2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
headlines are saying that Biden said at his really he is going to restore or preserve abortion rights. this is weird to me bc all of the really smart and serious Dem supporters told me that it was unpossible for Biden (or Obama) to do this.
If Trump is such a threat to life on earth, why don't dems implement some policies that are both common sense, good policies and supported by large majorities of voters?
they do
We have the worst, least efficient HC system in the developed world. 63% say gov should guarantee hc for all. Dems say what we have is perfect.
The bolded is such an obvious lie that it's silly. Dems have been pushing for Euro-style healthcare reform for decades. Republicans have been blocking these reforms. It's fine if you don't want to vote for the lesser of two evils, but at least be honest with us.
We're 1 of 8 countries on earth without paid paternity leave. 82% favor it. Dems oppose it
lol
headlines are saying that Biden said at his really he is going to restore or preserve abortion rights. this is weird to me bc all of the really smart and serious Dem supporters told me that it was unpossible for Biden (or Obama) to do this.
I don't know who told you it was "unpossible." It wasn't me. Here is what I said to you in September.
I agree that federal abortion legislation might have been achievable. It would have required eliminating the filibuster, and it obviously wouldn't have been a permanent solution, but it might have been possible. I suspect that there were other considerations besides the filibuster. Conservatives on the Court have always said abortion rights should be a legislative issue. If a challenge to Roe had come before the Court while federal legislation protecting the right to abortion had been on the books, I think it would have increased the chances that Roe would be overturned. That's what happened anyway, but it wasn't a sure thing. A lot of people, including me, thought there was a decent chance that Roberts would peel off someone like Kavanaugh. (I'm not pointing at Roberts as some sort of protector of abortion rights. He didn't want to overrule Roe, mainly because he thought it would harm the reputation of the Court, but he has been more than willing to whittle away at abortion rights.)
I havent looked at all of your examples, but two stick out as incorrect. The dems have supported the increase in the min wage fircyears. The Raise the Wage Act has been introduced in Congress by dems several years in a row but the repubs keep voting against it. In FL the min wage was increased only because a citizen initiative, led by prominent democratspased 60-40 to change the FL Constitution. This was necessary because tge repubican cont
Sorry but given that when they wanted to, Dems passed a huge deficit increasing bill (inflation reduction act) on the slimmest of majorities (with Harris breaking the tie in the senate), then there is no excuse for Dems not increasing the federal minwage in 2022, except that they simply didn't want to.
It's true that many democrat politicians would like to. But that isn't unanimous inside the democratic party, evidently, unlike say a strong idea that climate change has to be fought by reducing emissions domestically among other things
Sorry but given that when they wanted to, Dems passed a huge deficit increasing bill (inflation reduction act) on the slimmest of majorities (with Harris breaking the tie in the senate), then there is no excuse for Dems not increasing the federal minwage in 2022, except that they simply didn't want to.
This is probably true. That said, if I had the opportunity to choose federal policies to push in a more progressive direction, minimum wage wouldn't be in the top 20. It is a popular progressive talking point in no small part because it is easy to understand.
lozen admitted that he prefers Trump's policies to Biden's policies, apparently by a wide enough margin to disregard Trump's contempt for democratic norms.
I cant really blame him. the crap biden produced far outweights the crap trump produced. thats the logic behind it but I guess that logic is obvious.
we are getting trump either way now. that much is for certain, right?
there is no way around it.
why are they even running? haley doesnt have a chance, desantis never did. but I guess they still gain somehting by running?
biden is far off his prime. he should just throw the towel already. its embarressing, like having watched prime mike tyson and then his last fights, which he knew he would lose but only needed the money.
both are way past their prime.
we are getting trump either way now. that much is for certain, right?
there is no way around it.
Not everyone likes to use prediction markets as estimators of electoral probabilities, but when trump and biden are exactly even in implied odds there, i think you can guesstimate either is small favorite and markets are slightly wrong but it's hard to believe any of them to be a huge favorite for the time being
we are getting trump either way now. that much is for certain, right?
there is no way around it.
As the GOP nominee? I would say it is highly likely barring some sort of acute health issue or some sort of dramatic development in one of his criminal trials.
In terms of the general election, it would be hard to argue that either party has less than 40% equity.
Not everyone likes to use prediction markets as estimators of electoral probabilities, but when trump and biden are exactly even in implied odds there, i think you can guesstimate either is small favorite and markets are slightly wrong but it's hard to believe any of them to be a huge favorite for the time being
the markets are a tie right now? I mean betting markets? I dont follow them. I learned that trump is leading by a fair margin and its getting worse and worse for biden now. he is losing his groups who were loyal to him, like blacks and other races.
As the GOP nominee? I would say it is highly likely barring some sort of acute health issue or some sort of dramatic development in one of his criminal trials.
In terms of the general election, it would be hard to argue that either party has less than 40% equity.
No I meant that he will be president, period, by the way things appear now. thats more of a question.
Can you translate what you said? I dont get it. what do you mean by barring? you mean that biden might experience health issues? or trump criminal punishment, right?
the markets are a tie right now? I mean betting markets? I dont follow them. I learned that trump is leading by a fair margin and its getting worse and worse for biden now. he is losing his groups who were loyal to him, like blacks and other races.
ye predictit is a perfect tie right now
Oddschecker though gives Trumps a significant advantage (45 vs 33 % chance of winning)
as far as policy goes, trump really doesn't have one and never has. I guess "build a wall" but not much after that. He did roll back some obama stuff, which was really out of personal spite more than anything else. That's how he operates. Oh, I guess extorting foreign leaders for political dirt might be policy. He didn't have a ton to do with tax cuts for the rich, congress for the most part was responsible. Covid "policy" was telling everyone it would go away. No, Trump's policy is about 99% Trump and 1% USA.
And, as far a policy in general goes, liberals for the most part try to move forward and improve things that aren't working well. They are not always successful and they don't always come up with a great solution, but they look forward. Conservatives want nothing to do with fixing anything ever. Even immigration. They had both houses and Trump as president and did nothing about immigration. They just use it as a weapon to attack dems.
ye predictit is a perfect tie right now
awesome, thanks. wouldnt have thought that.
Who knows how the election goes. I sure don't. But trumps appeal in 2016 was mostly an unknown with potential to shake things up. He's a known liar and incompetent now. I gotta think he's lost voters since 2020, not gained them. Even as unappealing as biden is to many.
But, what do I know?
as far as policy goes, trump really doesn't have one and never has. I guess "build a wall" but not much after that.
Trump's appeal has been and will always be unvarnished racism and a promise to keep non-white people out, which is a powerful motivating force in America. His voters aren't at all concerned with competence or honesty.
Trump's appeal has been and will always be unvarnished racism and a promise to keep non-white people out, which is a powerful motivating force in America. His voters aren't at all concerned with competence or honesty.
he promised to keep ms 13 and mexican cartels out, which has nothing to do with race and would be in anyones interest whos concerned about safety.
Dont really know where you get that all from. do you have demographics of trumps supporters? many critical thinkers who are non white support him, its the crooked libtards who cant think who are supporting biden. (not exclusivley crooked idiots I must say, dont want to insult anyone here.)
he promised to keep ms 13 and mexican cartels out, which has nothing to do with race and would be in anyones interest whos concerned about safety.
Dont really know where you get that all from. do you have demographics of trumps supporters? many critical thinkers who are non white support him, its the crooked libtards who cant think who are supporting biden.
Latinos approve Trump more than they do Biden, i think depicting Trump as the "racist guy" really doesn't help democrats anymore, if it ever did
Latinos approve Trump more than they do Biden, i think depicting Trump as the "racist guy" really doesn't help democrats anymore, if it ever did
what about all the rappers? I would think they go with trump always, especially now. all the joe rogan listeners you know? the mohammed ali fans, the trip hop whatever listeners.
