Russian Invasion of Ukraine

A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000.

The high—and fast-rising—tolls on both sides highlight what will be a devastating long-term effect for countries that were struggling with population declines before the war mainly because of economic turmoil and social upheavals. They also illuminate one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own motivations behind launching the invasion in 2022: to boost Russia’s population by absorbing Ukrainians. Russia’s invasions and capture of Ukrainian territory over the past decade have caused Ukraine to lose at least 10 million people under occupation or as refugees, according to government estimates and demographers.

Putin has long declared addressing Russia’s chronic demographic decline a priority, and the Kremlin has since embarked on a campaign of Russifying occupied territories, including large-scale abduction of children and pressuring Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship. In the occupied Donbas region, selling property and other transactions now require obtaining Russian citizenship.

The effect could be enduring. Alongside military deaths, Ukraine’s birthrate also collapsed to the lowest recorded level: In the first half of this year, three times as many people died as were born, according to government data. Some 250,000 deaths and over 87,000 births were recorded in this period, which is 9% less than the same period last year, according to government figures. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion, over 130,000 births were recorded.

Russia’s way of war is also aimed at making Ukraine unlivable. Russian missile-and-drone attacks have knocked out large parts of Ukraine’s energy grid, including power stations, which could drive many more Ukrainians to seek refuge outside the country this winter if it leads to major electricity and heat outages.

One of the key reasons Zelensky refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men aged between 18 and 25—typically the bulk of any fighting force—is because most of these people haven’t had children yet, according to the former Ukrainian officials. Should the recruits of that age group die or become incapacitated, future demographic prospects would dim further, Ukrainian demographers say.