2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
Got my first Saquon Lu. Wasn’t sure if 3 qb was necessary or not with Dak
Qb - Dak, Bryce, Nix
Rb - Saquon, White, Swift, Lloyd, Chandler
Wr - CD, Smith, Hollywood, Diontae, Cooks, Jeudy, R Wilson, Mims
Te - McBride, Sanders
Well you pretty much have a 1 QB lineup when your other guys are a midget (sorry heels) and grandpa nix 😀
Haha. Bryce is going to put sorry Heels to rest this season!
I might would rather have a 3rd TE than a 3rd QB on that team, since Sanders is a relatively weaker option than Bryce at position, but I think it's fine as built.
The back half of the draft is an annoying place to be. At every point through the first 6 rounds, you have great options at QB/RB/TE. However, if you don't secure at least 4 WRs in the first 6 rounds, you basically feel ****ed since you're never getting a WR you feel great about at the end of the 7th. This is Underdog specific, but sometimes I Just end up with 3 WRs through 7 and say I'll fix it later haha.
The silver lining is that I like a lot of the WR options at the 11/12 turn. But the best picks in rounds 7/8 and 9/10 are generally either QB/RB/TE, so you have to be careful not to take too many detours in the first 6 rounds.
The WRs kind of suck at the 13/14 turn too.
The back half of the draft is an annoying place to be. At every point through the first 6 rounds, you have great options at QB/RB/TE. However, if you don't secure at least 4 WRs in the first 6 rounds, you basically feel ****ed since you're never getting a WR you feel great about at the end of the 7th. This is Underdog specific, but sometimes I Just end up with 3 WRs through 7 and say I'll fix it later haha.
The silver lining is that I l
What you said also applies to DK . There’s def specific position dead zones .
Definitely, there will always be pockets, but I was referring to the WRs specifically. At least on DK, guys like Addison, Odunze, BTj, Diontae, JSN, etc. aren't typically gone by the mid 7th.
I don’t agree, but I understand why you’d be out on the other guys. Why Addison?
Here are some thoughts I have after doing 40 low stakes tournaments so far. I will be starting DK Millie or BBM or both in a couple weeks. Now is the time for reflecting on what I have learned.
1) This year reminds me a lot of several years ago when everybody was drafting RBs early because there were so many great options at WR in rounds 7-11. It turned out that this area of the draft stunk for WRs. I'm getting concerned that we are in the same situation but with RBs this year. It just seems too good to be true. When I go zero RB my team on paper looks fantastic. There are just so many RBs too choose from in the middle later rounds. They all look so good. I feel like I have beer goggles on when drafting later RBs. I'm probably gonna relax my Zero RB ways going forward. I have no exposure to Henry, little exposure to Gibbs, JT, and Kyren. If these guy's are a value I will be more likely to take them instead of focusing on a zero RB build.
Actually I'll post these individually so not to overwhelm you all.
I like him as a player but too much uncertainty at qb . Yet I still like Jefferson . So lol me
It makes sense that if the QBs struggle Addison will be hurt more than Jefferson. We know Jefferson will get his targets but he may not be as efficient. I've already mentioned that I'm concerned about Jefferson this year. He feels like a "We should have known better" pick. All the other guy's going around him have very good QBs. I'll take him if he drops behind Bijan and Breece just in case I'm wrong. I feel better about him in best ball since I know he'll still have his huge games. I'm just worried about the consistency.
He's been going in the 17th and 18th so certainly great value. He is easy to stack if your targeting him as your number 2 or 3 in that area. I wonder where he will go once he is officially declared the starter. Round 14 maybe? The Broncos will be playing from behind a lot and he can run. It probably makes sense to grab your shares now.
Nix, JJ, Bryce, Maye are my highest owned QBs (outside of Allen) because they’re extremely easy to stack late and cheap
They kinda fit all builds. If you’re going elite qb (which I mostly have been), you just grab one of them late and don’t worry about it much
If you’re going 3 QBs, they’re an extremely cheap 3rd qb option at the end of the draft
Only annoying thing is Maye and nix share a bye w a lot of the elite QBs
Has anybody entered a Weekly winners contest on UD?
Here are some thoughts I have after doing 40 low stakes tournaments so far. I will be starting DK Millie or BBM or both in a couple weeks. Now is the time for reflecting on what I have learned.
1) This year reminds me a lot of several years ago when everybody was drafting RBs early because there were so many great options at WR in rounds 7-11. It turned out that this area of the draft stunk for WRs. I'm getting concerned that we are in the
I like both posted ideas you share. Something I find different is it can be easy to grab several rookie RBs and even WRs in rounds 11-19. Don't know how I feel about it.
Nix, JJ, Bryce, Maye are my highest owned QBs (outside of Allen) because they’re extremely easy to stack late and cheap
They kinda fit all builds. If you’re going elite qb (which I mostly have been), you just grab one of them late and don’t worry about it much
If you’re going 3 QBs, they’re an extremely cheap 3rd qb option at the end of the draft
Only annoying thing is Maye and nix share a bye w a lot of the elite QBs
The bye week balance is definitely annoying. I also hesitate to draft Maye and JJ in 2 QB builds with Mahomes or Hurts since there's a good chance they're not starting yet for respective bye weeks. Dak is risky too. They're fun pairings with Josh, Kyler, Burrow, and Love. W14 is a brutal bye week, and the double whammy is it being the last week of the fantasy regular season.
I expect Nix to start w1. Bryce will start all 17, barring injury.
Btw I really like Jermaine Burton and Luke McCaffrey. Pearsall too if the 9ers WR room loses Aiyuk.
I'm fading all of the non-standard contests.
WW appeals to the masses for the weekly sweat, but the ROI potential just seems terrible. I have no interest trying to beat 186k teams per week for only $20k. And then only the top 2.15% even cash on a given week, and it's not even for the full buy in. I'd rather just play Battle Royales where I get to start with a fresh roster each week, where the field is smaller, the price point is either equal or half, and the first prize is larger.
I also ran the numbers on the ev of The Eliminator structure, and your odds of making the finals really aren't that much better than BBM, with a way smaller potential payoff. And the weekly pod luck is going to end up being insane.
The Sprint seems like it could be a fun contest, but the $50 price point is too high. I wonder if this one even fills entirely.
The Marathon is meh to me. I played some of the $2 Drafters contests to start the draft season and just didn't enjoy the strategy in the same way I do for the current standard best ball games. I'll just get my season long fix through redraft/dynasty.
I respect UD for trying to offer different styles, and I know some people like it, but they're just not for me. I'll keep firing the Puppys, Chihuahuas, Schnauzers, etc.
I'm still not sure if I'm drafting superflex correctly, but I think I'm going to keep trying to figure that one out, especially since the structure is the same style as the standard contests.
As for RBs I'm not overly familiar with Guerendo but I think can run pretty well. Also like Emari Demercado for ARI
It makes sense that if the QBs struggle Addison will be hurt more than Jefferson. We know Jefferson will get his targets but he may not be as efficient. I've already mentioned that I'm concerned about Jefferson this year. He feels like a "We should have known better" pick. All the other guy's going around him have very good QBs. I'll take him if he drops behind Bijan and Breece just in case I'm wrong. I feel better about him in best ball si
The counterpoint to fading JJ, and even Addison, is who the **** else do they have? Brandon Powell is the projected third receiver and isn't even being drafted. No telling when Hock comes back or what he will look like. The other TEs are bad. It's bullish for A Jones and Chandler too, especially catching out of the backfield.
No telling what McCarthy will look like, but he has pedigree and a decent arm. Even if it's inefficient, JJ and Addison should get their targets. I'm in on JJ at cost and basically just draft him at 5, or if he falls, I'll still take him ahead of ARSB, Bijan and Breece. JJ is the best receiver in the league, and I'm willing to simply bet on that for 8% of my portfolio, regardless of his environment.
Additionally, I don't expect their defense to be that great, so even if KOC wants to throw less with a rookie QB, which isn't his style, I think they'll be forced into throwing simply because of game script. And if Darnold is starting, he can still get the ball to the receivers, even if the team isn't actually good overall.
I almost always just take the top 8 in the same order of their ADP, even if they fall. I.e., if Bijan and Breece are both there at 8, I'll still take Bijan. And honestly, I'll spread that to the top 11. I just let it flow AJB, Puka, and Wilson after the top 8. 12 is where I'll start to mix it up.
With that said, I'll probably be underweight on Addison, mainly because I like the other guys going around him more. I'd rather take Worthy, Rome, Ladd, Hopkins, BTj, Rice, and Watson. I'll take Addison over Diontae, Keon, and JSN.
The counterpoint to fading JJ, and even Addison, is who the **** else do they have? Brandon Powell is the projected third receiver and isn't even being drafted. No telling when Hock comes back or what he will look like. The other TEs are bad. It's bullish for A Jones and Chandler too, especially catching out of the backfield.
No telling what McCarthy will look like, but he has pedigree and a decent arm. Even if it's inefficient, JJ an
I’m usually going one of the other positions by than. But I usually have 4 wrs by round 6.
I have it Addison, Nuk, Rome, Worthy, Rice,Diontae, BTj, Ladd, Watson
With Diontae, Ladd and Watson in a separate tier
I think I have something like 17% Addison and 15% Rome, and then 8-10% on Nuk, Worthy, Rice, and way under on BTj, Ladd, and Watson
At least on underdog when you can only get 1-2 of these guys max
On DK I think BTj is one of my most owned players along with Nuk, but they were going so late when I was drafting there
Two late sleepers are Quez Watkins and Cedric Wilson
So doing a milly and have 4 really good rbs but 2 have the same bye week. Would you guys stay at 4 or take a 5th?
