2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
3771 Replies
I've gotten more aggressive in the later rounds of simply getting my guys and not trying to push ADP, especially when it's something as important as my 2nd QB.
It's really tough to make the adjustment from viewing median projections versus ceiling projections and just accepting ceiling projections can have low floors at high costs.
I took Nabers in the 2nd with the idea of taking D Smith in the third to correlate week 17 with Lamb. I'm not too concerned with taking a guy a little ahead of ADP in this flat area. I've mixed it up from this spot. Maybe I should have taking Smith first. It's my first piece of Nabers.
I got lucky to get what I got with the back up after my huge mistake. I suspect JJ will be playing by week 14 but he might not be.
I shouldn't have been messing around in late round 16. This won't happen again.
Unless I have a massive lead going into that game.
Don’t have a lot of Mahomes, but I like this one
Qb - Mahomes, Nix
Rb - Najee, Conner, Javonte, Lloyd, Vidal, CEH
Wr - JJ, Nabers, DK, Worthy, Keon, Wicks, Franklin, Baker
Te - Kelce, Muth
Very nice. The Kelce/Worthy double stack with Mahomes is hard to pull off.
I’ve paired some Kelce/Muth, but I’ve seen some push back on having TEs in the same w17 game, similar to avoiding QBs in the same game.
But at least the TE can hit your flex, although the winning lineup is more likely to have RB/WR.
That is well done.
I'm getting concerned about Keon. Brandon Beane didn't sound very thrilled with his development so far. It sounds like he didn't do much blocking in college but it will be required with the Bills. I could see a slow start for him.
You are taking a lot of Javonte. Is he a player you really like or are you being funneled into taking him going with a zero RB build?
A little bit of both. I do like broncos RBs in general and I can see a ceiling for Javonte + a very likely consistent role. Also I’m drafting a lot of rb in that range and he and Chase brown are the ones I like the best. I should try to diversify a bit more
I don’t really buy the Jaleel hype
I’m on the fence on Keon. I don’t really like him that much, but he goes in a range where the only other option is like Jamo and I don’t really like him that much either
Keon is the kind of guy I don’t feel great about but I also don’t feel great fading. I’ll end up with 8-12%, with at least half of that being correlated with Josh and/or Jets.
I’m mostly fading Javonte, especially with him falling some. I think I’m at 4% right now. Payton never really seems to talk him up, especially compared to the rest of the backfield. I’ll like him more once he’s behind Singletary, BRob, and Spears.
I might back off of Aiyuk a little bit. He is not a happy camper. Not like I was going hard, as I only have 9%, but there are so many other good options at his price without contract disputes.
Backing off on Aiyuk makes sense. I’ve grabbed a bit more Pearsall after having nearly 0% before
Aiyuk will probably fall a good bit if things aren't more clear as we get closer to week one. I've been fading him but ironically I just grabbed him just now for the first time. If he got traded and was competing with less targets he could be a mega superstar. They drafted Pearsall so that means something. I'm sure they want to keep him while they have there window but who knows.
Jaleel is a nice player but he is little. He would have played a lot more if he could block. The competition for touches would come from Estime. For whatever reason Jovante isn't great around the goal line. He is a year removed from his injury so there is some upside to this pick. Denver wants to run the ball a lot.
This was an interesting draft for me. I got Achane 8 picks past ADP. I got Murry 23 picks past ADP, and Pacheco 10 picks past ADP. I ended up sticking with my original plan and drafting Lawrence even though I had Murray since he stacked nicely.
QB) Kyler, Trevor
RB) Achane, Pacheco, Pollard, Charbonnet, Dowdle, Irving.
WR) ARSB, Aiyuk, Kirk, Hopkins, G Davis, Z Jones, ODB
TE) Engram, Likely, Chig
I probably opt for another receiver over Bucky, but other than that, that’s a fun squad.
I’m at basically 0% Pearsall too. Just too many other options around him that project better, but it’d suck if Aiyuk is moved and to have nothing when Pearsall shoots up the board. He could potentially make it all the way up to the round 7 group.
For sure, and my bet still heavily leans he’s a 49er w1. But I just worry he’ll be headache, potentially hold out until he is forced to play to receive credit for the season tenure minimum, potentially sit out near the end of the season for minor injuries, etc.
At least the 49ers will still be good, lessening the risk compared to guys pissed off about contracts who sit out for minor injuries at the end for non playoff teams.
I don't see any good reason to draft him right now unless he falls well past ADP. I took him for the correlation with ARSB week 17. It's feeling like a gross pick right now especially given the flatness of the tier he goes. I have taken a ton of Deebo which I always feel good about.
That’s fair. I had been drafting him since I mostly want to be even with the field on all of the 2nd round guys, while also making sure to be heavier on Gibbs/ARSB pairings.
I do have more Deebo than Aiyuk so far, so I guess I’ll push that discrepancy a little more.
I certainly could have gone that route. I intuitively feel like 6 RBs is better than 5 RBs unless you went early RBs. I think going 5 or 6 is similar as far as advance rates. I'd rather throw the extra dart at RB and hope it hits. That being said, many of my teams have only 5. I suppose I kind of went early RB in this one. The way RBs go down I feel more comfortable with 6.
Yeah, definitely more about having 3 of your first 8 picks as RBs, plus Charb and Dowdle are strong.
On an ev scale, I don’t disagree with 6 RBs and 7 WRs as opposed to 5/8.
But would rather have Zay/ODB as my 7/8 than 6/7 WRs.
Not sure I agree with the Ol' Dirty Bastard pick considering he doesn't play football and he's dead lol
That’s what Darnold meant when he was seeing ghosts.
Rookie season:
Team 1
Jayden, Maye, Carr
CMC, Achane, Gus, Ford, Gibson
Waddle, Terry, Worthy, Rice, Ladd, Polk, Rondale
Njoku, Henry, Juwan
Team 2
AR, Maye, Carr
Warren, Singletary, BRob, Kendre, Allgeier, Vidal
ARSB, Olave, Kupp, Worthy, BTj, Adonai, Javon
McBride, Juwan
I think I'm going to have an unreasonable amount of Juwan at 17 and 18 round prices. Although, I didn't expect to have him on team 1, but I had to make shift a late Carr stack with all of my other QB targets going.
These are both beautiful well rounded teams. I can't really poke any holes.
I don't know why I put "ODB" when I should put OBJ.
I had to get in on the Mahomes stack fun.
QB) Mahomes, Carr
RB) Najee, Pollard, Conner, Chase Brown, Ty Chandler, J Wright
WR) AJ Brown, Harrison, Worthy, J Williams, Jeudy, Mims, Mcmillan
TE) Kelce, J Johnson.