Israel/Palestine thread
Think this merits its own thread...
Discuss my fellow 2+2ers..
AM YISRAEL CHAI.
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Israel is also unlikely to agree with our assessment on their long term viability. It's not like Israel has crossed some line and there's no coming back even if they are making huge mistakes here.
Well Raifiki says they're running out of bombs and need to mobilize the orthodox and that's just playing around with little Gaza. Get the right (wrong actually) leader in a resurgent Syria, Jordan, Egypt or something down the line that wants to go jihad and add Hezbollah in the mix all at once and they'll more than have their hands full.
They'd be wise to start heavily diversifying their weapons suppliers.
I mean this seems to be the official line but reality to the contrary is staring at us in the face.
Jordan helped Israel shoot down Iranian drones.
Syrians donÂ’t do jack **** to Israel and renounced their claims.
Even the Hezbollah has mostly backed off, completely refraining from kidnapping Israelis if nothing else, after Israel just went ballistic (killing thousands for two kidnapped soldiers and like 7 more dead?).
Do you really think the Arab govts and people woke up one day and think they dont mind a Jewish nation in the heart of the Ummah after all?
I would say the current detente is one of strategic necessity due to the realization Israel is technological superior (right now) and allied with a superpower that is vastly superior technologically and militarily. Also, doesn't hurt there is a common enemy, IRI.
All of these factors can and will eventually change. And this isn't even addressing demographic realities; both inside Israel*, the Palestinian territories, and in the greater world abroad.
Unless the Arab/Islamic world goes through a reformation I really dont see a long term path forward for Israel. And things mostly seem to be going the other way, with the paradoxical exception of Iran**.
*Israel's long term survival is probably threatened just as much as their own rightward turn politically/socially and the growth of the Haredim population as anything the Arab world is doing.
**Maybe it will all come to nothing and the IRI will somehow outlive the US and Israel, but it seems each generation of Iranians is becoming less and less interested in Islamism, and more and more interested in joining the modern world, and the mullahs are getting very old; so at some point it seems something is going to happen.
Well Raifiki says they're running out of bombs and need to mobilize the orthodox and that's just playing around with little Gaza. Get the right (wrong actually) leader in a resurgent Syria, Jordan, Egypt or something down the line that wants to go jihad and add Hezbollah in the mix all at once and they'll more than have their hands full.
They'd be wise to start heavily diversifying their weapons suppliers.
Egypt was probably never as committed to peace as we would all like; and the people seem to be internally embracing Islam and Islamism. Seems very realistic Egypt could turn into a hostile, failed state like Yemen or Lebanon. But with much greater military technology due to decades of US providing weapons.
Same thing for Jordan. The monarchy seems committed to peace for its own survival; but the people themselves are really embracing Islamism.
dont forget france
Well Raifiki says they're running out of bombs and need to mobilize the orthodox and that's just playing around with little Gaza. Get the right (wrong actually) leader in a resurgent Syria, Jordan, Egypt or something down the line that wants to go jihad and add Hezbollah in the mix all at once and they'll more than have their hands full.
They'd be wise to start heavily diversifying their weapons suppliers.
I think our interpretations of "running out of bombs" and "need to mobilize" are different. I think that Israel "needs" to do these things not because they need them directly for Gaza, but because they always need to be prepared for that worst case scenario and having these things makes them more ready for it.
Israel and Hezbollah are constantly testing each other, and if Israel begins dipping into their stockpiles for the doomsday scenario then they hit a level where Hezbollah's tests get more severe and an all out attack gets more likely. Israel is currently above that level and they are still flush with bombs, but if for some reason that level begins to drop then things could get real bad.
Israel isn't running low on bombs, they're reaching the point that they could begin losing the tests.
Egypt was probably never as committed to peace as we would all like; and the people seem to be internally embracing Islam and Islamism. Seems very realistic Egypt could turn into a hostile, failed state like Yemen or Lebanon. But with much greater military technology due to decades of US providing weapons.
Same thing for Jordan. The monarchy seems committed to peace for its own survival; but the people themselves are really embracing Isla
Islamism seems like a boogieman. Most of the original people, outside of the occupied territories opposing Israel were secular as well as a lot of the Palestinians.
Hamas, because it's financed by one of the west arch-enemies, Iran. A sanctioned country by the USA so officially, uncontroversially an enemy to be clear.
That alone for me is sufficient to claim you can never (in a normative sense: it should be criminal to do so) in any way or form support any action which helps Hamas (if you are in a NATO country).
We aren’t at war with Hamas. They aren’t our enemy
Islamism seems like a boogieman. Most of the original people, outside of the occupied territories opposing Israel were secular as well as a lot of the Palestinians.
I think the historical role of political Islam and religious motivated xenophobia in the belligerence against Israel has been very understated by liberals. But even if this was true, it doesn't address the current political landscape very well.
In 2024 pretty much all the hostility against Israel is being done by Islamists for explicitly religious reasons. And support from the worldwide Ummah for Islamists fighting Israel is high explicitly for religious reasons. And IMO calling this a "boogeyman" is not a very accurate portrayal of the current state of affairs.
Even if people do accept that, what changes?
I assume you mean "don't".
If people understand that this is a political problem with a religious background, not a war between two religions, they can start to consider political solutions ie compromises.
No, I mean "do", but thanks for the answer. I agree with you.
I don't understand what religion having anything to do with why people choose to fight here really matters. Seems like there's a good amount of it on both sides.
Map shows the division of the West Bank into 165 prison compounds.
No, I mean "do", but thanks for the answer. I agree with you.
I don't understand what religion having anything to do with why people choose to fight here really matters. Seems like there's a good amount of it on both sides.
Because religious calculus can be irrational for very long.
And you can't compromise with people who are actually (not only rethorically) willing to have their children die for their causes in any amount, for generations.
When people who provenly act like that tell you they want you and your family and your friends all dead, you gotta believe it's true. Not a chest pounding form of negotiation.
And you gotta act accordingly.
They get to buy F-16s and have officers in US military schools
Incidentally, if you want to know who Americans consider the closest allies, look at the foreign exchange enrollments at West Point, Naval Academy, and Air Force Academy. Less close allies attend lesser academies.
Take Taiwan for example. In the aftermath of Nixon normalizing relations with the CCP, the flow of cadets to US academies paused temporarily. Then they started accepting Taiwanese cadets to schools. Now the top military academies are graduating a handful almost every year.
Pakistan is considered a 'frenemy' by the US. I don't think the Americans were surprised to discover that the Pakistani ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) was harbouring Bin Laden in Abbottabad.
Everybody knew he was in Pakistan. The military was supporting the Taliban lmao , and troops weren’t allowed to even fire into Pakistan once they reach the border.
Basically it was a safe zone for the enemy
