Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
The hot take is that Biden, Obama, and Zelenskyy are worse than Putin.
The closest some ITT have gotten to accepting that Putin is worse than anybody is "Well you can't really trust anyone."
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/...
"The worry is that escalation on Ukraine’s part is an attempt to force Russia to take asymmetric actions. Let's consider the usage of nuclear weapons. I am confident that Ukraine would be pleased if Russia or we utilised tactical nuclear weapons there. That would bring them joy."
Lukashenko claims that utilising nuclear weapons would deprive Russia and Belarus of allies.
"Then we'd probably have few allies left. In general, there would be no sympathetic countries left. Because they are involved in what is happening," said Lukashenko.
"Second, it's nuclear weapons. We have already formed a certain image negative to these nuclear weapons. So they want to push [us to do it – ed.]," the Belarusian leader added.
Obviously Ukraine doesn't want a nuke, but Lukashenko is definitely correct on the consequences of such an action and how it would not bring about an end to the conflict. I am personally more wary of escalation than most who are well versed in the war, but Biden/Sullivan are going to insane lengths.
You can definitely trust USA more than Putin. More importantly though, USA is not invading Ukraine. I don't know why we have to do this Putin apology every time this comes up. Sure your default trust level can be "don't trust anyone" and that's fine. You should definitely "not trust" Putin more than you "not trust" others.
no you cant.
and your main problem is that you simply cannot comprehend that comparing Putin/Russia to the USA is not a good thing. its about the worse possible thing in history.
The hot take is that Biden, Obama, and Zelenskyy are worse than Putin.
The closest some ITT have gotten to accepting that Putin is worse than anybody is "Well you can't really trust anyone."
also Trump, both Bushes, Reagan, LBJ, Nixon. we are comparing the USA to Russia. it doesnt matter who is in charge of the USA, they just kill millions. its actually a massive insult to compare anyone to the USA.
I think only bush killed a million or more
You can trust most people a lot more than Putin.
However anyone, even Putin, can be trusted if enough pressure is put on him; NATO for example. This is why one of his main demands is no NATO membership. Ukraine needs to figure out how to get the situation to be such that they can trust Putin. It is going to be very difficult.
If Ukraine joins NATO, then Russia can't simply use a period of peace to build up its capacities and attack again.
Russia knows Ukraine has to enter a military alliance to stop that from happening, and they know that demands to the contrary will not be accepted. So the goal of the demands is more propaganda than anything else, trying to paint Ukraine as the aggressor and NATO as the instigator.
Which is an interesting message when you are the invader of said country and have been in the process of massacring its citizens for the last three years. However, it is a message that works. It convinces a loud minority inside Ukraine's allies that slowly rises in volume and numbers.
along those lines, they finally admitted that they blew up the nord stream pipelines. well, not them directly, but ukraine, on their own (lol). story they're going with now is that lil z ordered the code red, but then changed his mind and couldn't stop it (lol). yanks say the cia found out about it before it happened, but couldn't stop it (lol). germany also seem to be blaming poland for it now rn.
anyway yanks are throwing this general val
this story is hilarious. or rather, anyone who takes it at face value is a joke. also, very unfortunate that the divers left a bunch of forensic evidence in the boat and flew a Ukrainian flag during the operation.
That wall of text just ignored the point again. I want Ukraine to win back everything but they can't so I don't want them to all die for nothing. Pretty logical thought from someone who values their lives and is not just virtue signaling. Obv I wouldn't accept Russian terms just like Russia wouldn't thats why you meet in the middle.......
Its quite simple really because the alternative is endless war which is worse for them then simply ceding land.
Try to treat it like a strategy game because that's the only way you can remove your emotions which is best for human lives.
Emotions=bad poker forum btw... rofl
Giving Putin land to launch his next invasion from and the time necessary to launch it in a more successful manner doesn't end the war, it just postpones the killing for a bit.
Ukraine is looking for a permanent, or at least long term, solution.
victor also giga emotional but a clocks right twice a day. he was right that you can't really trust anyone. So if you can't really trust anyone how can you end a war? You have to make calculated gambles. Russia is willing to do war now. but them willing to do war in the future is not a guarantee. Alot of things can happen . If a cease fire is made ukraine can also simply break its word and join nato. Its actually what they should do and I support it. Give russia the respect they deserve
Ukraine is finally in a position to be able to call some shots. they will destroy russian infrastructure and look to reorganize the battlefield, drawing russian units into places where they better serve ukraine
ukraines next incursion will be even better, they certainly can beat russia back, its just a matter of how much support the west wants to give
Not related directly to what's happening in Kursk or Ukraine...but from Igor Lipsits today (professor from Moscow's Higher School of Economics)
Сделать газовую отрасль России убыточной - выдающееся "достижение" современной России. Видимо, по году убыток "Газпрома" достигнет-таки - как предсказывали в Госдума еще в прошлом году - одного триллиона рублей. Минфин будет дотировать "Газпром"? "Проект Владимира Путина по увеличению поставок газа в Китай и строительству нового трубопровода «Сила Сибири — 2» надолго сдан в утиль. Монголия — страна, через которую должна была пройти труба длиной 2,5 тысячи километров, — не включила газопровод «Газпрома» в план национального развития до 2028 года, сообщает The South China Morning Post. Россия предлагала Монголии помимо доходов от транзита также получать газ из трубопровода проектной мощностью 50 млрд кубометров в год. Но Москве не удалось договориться с Пекином, сообщил SCMP бывший член Совета безопасности Монголии Мунхнара Байарлхавга. «Мы вступаем в долгую паузу, поскольку Москва больше не верит, что может получить от Пекина сделку, которую хочет, и вероятно, проект откладывается до лучших времен», — сказал он. Путин еще в 2022 году предложил Си Цзиньпину нарастить закупки российского газа до 100 млрд кубометров в год, чтобы заменить «Газпрому» потерянный европейский рынок. Но несмотря на заявления о «стратегическом партнерстве» без границ и поездки Путина в Пекин, председатель КНР так и не дал «добро» на стройку. По данным Financial Times, камнем преткновения стала цена газа: Китай потребовал опустить ее до внутрироссийского уровня, то есть около $60 за тысячу кубометров. Это вчетверо дешевле, чем российский газ обходится Китаю сейчас: $260 за тысячу кубов по газопроводу «Сила Сибири-1». Оставшись без возможности продавать газ, «Газпром» был вынужден сократить добычу до минимума за всю свою историю. В первом полугодии 2024 года, согласно отчетности по РСБУ, убыток газового бизнеса компании мог составить еще 480,6 млрд рублей".
To make Russia’s gas industry unprofitable is an outstanding"achievement” of modern Russia. Apparently, for the year Gazprom will be in the red 1 trillion Rubles, as predicted by the state Duma last year. Will the Ministry of Finance subsidize Gazprom?
Vladimir Putin's project to increase the supply of gas to China and the construction of a new pipeline has long been reduced to scrap.
Mongolia, the country through which the 2,500 km-long pipeline should have passed, did not include Gazprom’s pipeline in its plan of national development until 2028, the South China Morning Post reported.
In addition to transit revenue, Russia also offered Mongolia gas from the pipeline at a planned production capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year. However, Moscow did not manage to come to an agreement with China, former member of Mongolia’s security council Munkhanra Bairlkhaga reported to SCMP. "We've entered a long pause since Moscow no longer believes that it can make the deal with China that it wants and the project is probably delayed until better times” he said.
Back in 2022, Putin proposed to Xi to increase purchases of Russian gas to 100 billion cubic meters per year in order to replace the European market Gazprom lost. But despite the announcement of a “strategic partnership without limits” and Putin’s trip to Beijing, the CCPs chairman did not green-light the construction project. According to the Financial Times’ data, the stumbling block was the price of gas: China demanded it be reduced to a level on par with domestic Russian prices, i.e. about $60 per thousand cubic meters. This is four times cheaper than what Russian gas currently costs China ($260 per thousand cubic meters through Power of Siberia 1).
Left without the possibility to sell gas, Gazprom was forced to curtail production to its lowest point in its history. For the first half of 2024, according to Russian Accounting Standards bookkeeping, losses for the company’s gas business could consist of another 480.6 billion Rubles.
need more of these
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lit...
RUDNINKAI, Lithuania, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Lithuania on Monday began construction of a military base, which will accommodate up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops once completed by the end of 2027, in the first permanent foreign deployment for the German military since World War Two.
need more of these
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lit...
RUDNINKAI, Lithuania, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Lithuania on Monday began construction of a military base, which will accommodate up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops once completed by the end of 2027, in the first permanent foreign deployment for the German military since World War Two.
Stepmom was in Lithuania last year, sent me this picture
RUDNINKAI, Lithuania, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Lithuania on Monday began construction of a military base, which will accommodate up to 4,000 combat-ready German troops once completed by the end of 2027, in the first permanent foreign deployment for the German military since World War Two.
are they attacking the guys who blew up their pipelines?
they did supposedly cut off the weapons to them. but Im not sure that was bc of the terrorism but more likely bc they would prefer that weaponry is used on Gazan children.
Always interesting to see what disinformation is getting picked up.
good news for anyone who hates America, or the globalist neolib nightmare we live in btw:
Is this normal? I really don't know and can understand either way but seems cold to have to grenade 15 of your comrades before defecting.
Who knows, maybe they were total *******s and the guy was happy to frag them.
Is this normal? I really don't know and can understand either way but seems cold to have to grenade 15 of your comrades before defecting.
Who knows, maybe they were total *******s and the guy was happy to frag them.
some pilot did something similar earlier in the war. Russia tracked him down and killed him in Europe (I think Spain).
Is this normal? I really don't know and can understand either way but seems cold to have to grenade 15 of your comrades before defecting.
Who knows, maybe they were total *******s and the guy was happy to frag them.
It's not really a story where you will ever be able to figure out if it is true or not.
That said, being in the Russian military is often a miserable experience. When you are a conscript or new to a unit they practice what is called "dedovshchina", which is the systematic hazing of new soldiers. This includes harassment, beatings, theft, sexual abuse, murder and rape. Disciplinary actions in units is also often similarly draconian and abusive, not to mention carried out by an officer corps which is often plagued by corruption and disregard for soldiers' lives.
So, while you won't really be able to tell if this story is true or not, that a Russian soldier snaps and kills his officers or fellow soldiers probably happens a fair bit.
It's not really a story where you will ever be able to figure out if it is true or not.
That said, being in the Russian military is often a miserable experience. When you are a conscript or new to a unit they practice what is called "dedovshchina", which is the systematic hazing of new soldiers. This includes harassment, beatings, theft, sexual abuse, murder and rape. Disciplinary actions in units is also often similarly draconian and abusiv
Yeah, that's what I was thinking as writing the post. Hear stories about officers taking money and stuff you've listed so fragging some of them may have just been icing on the cake.
victor also giga emotional but a clocks right twice a day. he was right that you can't really trust anyone. So if you can't really trust anyone how can you end a war? You have to make calculated gambles. Russia is willing to do war now. but them willing to do war in the future is not a guarantee. Alot of things can happen . If a cease fire is made ukraine can also simply break its word and join nato. Its actually what they should do and I s
Do you think Russia is amendable to a reasonable ceasefire agreement that would be worth Ukraine making a "calculated gamble" on. What would such an agreement look like in your eyes?
The main practice the Russian military has adopted from Wagner is "zeroing out", or shooting anyone who doesn't go into their meat assault. This duty belongs to the commander and his closest aids. There's been several instances of drones capturing it. Intercepted phone communications say that the main driver for Russians to go on these cannon fodder assaults is being zeroed out. It also explains why Russians so rarely surrende. (At least before Kursk where Ukraine is claiming 2000 POWs, since Russia is not willing to shoot their own conscripts as they can belong to the important families in St Petersburg and Moscow.)
There's also reports of Russians being refused urgent medical care and being sent back to the line, and its the commander's job to get them going forward too. There's lots of evidence of bizarre punishments and commanders even bragging out. Commanders demand "bribes" and just outright steal wages.
Not only does this guy every motive to kill his commander and those closest to him, he might have needed to do so in order to flee without being shot at from the Russian side.
Spoiler
FWIW I stopped saving these and started skimming over the stories because they were so numerous. ChrisO is the best resource if you want to look into it more.
lol jfc
Yeah it's appalling stuff.
