President Joe Biden
Right now, we need VP Biden, we need him to step down and drop out so Bernie sanders can save this country from this global crisis just like FDR.
A thread to debate the efficacy of a Joe Biden Presidency in the midst of a global pandemic and impending Great Recession/Depression.
Where is Joe Biden? Can he beat Trump and is he even trying to? What would a Joe Biden Presidency look like in these times? Where is he and why isn't he leading?
Did you actually find an article suggesting this, or mentioning the loophole? I just reread 22A and it doesn't seem to be prohibited.
Dump Harris, ex pres Obama as vp and wait for the health decline death and have the first over 2 term president.
Couldn’t Obama (or another well liked ex-President) continue to do this election after election with a new old and feeble person as president while his base knows the plan is week one for the old person to step down because of health reasons?
Fetterman is another candidate where Obama could be President another 8 years - I’m not sure dems would even have to feign surprised after the election. They could just say “lol we just got someone elected who can’t listen and follow along in a conversation. He’s stepping down and Obama is back.”
If you think Biden is a risk, changing candidates this late unless the VP can just take over unchallenged is a massive risk. Like saying standing on 17 against a 10 is too much risk so you must hit.
I don’t really care how people handicap the races, but the notion that Biden carries some risk, so the “safe” play is an unprecedented candidate swap this late with an incumbent is flawed, especially when the VP is probably not just going to allow herself to be passed over.
Oh, a swap is definitely a risk.
I find it interesting that you've mentioned "this late" a couple of times, but is it really all that late? Primaries have only just begun. That said, something would have to happen very quickly, because it will become late in no time, and I don't know how realistic that is. So if that's what you mean, yeah, that's definitely a problem.
I find myself a little more on the fence that I was last night. The problem I see going ahead with Biden, to use a poker analogy, is that this is very reminiscent of a "way ahead, way behind" situation. Biden's never been a great speaker, is this just more of the same, or a bit of a decline that will now plateau? If so, and you believe Biden is the Democrat's best chance at the polls, you'll be ahead with him. But if this is just the beginning/continuation of a decline that is going to visibly continue over the next six months, you're way behind. And you're not going to know which it is until it's too late. Added to that is the fact that "way ahead" is pretty generous, while "way behind" is probably understating things - they're pretty much ****ed if this gets a lot worse. But on the flip side of this, no question that a change now is a big risk. You could mitigate that risk by making the change quickly, but is that possible?
The problem is that "they" are not deciding who the nominee will be. There is no secret cabal who chooses the nominee. At this point, the decision lies with Biden. He either will drop out or he will not. Unless he decides to drop out, he will be the nominee. There is no third way.
Yes, that's understood. If the party leadership thinks a change needs to be made, then they're going to have to convince Biden to go with it. I was just suggesting that while they work on Biden, they need to make preparations as there's no time to lose. If they can't convince Biden to go along with such a plan, it's hard to see a way to make a change - I'd expect a long drawn out ugly process that will kill them in the polls.
It's funny that when some on a certain side of the aisle would make a post like this they would receive a NICE WHATABOUT reply.
But you get a pass.
Hey Bobo?
He didn't get a pass - you just called him out. And yes, it was a whataboutism.
I'm not sure why you have difficulty with the idea that when discussing politics, people are going to tend to call out their "opposition" more readily than those with whom they agree more often. Seems like pretty standard behaviour.
That said, I don't tend to call out whataboutisms all that often for most people, as many people are guilty of it now and then. I'm sure I've thrown some out there once in a while. But there's just one person I've noticed that uses them all. the. ****ing. time. And that's why he gets called out.
Oh, a swap is definitely a risk.
I find it interesting that you've mentioned "this late" a couple of times, but is it really all that late? Primaries have only just begun. That said, something would have to happen very quickly, because it will become late in no time, and I don't know how realistic that is. So if that's what you mean, yeah, that's definitely a problem.
I mean, your proposal is that someone not even running to be president somehow gets elected president 9 months later. It wold be completely unprecedented.Sure it's possible, but I think the safer play is just avoiding that chaos and seeing if Biden can pull it off and win.
He didn't get a pass - you just called him out. And yes, it was a whataboutism.
I'm not sure why you have difficulty with the idea that when discussing politics, people are going to tend to call out their "opposition" more readily than those with whom they agree more often. Seems like pretty standard behaviour.
That said, I don't tend to call out whataboutisms all that often for most people, as many people are guilty of it now and then. I'm s
No lets be realistic you do not call out others on whataboutism's which is fine. I would suggest there are a few others that do it frequently as well and after Biden's press conference the left wing media was days of whataboutism's like MontrealCorp
Though lets review the week
Biden's slight mistakes will call them :
- 1. Spoke about a meeting with a dead French president
- 2. Spoke about a meeting with a dead German chancellor
- 3. Said the Red and Green Party
- 4. Talked about Roe v Ward
Biden turns down the traditional Superbowl Interview which i get lambasted for calling it "traditional" in a election year on a favorable news network that may have the largest audience due to Taylor Swift attending the game which adds a base of voters Biden is floundering with. Note it seems CNN, MSNBC and Fox are all calling it a tradition as well
Than a report comes out that says he willfully took classified documents and shared them but the reason they did not seek prosecution is because a jury would find him to be an elderly man with memory problem. Well Grandpa Joe is mad and calls a rushed press conference which I can't fathom his staff advised him to do . He than comes out and is an angry man and tells the world I do not have memory problems yet he forgets
- the name of the church were he got the rosary beads from
- Tells us he alone negotiated with Mexico to release the aid into Israel
That night I give credit to Anderson Cooper that said this is a problem. Yet MSNBC with Rachel Maddow and the podium of of hacks oh everyone forgets things and the man can ride a bike .
This is not going to get better as its only going to get worse.
All we hear is democracy is on the line this is the most important election in history. We hear how evil the GOP folks are for not standing up to Trump well maybe its time for the key figures in the democratic party to stand up and remove Joe.
Yes Biden should have announced at the end of his second year like he hinted when he ran he was going to be the transitional president and told the country he was not running again . What a legacy with everything he got passed in his term .
All those folks that say its to late and who will run there are a list of candidates that could Sadly Kamala is not one of them she is at 28% in the polls
Some of the candidates out there and sadly Michelle is not running
Gretchen Whitmer
Andy Bashear
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Phil Murphy
And to the Bobo's out there yeah I do believe you get what you deserve if Biden is your best when Trump wins as well
I get why Biden turned down the Superbowl interview as I guess him saying I can't wait for the superbowl half time show with Toby Keith would not look good
Pence and Biden sis the same thing wrt to classified documents and neither were charged. Trump lied, did not corporate and got charged.
I mean, your proposal is that someone not even running to be president somehow gets elected president 9 months later. It wold be completely unprecedented.Sure it's possible, but I think the safer play is just avoiding that chaos and seeing if Biden can pull it off and win.
I won't disagree with you - I'm honestly not sure what is best. Definitely not an ideal situation either way.
Not sure why you started with "No let's be realistic", as you're agreeing with me. But no one is even close to your lead position IMO.
Yes Biden should have announced at the end of his second year like he hinted when he ran he was going to be the transitional president and told the country he was not running again . What a legacy with everything he got passed in his term .
Agreed.
And to the Bobo's out there yeah I do believe you get what you deserve if Biden is your best when Trump wins as well
Your whole "they deserve it" shtick remains as silly as always. But I guess whatever it takes to help you justify to yourself why it's OK to be rooting for a guy you think is a terrible person, amirite?
I mean, your proposal is that someone not even running to be president somehow gets elected president 9 months later. It wold be completely unprecedented.Sure it's possible, but I think the safer play is just avoiding that chaos and seeing if Biden can pull it off and win.
It's not completely unprecedented, but I only know of it happening before the current system of party primaries were in place, over 100 years ago.
Biden's never been a great speaker, is this just more of the same, or a bit of a decline that will now plateau? If so, and you believe Biden is the Democrat's best chance at the polls, you'll be ahead with him. But if this is just the beginning/continuation of a decline that is going to visibly continue over the next six months, you're way behind. And you're not going to know which it is until it's too late.
agree with your overall assessment of the situation. just wanted to suggest the right term is "continuation" of a decline rather than "beginning". if you observe his public apperances and speeches over the last three years there is a clear deterioration in his cognitive faculties. this is merely the "beginning" of CNN et al acknowledging that it is possibly a real thing we should be concerned about. the default assumption should be a continuation of decline, because that's how age and dementia works, basically always. he is incapable of debating trump currently. that's not going to improve in six months. ecriture has been the loudest voice around here saying you're the crazy one if you point to his age or mental competency, but now that it's clearly not crazy, he's falling back on "well you gotta stand on 17 and hope for the best".
I mean, your proposal is that someone not even running to be president somehow gets elected president 9 months later. It wold be completely unprecedented. Sure it's possible, but I think the safer play is just avoiding that chaos and seeing if Biden can pull it off and win.
it's unprecedented because we've never had an 81 year old incumbent president insist on running for a 2nd term -- intimidating any realistic candidates from running for fear of being seen as traitors -- only for the world to realize he's not fit for office (much less a 2nd term) 9 months out of re-election. black president was unprecedented until it wasn't, reality tv loon president was unprecedented until it wasn't. the sample size of presidents is actually quite small all things considered, so i think the appeal to "this has never happened before" is weak and needs stronger reasons why voters would never accept a new candidate 9 months out. if anything i think polling suggests a large contingent of voters is desperate for a candidate that's not biden/trump.
fwiw biden is ~25% to win presidency on sportsbooks. his implied odds of winning presidency conditional on being dem nominee is <40%, yet odds of a dem president winning still sit at ~47%. unless books are crazy and arbable, they view it as -EV from dems' perspective to roll with joe.
smartDFS your post is good but you fail at a crucial juncture: you don't name anyone who the dem can nominate which we should expect to do better in the nationals vs Trump.
as for implied odds, check the bid ask spreads (they add up a lot under conditionality).
also, books don't decide the lines they put out what balances the books, so that's the market opinion not the books opinion
my position is virtually anybody who's not trump would be a better alternative to biden, with kamala the possible exception
i tried factoring in vig/spreads with those approximated numbers
books don't always perfectly balance market opinion if they think one side is dumb money, but let's assume they perfectly reflect market opinion: mr. market views rolling with joe as -EV from dems' perspective
smartDFS your post is good but you fail at a crucial juncture: you don't name anyone who the dem can nominate which we should expect to do better in the nationals vs Trump.
as for implied odds, check the bid ask spreads (they add up a lot under conditionality).
also, books don't decide the lines they put out what balances the books, so that's the market opinion not the books opinion
There a bunch of great candidates in the GLH over states
I’d be curious if the DNC are actually meeting and coming up with a back up plan
All those folks that say its to late and who will run there are a list of candidates that could Sadly Kamala is not one of them she is at 28% in the polls
Some of the candidates out there and sadly Michelle is not running
Gretchen Whitmer
Andy Bashear
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Phil Murphy
If bashear doesn’t run for President this year I don’t see him ever becoming anything higher than governor. The biggest city under him is in a major downturn and he is mostly to the blame. He may never win an election ever again.
If bashear doesn’t run for President this year I don’t see him ever becoming anything higher than governor. The biggest city under him is in a major downturn and he is mostly to the blame. He may never win an election ever again.
I think the same logic has to be applied to Newsom than were every major city in California has that problem
If bashear doesn’t run for President this year I don’t see him ever becoming anything higher than governor. The biggest city under him is in a major downturn and he is mostly to the blame. He may never win an election ever again.
I'm from Louisville but I haven't followed much news about it for years. What is going so poorly there?
Actually from Biden's account, wow
I'm from Louisville but I haven't followed much news about it for years. What is going so poorly there?
Downtown is a ghost town and companies are continuing to flee. Who knew that allowing violence would have a negative impact on the city?
In terms of foot traffic: “Louisville ranked 65th out of 66 downtowns, with only St. Louis ranking lower. The study found Louisville was only seeing 54% of the traffic it did before the pandemic.”
https://www.wdrb.com/news/downtown-louis...
Andy was also nice enough to release 1.7k inmates early. “Nearly 50% of Kentucky inmates released early due to COVID concerns face new criminal charges.”
People don’t seem to get old, white, and male are the very traits Biden has that neutralize much of Trump’s appeal in battleground states.
A lot of Trump’s appeal is about some magical reversion to an imaginary past. Biden’s very identity is that.
It’s why Trump has such a hard time getting a nickname for Joe Biden to stick. Everything people find dislikeable about Biden applies to Donald Trump in more abundance.
crooked joe biden stuck pretty well. what are you talking about?
biden gets booed out everywhere he goes, wheraes trump gets celebrated everywhere he goes.
joe biden is 96 f years old. if you think he makes another presidency youre all crazy.
biden is the second most disliked president of all times. and its only getting worse.
presidential polls in these elections are pretty worthless, imo.
im definitely answering disapprove, but im also definitely voting biden in a biden vs trump election.
