2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Insightful stuff, Vic. There is one thing that is really good about your posts, actually: they're short.
the whole point is that the president is a job that doesnt require any ability or cognition. no **** some other jobs do. the president is not like those jobs.
D2, of all the people in this thread I would have thought you understood that drunkenness does not preclude the ability to do certain jobs.
This is the fundamental problem of STEM-lords like you; you value all of your precious data equally, even when the language involved in the survey data in question renders the results of entire data subset worse-than-useless.
Crackhead-style fiends for data. Language considerations and morality considerations need not apply.
The big problem with you non thinking people is you just word vomit nonsense without any understanding. I chose that exact phrase because that was my memory of what Sanders got booed for saying, by maybe just 1 guy. I was pretty close in my recollection. Before you horned into the conversation, Tame and I were discussing a segment of the "protesting left". It's completely irrelevant if you think the syntax f the statement is bad, because that was the exact syntax Sanders got booed for and most agree with. Next time, try to understand the conversation. It doesn't take any science or math training to do so.
Ecriture if you ask the Viktor crowd, the reason they boo that statement is because they don't consider 7 10 a terrorist attack.
They consider it a legitimate act of war against an occupying force.
And they don't consider Israel actions after 7 10 a "response": they consider them as an additional act of illegal warfare part of a series of events that started in like 1967 or whatever, just even more gross than usual.
They negate the assumptions implicit in the statement same as those who answer in polls do.
For them Hamas is a liberation movement like Castro movement was before he took power.
Ecriture if you ask the Viktor crowd, the reason they boo that statement is because they don't consider 7 10 a terrorist attack.
They consider it a legitimate act of war against an occupying force.
And they don't consider Israel actions after 7 10 a "response": they consider them as an additional act of illegal warfare part of a series of events that started in like 1967 or whatever, just even more gross than usual.
They negate the assumptions
I straight-up refute every dumb thing you say, and you keep on ignoring it and eternally plowing ahead in that highly obtuse fashion of yours. You're a steamroller of idiocy.
The personal attacks need to stop immediately please. It’s way too much.
Oh, my bad, I feel so deeply embarrassed that I don't know what memories you hold in your very special brain...
Right. You could have just asked instead of embarrassing yourself and leaving your only method of response personal attacks.Not really up for debate that the statement "Israel has a right to defend itself against the actions of Hamas on Oct 7" is both widely agreed upon by Americans, including Sanders, and disagreed with by a small segment of the "protesting left".
Right. You could have just asked instead of embarrassing yourself and leaving your only method of response personal attacks.Not really up for debate that the statement "Israel has a right to defend itself against the actions of Hamas on Oct 7" is both widely agreed upon by Americans, including Sanders, and disagreed with by a small segment of the "protesting left".
right bc his words exist in a total vacuum.
also, no they dont have a right to defend themselves at least according to international law. they have a right to **** and end the occupation.
no, nobody said it before nyt/cnn did following the debate. it's wild, but literally not one person noticed that genocide joe was old as **** and brain-melted
The NYT did print this from Ezra Klein back in February when basically no one main stream was saying this (or it was at least deeply unpopular), but it also wasn’t the consensus of the paper until after the debate.
I straight-up refute every dumb thing you say, and you keep on ignoring it and eternally plowing ahead in that highly obtuse fashion of yours. You're a steamroller of idiocy.
Then you aren't part of the Viktor crowd.
What I wrote is what tankies on Twitter say, and Viktor in this board says
Right. You could have just asked instead of embarrassing yourself and leaving your only method of response personal attacks.Not really up for debate that the statement "Israel has a right to defend itself against the actions of Hamas on Oct 7" is both widely agreed upon by Americans, including Sanders, and disagreed with by a small segment of the "protesting left".
No, a majority of it, 15% of Americans iirc is more than half the total of radical leftists
I can’t stop laughing at all of this.
I made it 50 seconds before I decided I was done listening to him say words
rate the following:
- listening to a trump speech
- listening to a biden speech
- listening to an rfk jr speech
- yugoslavian war criminal poison dot meme
Here are the current totals as of 8/4/24 for polls taken from 7/21 onward. 538.com has now addressed 5 states (in bold). Otherwise I have averaged the Heads Up (HU) and Multi-Candidate (MC) polls but I have used the MC polls as the basis for the electoral results. What 538.com does that I don't do is: weigh Likely Voter (LV) polls more heavily than Registered Voters (RV) and All Adults (A) polls. 538.com also adjusts for historical bias for each pollster. And 538.com considers recent polls at a bigger % than older polls.
Format is [
AZ(4|3): Kamala trails by 2.0% per 538.com with 5% 3rd and 5.2% Un. Was trailing by 2.8% HU and 2.3% MC. Biden was trailing by 5.5% prior standing in AZ (multiple polls).
CA(0|1): Kamala up by 24% MC, Biden was up by 20% in CA (multiple polls)
FL(1|1): Kamala trails by 7% HU and 8% MC with 6% 3rd and 8% Un, Biden trailed by 8.8% (multiple polls)
GA(6|4): Kamala trails by 0.9% per 538.com with 3.7% 3rd and 5.4% Un. Was trailing by 1.4% HU and 2.5% MC. Biden trailed by 5.9% (multiple polls).
ME(1|1): Kamala leads by 9% HU and 8% MC after Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll
MI(5|5): Kamala leads by 1.9% per 538.com with 5.8% 3rd and 5.9% Un. Was leading by 1.2% HU and 1.6% MC. Biden had been trailing by 2.4% (multiple polls).
MN(2|2):Kamala leads by 8.5% HU and 4.5% MC with 8% 3rd and 5.5% Un, Biden had been tied (multiple polls).
NC(1|2): Kamala trails by 2% now both HU and MC with 6.5% 3rd and 4.5% Un, Biden had been trailing by 6.9% (multiple polls).
NH(2|3): Kamala still leads by 5.5% HU and 6.3% MC now. Biden had been trailing by 1% in the latest poll.
NV(2|2): Kamala leads by 0.5% HU and trails by 1% MC with 8.5% 3rd and 4.5% Un. Biden had been trailing by 5.7% (multiple polls).
OH(1|1): Kamala trails by 10% HU and 9% MC. Biden had been trailing by 9.3% (multiple polls)
OR(1|1): Kamala leads by 5% in HU and MC with 4% 3rd and 11% Un. Biden was up by 11% in the latest poll (with 19% for 3rd party and 12% undecided).
PA(7|6): Kamala leads by 0.6% per 538.com with 4.1% 3rd and 5.9% Un. Was trailing by 0.7% HU and 0.4% MC. Biden had been trailing by 4.4% (multiple polls).
WA(0|1): Kamala leads by 14% MC. Biden had also been leading by 14% in most recent poll.
WI(4|4): Kamala leads by 1.4% per 5.38.com with 4.5% 3rd and 4.9% Un. Was leading by 1.3% HU and trailing by 0.2% MC. Biden had been trailing by 2.3% (multiple polls).
Assuming Kamala will win NJ, NM, VA and NE 2nd district and will lose ME 2nd District where no polls have come out since 7/21/24, the current electoral score is: 270 to 268 with Kamala now ahead !!!
Based on how 538.com has been weighting the existing polls I would say there is a decent chance that Kamala is now very close (less than 0.5% behind) in NV or even possibly ahead.
RCP has the score at Kamala: 208 Trump: 219 and Toss Up States: 111. But if VA is not really a Toss Up State then it would be Kamala: 221 Trump: 219 Toss Up: 98
Ultimately though the election will be based on how the undecideds move and whether or not the 3rd party vote declines and moves to one of the two candidates. In the past two elections Trump has gained more ground from the undecided votes than his opponents in the days before the elections (Biden basically didn't gain much if at all). But right now as the undecided and 3rd party votes have been dropping, Kamala has been gaining.
Hard to know where to even go with that. This seems like a good start:
I'll just say that if RFK thought slapping together a weird video like that was better than just waiting until the story came out and then reacting to it if needed, he's about to find out how wrong he was. Getting in front of a story makes sense sometimes, but not when that entails telling a long rambling tale that at best makes you look like a mischievous young man, and at worst like something of an idiot that tied up a lot of important resources.
