Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
Yeah it really sucks the previous thread got deleted.
The important distinction here with what I recall of chezlaw's argument is that he believes Putin invaded due to the lack of deterrence. Putin apologists claim that USA or others provoked Putin into invading.
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but chez was always claiming that USA's problem was that even after it became clear that Putin would invade, no one did enough to deter him from doing so. This is very much the opposite of apologizing for Putin.
The argument that USA and others should have taken a more active role in preventing the situation is the exact opposite of current Russian propaganda which states that EU, USA, and NATO forced Putin to invade.
Very much that.
There's this common wierd dynamic where in this case putin claims provacation as part of a propoganda camapign as to why he is justified in invading. We respond by pointing out it's nonsense and seems to think that's dealt with it while ignoring the real problem which is that he is going to invade!
Very much that.
There's this common wierd dynamic where in this case putin claims provacation as part of a propoganda camapign as to why he is justified in invading. We respond by pointing out it's nonsense and seems to think that's dealt with it while ignoring the real problem which is that he is going to invade!
hes not justified in invading. It does make sense logically why he would want to as a result of real or percieved nato encroachment. Plus he can use it as an excuse to invade land he wants. seems obv to me that its both
Yes he is not justified in invading but putin did not give a shite about us pointing out it was unjustified. We spend so much politcal effort saying stuff that makes no difference instead of doing anything that makes an actual difference.
If Putin perceives there is nato encroachment why would he want to invade?
Fwiw I had several posts about how there was no threat of Ukraine joining nato anytime soon. It wasn't a possibility.
making russia great again. The greatest game. Spheres of influence, Delusions of grandure. Greed. Power.
usual sort of crap
He feels that way without nato expansion/encroachment/whatever though.
Of course. I'm not sure what we're discussing
If nato was only west Europe, putin invades Ukraine.
If nato doesn't exist putin invades Ukraine.
How does nato change anything at all in regard to putin's desire to invade Ukraine.
None unless it impacts his ability.
I'm still not sure what we're talking about. Feels like you think there's a disagreement but I dont know what it is
hes not justified in invading. It does make sense logically why he would want to as a result of real or percieved nato encroachment.
I don't get it. How is his wanting ro invade a result of perceived nato encroachment.
He wanted to invade regardless of any perceived nato encroachment.
If Putin perceives there is nato encroachment why would he want to invade?
Fwiw I had several posts about how there was no threat of Ukraine joining nato anytime soon. It wasn't a possibility.
There are many reasons corrupt rulers wish to wage war but usually it has to do with staying in power and or getting rich. Sometimes it’s about land. In this case, prob all 3 plus he can kill his enemies
And nato encroachment perhaps made him speed up that invasion. The why of it? Because if you stop nato from encroaching further into perceived Russian territory now they will be easier to kick out later.
Ukraine Uses US Bombs On Civilians in Crimea: 'No Peaceful Life'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p4H4uCp...
huh, seems bad
There are many reasons corrupt rulers wish to wage war but usually it has to do with staying in power and or getting rich. Sometimes it’s about land. In this case, prob all 3 plus he can kill his enemies
And nato encroachment perhaps made him speed up that invasion. The why of it? Because if you stop nato from encroaching further into perceived Russian territory now they will be easier to kick out later.
Got it, so Putin invaded Ukraine sooner so he could invade more countries before NATO could protect them.
"sooner" is a key word in that sentence.
Damn that backfired.
Ukraine Uses US Bombs On Civilians in Crimea: 'No Peaceful Life'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p4H4uCp...
huh, seems bad
Yeah it's bad. I used to respect these two and now they're peddling outright propaganda.
Sad.
Got it, so Putin invaded Ukraine sooner so he could invade more countries before NATO could protect them.
"sooner" is a key word in that sentence.
Damn that backfired.
He invaded sooner or more quickly rather because he feels it gives him excuses and a strategic advantage he won’t have if he doesn’t restrict the western worlds eastern advance
Well there was no danger that Ukraine would join NATO anytime soon. I don't know who else he thought would be joining NATO that he planned to invade, but I don't think anyone else had any plans to join anytime soon.
End result was he drove Finland and Sweden into NATO, and drove Ukraine towards NATO, so if that really was his aim then the chess grandmaster really blundered.
If Putin perceives there is nato encroachment why would he want to invade?
Fwiw I had several posts about how there was no threat of Ukraine joining nato anytime soon. It wasn't a possibility.
Ukraine has it in their constitution that NATO membership is a goal and US messaging has been clear that Ukraine will be part of NATO in the future.
This is all between the Crimea land grab and pre invasion.
Ukraine added that to their constitution in 2019, 5 years after Russia invaded. Since Ukraine was at war, and had a territorial dispute, it was impossible for them to join NATO.
Even before that, Ukraine had a pact with Russia to station the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea until 2042, making it pretty much impossible they could join NATO anyways. This was signed in 1997. I'm assuming the "clear messaging" was Bush's declaration in 2008.
Before Russia invaded for the most part Ukrainian support for joining NATO was around 20% for, and 60% against. Even without all of that there was no threat of Ukraine joining NATO.
Well there was no danger that Ukraine would join NATO anytime soon. I don't know who else he thought would be joining NATO that he planned to invade, but I don't think anyone else had any plans to join anytime soon.
End result was he drove Finland and Sweden into NATO, and drove Ukraine towards NATO, so if that really was his aim then the chess grandmaster really blundered.
I haven’t been discussing nato afaik
Well there was no danger that Ukraine would join NATO anytime soon. I don't know who else he thought would be joining NATO that he planned to invade, but I don't think anyone else had any plans to join anytime soon.
End result was he drove Finland and Sweden into NATO, and drove Ukraine towards NATO, so if that really was his aim then the chess grandmaster really blundered.
Yes Putin, the guy who never is allowed to lose, lost.
Ukraine added that to their constitution in 2019, 5 years after Russia invaded. Since Ukraine was at war, and had a territorial dispute, it was impossible for them to join NATO.
Even before that, Ukraine had a pact with Russia to station the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea until 2042, making it pretty much impossible they could join NATO anyways. This was signed in 1997. I'm assuming the "clear messaging" was Bush's declaration in 2008.
Before Russ
Disputed territories and also NATO members approving them along with all kinds of other hoops I'm sure needed to be jumped through made NATO membership a longshot for Ukraine but the US was on record that it was not off the table.
"Long shot" does not accurately describe it. Practically impossible. There are enough 0s to the right of the decimal point that on any other sub one could easily say "impossible".
For all practical purposes it was off the table. "We will uphold the principle of Nato’s open door" is as far away as it could possibly get. Expecting nato to declare countries off limit from even pursuing membership is clearly ridiculous.
Moscow wants assurances that Ukraine and Georgia will never be allowed to join Nato and has called for a pullout of Nato forces from eastern Europe, including Romania and Bulgaria, and a return to 1997 levels of deployment.
It should be obvious that this was an ultimatum that Putin knew would be rejected. This was not a serious attempt at diplomacy.
Might as well tell Putin we will invade if he doesn't disarm his nukes because if he doesn't disarm his nukes then clearly nuking people is on the table.
And anyways invading because the previous time Putin invaded caused Ukraine to seek ways to not be invaded is about as flimsy an excuse as they come. None of this was serious, Putin was not worried about Ukraine joining nato in the least bit. Not in his lifetime anyways.
