2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Biden's toast.
I was watching Real Time and they said Trump is up 5% with 18-29 year olds. Something like that I just think no way it translates to election day, and if it is even remotely close to true then he should be about -700 to win right now.
2020 from wiki
18–24 years old 65 31
25–29 years old 54 43
Yeah....dome have to be told this this every cycle, but single state/demo polls this far out have historically been less valuable than just blinding plugging in the last election's results, which itself is not very valuable, There is a point where that changes, but it's in the future and requires much more polling than we have now.
As we're now only 7 months away from election, chances of an economic black swan go way down as well.
The federal government never stopped pumping money into the economy after Covid so the odds of a big economic recession in the next few months are fairly low.
The government has been funding semiconductors, EV, solar and wind energy generation as well as money for the increase in immigration and paying off student loans. These are the acts of planned economy and not a a free market economy. Russia, Venezuela and a bunch of other countries have tried this, I hope we don’t share their fate.
Congress just pushed through an extra $1.2 trillion in spending. On top of that the fed announced they will likely cut rates 3 times this year which is another way to speed up the economy - despite inflation still being high at 4.3% over the last 12 months.
It is the long-term effects of this that we should worry about, but that won’t be factored into this election.
Another person has been sentenced for committing voter fraud during the
2020 election — and once again it was on behalf of a Republican candidate.
Taylor’s case is a real example of the sort of fraud that
right-wing grifters have insisted is rampant among Democrats.
Other Trump supporters have been caught trying to vote more than once,
including multiple residents at Florida’s retirement community The Villages.
Still others have been caught trying to cast votes in the names of their dead spouses or family members.
So with all the ballots for the primary with uncommitted why not for president have a selection
X-None of the Above
In Columbia if the blank vote got the majority than a new election is triggered and none of the candidates could run again.
I wonder how that would fair in the USA with two candidates most voters do not want
I was watching Real Time and they said Trump is up 5% with 18-29 year olds. Something like that I just think no way it translates to election day, and if it is even remotely close to true then he should be about -700 to win right now.
2020 from wiki
18–24 years old 65 31
25–29 years old 54 43
they may have meant that he's up 5 percentage pts since 2020 with those age groups (so, something like 60 - 36 to biden among 18 to 24 year olds), which sounds plausible and ties in with wider polling
they may have meant that he's up 5 percentage pts since 2020 with those age groups (so, something like 60 - 36 to biden among 18 to 24 year olds), which sounds plausible and ties in with wider polling
no they actually mean he is favourite among the 18-29, at least in some polls
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07...
politico reported on this unprecedented shift in polls.
wider polling still works because Biden is getting favourable opinions by much older people more than any other democrat in decades
You knew it had to be coming: https://reason.com/2024/04/05/meet-liter...
Love the license picture. It reminds me of "Sure, Not" from Idiocracy.
"And there's no doubt that Else's candidacy offers something neither Trump nor Biden can: He is Literally not them."
Lol
Bump.
It's May 5th, therefore 6 months away from election day.
hype!
That said, also me: Kamala not a bad bet in the case that Biden croaks in the next six months.
hm wow, democrats in Illinois really hate democracy
https://electionlawblog.org/?p=142911
But the election bill given final approval by Senate Democrats Thursday, a day after the bill passed the House, would further help Democrats maintain control in the next General Assembly.
Under the new law, local political party organizations can no longer appoint candidates to fill out legislative ballots where the party did not field a primary candidate. Previous law allowed the appointment process within 75 days of the primary.
/
One can, of course, oppose the idea of “slating” and prefer that candidates petition, in the abstract and as a general matter. But, the reason many candidates did not petition was the fact that they relied on existing rules to allow them to be “slated” by the party for the general election. That rug has been yanked out from under them, leaving a number of uncontested elections in the upcoming election.
/
Quite incredible a change like this is legally allowed at this stage of the election
The election is only six months away. I don't have the actuarial tables in front of me, but based on reports of Biden's overall health level, I would guess that there is >95% chance that Biden will make it to the election without any sort of incapacitating health problem. It might be as high as 97-98%.
The election is only six months away. I don't have the actuarial tables in front of me, but based on reports of Biden's overall health level, I would guess that there is >95% chance that Biden will make it to the election without any sort of incapacitating health problem. It might be as high as 97-98%.
If a president candidate dies before the election , let’s say a month , is it automatically directed to the vp nominee ?
If a president candidate dies before the election , let’s say a month , is it automatically directed to the vp nominee ?
I am not an expert on political process, but I'm 99% certain that the party could nominate someone other than the VP candidate in that situation. In most cases, I would expect the VP to be the nominee, but that isn't required by law as far as I know.
I am not an expert on political process, but I'm 99% certain that the party could nominate someone other than the VP candidate in that situation. In most cases, I would expect the VP to be the nominee, but that isn't required by law as far as I know.
Based on that information , I guess that bet on Kamala is far worse than it appears then imo …
What if a vacancy arises after the convention but before election day?
Here again the political parties would play a central role.
The Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee have slightly different rules guiding how they would replace the deceased presidential nominee by majority vote.
According to party rules, the DNC has the power to fill the vacancy on their party ticket after the chair consults Democratic governors and congressional leaders. The RNC, according to its rules, could reconvene a national convention or select the alternative candidate itself.
For simplicity, the parties would probably consider the running mate, but there is no guarantee.
If there were enough time, the replacement candidate might appear on the ballot. But states have different ballot filing deadlines and several states begin mailing their ballots as early as September.
In states where ballots have already been printed or mailed, the party could instruct voters – and electors – to treat the names at the top of the ticket “as hieroglyphics”, said Derek Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame.
“If it says Biden-Harris, you should interpret that as Harris-Booker,” he said, offering the hypothetical example of an alternative Democratic ticket with the New Jersey senator Cory Booker as Harris’s running mate.
