2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
It's almost certain (According to experts) that Brown has higher chances vs Moreno yes, still unclear if he is over 50%, very curios about prediction markets for this race
which experts? he won by 6% in 2018 when the Repubs won damn near the rest of the state races. and that was against a moderate. I think he beats anyone this time.
which experts? he won by 6% in 2018 when the Repubs won damn near the rest of the state races. and that was against a moderate. I think he beats anyone this time.
the experts (both sides) say he has higher chances vs moreno and you seem to agree.
As for the odds of this race i haven't seen any number yet
I think he will be a favorite. He has consistently won by large margins despite OH going quite red.
None of west virginias history matters now, they are a red state.
West Virginia is defined primarily by a kind of poverty that no other whites outside of west virginia can understand, like the delta region in mississippi. For a long time it was a blue state based on class interests but it was always one of the most racists states uber suspicious of outsiders. The state became more liberal and moved from a kind of old school “welfare for whites only” socialist state to a more typical red state.
Biden in 2020 won Michigan by 3 , Pennsylvania by like 1; polls now out Trump ahead by 8 (??) in Michigan, even in Pennsylvania.
What's going on in Michigan? Or are polls very biased for some reason?
Biden in 2020 won Michigan by 3 , Pennsylvania by like 1; polls now out Trump ahead by 8 (??) in Michigan, even in Pennsylvania.
What's going on in Michigan? Or are polls very biased for some reason?
Maybe they saw the current prez couldn’t speak coherently and falls down from time to time? Maybe that concerns them
MI has a lot of Palestinians and Muslims. their anger at Biden has been in the domestic news a lot.
I dunno, they have a lot of influence. Rashida Tlaib is from there.
also, not all Arabs and Palestinians are Muslim. esp in the diaspora.
Brown would beat any of the three Republican candidates handily. I predict he will beat Moreno by almost 2-1.
Brown is the single luckiest sitting senator for getting the 06 12 18 cycle in Ohio. 06 was a massive blue wave and republican favorability was at an all time low with the disaster of Bush's 2nd term. Obama managed to hold on to Ohio in 12. In 18 dems won the midterm popular vote by a historical margin due to Trump.
Out of the 66 senate races on the ballot with Trump, Dems have won 0 in states Trump has won and I think Susan Collins is the only senator to win in a state that went for the opposite party. Both of hose need to be checked, but it seems right off the top of my head. Trump won Ohio by 8... I would have to actually start scrapping past results to tell you the last time a senator won in a state that went that far against his/her party for president. I can't even guess a name right now.
Brown is the single luckiest sitting senator for getting the 06 12 18 cycle in Ohio. 06 was a massive blue wave and republican favorability was at an all time low with the disaster of Bush's 2nd term. Obama managed to hold on to Ohio in 12. In 18 dems won the midterm popular vote by a historical margin due to Trump.
Out of the 66 senate races on the ballot with Trump, Dems have won 0 in states Trump has won and I think Susan Collins is
Manchin?
Romney won the state by like 25, Manchin won the seat by like 20
Out of the 66 senate races on the ballot with Trump, Dems have won 0 in states Trump has won and I think Susan Collins is the only senator to win in a state that went for the opposite party. Both of hose need to be checked, but it seems right off the top of my head. Trump won Ohio by 8... I would have to actually start scrapping past results to tell you the last time a senator won in a state that went that far against his/her party for pr
In 2012, Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) all won in states that Romney carried in the presidential election. McCaskill and Tester were incumbents.
Dean Heller (R-NV) won that same year in a state that Obama carried.
But it is relatively rare in recent times, and likely to be even more rare going forward.
Thanks. It didn't happen post Trump, but not THAT uncommon just in the Obama era. I thought the ND seats went down with Obama....didn't realize they held through 2012. Completely forgot about Tester.
Thanks. It didn't happen post Trump, but not THAT uncommon just in the Obama era. I thought the ND seats went down with Obama....didn't realize they held through 2012. Completely forgot about Tester.
FWIW, I think the Democrats long-term prospects in the Senate are quite a bit worse than they are in the Senate.
Current political polarization between urban and rural voters plays very much in the Republicans' favor in the Senate in a system where sparsely populated and predominantly rural states get two seats, just like California, etc.
Effectively, Democrats have traded gains among urban voters with losses among rural voters, which makes it relatively predictable that old school, prairie Democrats like Jon Tester will eventually lose their seats.
FWIW, I think the Democrats long-term prospects in the Senate are quite a bit worse than they are in the Senate.
Current political polarization between urban and rural voters plays very much in the Republicans' favor in the Senate in a system where sparsely populated and predominantly rural states get two seats, just like California, etc.
Effectively, Democrats have traded gains among urban voters with losses among rural voters, which makes i
Do you mean prospects in the senate are quite a it worse than they are in the house?
Jon Tester is a great senator but I think he is toast . Montana is a great lesson on the divide between rural and city voters
Murkowski hates Trump enough she could leave the GOP
It's not just about trump. It's what the republican party has become since he hijacked it. No ideology other than conspiracy theories and other assorted lies.
I'd chalk a lot of Trump's edge on Biden in polling up to out of sight out of mind, Trump hasn't been around much to most people. While Biden is president and perceived to not doing such a great job according to approval ratings.
I'd personally make Biden like 60%ish to win rn whereas market has him at 50%
As we're now only 7 months away from election, chances of an economic black swan go way down as well. I thought Trump was about 60-65% to win in Jan 2020 before covid hit (market had him like 52-53%ish iirc) and that was my logic then as well then this thing called covid 19 hit instead and rest is history.
FWIW, I think the Democrats long-term prospects in the Senate are quite a bit worse than they are in the Senate.
Current political polarization between urban and rural voters plays very much in the Republicans' favor in the Senate in a system where sparsely populated and predominantly rural states get two seats, just like California, etc.
Effectively, Democrats have traded gains among urban voters with losses among rural voters, which makes i
Ehh.. I've herd this before and maybe it plays it like this. But I'm more pessimistic in the short than long term. You're right that some of these rural states will be gone, but in other states and the nation as a whole rural population is in a massive decline. And republican policies seem quite good at making these places miserable enough that rurals have to leave to get jobs/education etc and become more comfortable with immigrants and lwss in tune with culture wats and what the repubican party is selling. The decline in republican support among college educated whites is striking (double digit R margin to double digit D margin in less than 16 years) and I think could be more important as rural population continues to decline.
