnapped and beaten
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russia using "barn tanks"
2. Russia deploying smoke before attacking
3. GRAPHIC[/B ]Video of various drone strikes, after 2 minute shows drone helping Ukrainians defend trench
4. Bradley destroying vehicle after it drops off troops
5. [B]GRAPHIC drones dive bombing foxholes
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. GOOD READ Tatarigami on the current state of the major areas of combat
2. GOOD READ Kyiv Independent article "Battle of Chasiv Yar begins: On the ground with Ukrainian forces defending city key to Russia’s plans"
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. USA 155mm shells up to 36k a month, several years ahead of schedule
2. Reuters article "US Army says Congress doubled funds for 155 artillery"
The U.S. plans to increase its monthly production rate for 155 millimeter artillery shells to 100,000 in the summer of 2025 Bush told reporters Thursday.
3. USA now producing far more ATACMS, enabling them to send more
RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE
Reuters article "Russia used 300 missiles, 300 drones, 3,200 guided bombs in April against Ukraine, Zelenskiy says"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rus...
WAR CRIMES
1. Russia forcing Ukrainians to get Russian passports to claim their land in occupied areas
Spoiler
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Russian motorcycle and pallet used as a sidecar to transport troops during an assault
2. GRAPHIC Russian boat hits mine
3. Russian camo mortar team
4. HIMARS strike
5. Turtle tank
6. Ukrainian quadbike used for evacs and supplies
Spoiler
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1.Reuters article. "Gazprom plunges to first annual loss in 20 years as trade with Europe hit" ($7 billion loss)
2. ft article "Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine"
“It’s getting harder and harder every month. One month it is dollars, the next month it is euros; within six months you basically won’t be able to do anything. The logical endpoint of this is turning Russia into Iran,” said a senior Russian investor, referring to strict financial sanctions against Tehran.
The US executive order is designed to target banks in countries that recorded sharp rises in trade with Russia after the west imposed sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.
3. Bloomberg article "Russians Who Fled Abroad Return in Boost for Putin’s War Economy"
RECRUITMENT
1. UK MOD on Russia's average daily losses
2. GOOD READ BBC article "Ukraine War: 'If we go home, a lot of inexperienced soldiers will die'"
3. UK MOD on Russia recruiting in occupied territories
HYBRID WARFARE
GOOD READ ft article "Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn"
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Inside a Ukrainian command bunker
2. Russian ATV under attack by drone and artillery
3. Barn tank
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
1. Ukraine signs bill to mobilize convicts
Spoiler
1. Oryx documents 3000 visually confirmed Russian tanks lost
2. Russian AFV losses this year almost twice as high than this time last year
Spoiler
MILITARY PRODUCTION
1. Ukraine's domestic cruise missile
Spoiler
MILITARY AID
1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Ukraine examines N.Korean missile debris amid fears of Moscow-Pyongyang axis"
"About half of the North Korean missiles lost their programmed trajectories and exploded in the air; in such cases the debris was not recovered," Kostin's office said in written answers to Reuters' questions.
2. Euronews article "EU Policy. Brussels agrees to send €3bn from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine"
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-ex...
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/...
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
1. Bloomberg article "Russia’s War Economy Starves Crucial Oil Industry of Manpower"
2. Foreign Affairs article "Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries"
SBU claims to have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Zelenskyy
Spoiler
1. Georgian beat up by thugs
2. Article on some of the Georgians beaten by thugs
3. Thread on harassment towards Georgian protestors
Spoiler
Ukrainian MoD
The Armed Forces of Ukraine defend our positions in the Kharkiv region
During this day, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the direction of Vovchansk using guided aerial bombs (FAB).
With the beginning of the night, the Russian occupiers increased the fire pressure on the front edge of our defense with the support of artillery.
At approximately 5 am, there was an attempt by the enemy to break through our defense line under the cover of armored vehicles.
As of now, these attacks have been repulsed, battles of varying intensity continue.
To strengthen the defense on this part of the front, reserve units have been sent. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold back the enemy's offensive.
Thank you to every soldier, sergeant and officer who displayed the necessary fortitude and bravery to defend our positions.
That village is in Kharkiv, bordering Russia. If Ukraine is sending reserves then it's likely a pretty significant threat, and could be the start of a major Kharkiv offensive. Really difficult to tell.
BATTLE CLIPS
1. Drone attack 1300km from Ukraine
2. Video of the refinery burning
Spoiler
MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS
1. Map of Russian advances
2. UK MOD on frequency of attacks on Chasiv Yar
3. Tatarigami on Kharkiv offensive
4. Rob Lee on Tatarigami's assessment of Kharkiv
5. Map showing the focus of the attacks
Spoiler
RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN
1. Map showing where Russia is firing missiles from
Spoiler
RECRUITMENT
Reuters article "Four arrested for duping young Indian men into fighting for Russia in Ukraine"
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/four...
MILITARY AID
1. Emergency clause to authorize sale of 3 HIMARS (one of the HIMARS given to Ukraine was visually confirmed to have been destroyed, lots of speculation on why the other two are being given)
2. Contents of next aid package
3. Germany buying HIMARS to send to Ukraine
Spoiler
Germans have always loved war!
