2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Gatekeeping what is said in this thread really has to stop. Some version of this happens every year. If you don't like to talk about politics than political betting isn't for you.

I agree. And I know I'm guilty of it in here and I'm about to be even more guilty. But the notion that the mainstream media is not left leaning is patently, objectively, absurd. Its false. Like, I can't even believe I have to say that in here. Its always the ones that call everyone else out for b being 'misinformed' that are the ones the most misinformed. Thats such a scary thing going on these days. People accusing others of things that theyre guilty of.

Sorry. End rant, I know this is annoying. I have no bets going this cycle, nowhere to place em. I just seem to enjoy getting all riled up online for some reason.

i'll give you +400 that you misused the concept of gatekeeping just now

Did I technically misuse some obscure academic theory that a third party you choose would side on you with? Probably. However anyone with a modicum of common sense knows what I am saying here.

i'm simply asking that we don't go off the rails and ruin this thread with politarding

if this thread is nothing but pointless back and forth that has nothing to do with actual +EV discussion then people will be discouraged from posting betting discussion because it'll just go off the rails

what had started as a discussion about dropout likelihood and what the market had on that quickly spiraled into a pointless back and forth "nuh uh, the other side are idiots" discussion

it killed the good discussion and discourage future discussion of good stuff

we have another thread for the "nuh uh the other side is dumb" so there's no reason to pollute this one with that as well

over the years we've always been really good about keeping general politics discussions in the election threads and actionable discussion in here

i know i'm not leading by example myself, not contributing much ev, but that's because I haven't looked into things yet, it's too far off for me to tie up large amounts imo - but i do plan on researching heavily and sharing my findings and positions here but i'm simply not going to do that if it's just a rtarded back and forth politarding thread but then just keep everything contained in small discord groups into of posting here into the ether

it's very -ev to post +ev on a public message board to begin with, the only reason to share your stuff with a dozen active talkers and 200+ lurkers is for the small bit of community you have with the dozen who post - if that community is just back and forth "yeah msnbc sucks balls" getting responses of "but oann is even worse" then there is no community to share it

I agree that I think this thread is making money. Let me offer some pushback here: one of the reasons I don't mind some of the political talk is that it lets me gauge the psychology of a large array of people. Many of which I wouldn't have access too. This is one of the few places where we have about a 50/50 partisan mix and we seem to be interacting with each other. I find people like Barney Big nuts interesting, and I wish he kept posting to be honest. It's an interesting window into how at least part of the country views the world. And even on the broader picture, I think there are many things that we would have come to agree on if we keep up the dialog.

I can concede that maybe more specific bet talk might be a good addition, but just because it doesn't directly address betting doesn't mean it can't be useful.

In other news: the first presidential debate is in a week. We should do a live viewing here.

I appreciate you pointing it out

Tom - I understand that there are 'more' left leaning outlets, because Fox has captured a huge market share of the right and the left is more spread out across multiple outlets - my point is that there is absolutely no difficulty or any left or right leaning person in America to find a major news outlet that agrees with their pre existing world view and we agree that most people will consume media that agrees with their pre-existing world view, so people acting like the media has been 'captured' by the left are wrong because conservatives are still getting their media from conservative leaning sources. If you have 100 people and 50 watch Fox and 25 watch MSNBC and 25 watch CNN, you still have 50 people getting their news from a conservative leaning source and 50 people getting their news from a progressive leaning source. Even if there are two 'left' and one 'right' wing media outlets in this instance a similar percentage of people are consuming left and right wing media.

Right now on Betfair Biden is -384 to be the Democratic nominee, the only reason i'm not maxing it is to not tie up liquid for months but the true price on this should be like -4000 or -5000 or something so if anyone wants it and doesn't care about tying up their cash for a few months it's good, the only reason i'm not myself is I recently bought a house outright and am turning the entire sports roll over on high edge sports stuff on a regular basis and I don't think tying it up for months is necessarily worth it even if I think the bet has a 20%+ ROI I can probably turn that cash over a few dozen times between now and the election and then if Biden to be nominated is still -1000 the day before the convention or whatever I can just max it then - it's a conspiracy theory oriented market and betting against the conspiracy theorists will always pay dividends in political markets. I'd rather make 8% or whatever tying the money up for one day than make 20% tying it up for months though and by then the fair price will be like -100000 assuming Biden is still the presumptive nominee but he'll likely be priced like there is a 5-10% chance of someone else being nominated anyway the day before the DNC even though that falls to effectively zero by then (the chances he dies in a one day window, basically)

Re the debate: I think Biden beats expectations because bafflingly the right have set Biden's expectations so low that anything other than him looking like a dementia patient is a 'win' as far as expectations go. If Biden is coherent, which he likely will be, it will damage the 'he's a senile old man who has lost his mind' narrative. No idea who 'wins' the debate, I don't think it matters so much as does Biden present himself as mentally competent. Ironically I don't think it matters whether Trump presents himself as mentally competent as his supporters will claim he won the debate regardless of what happens and I don't think many undecideds/hate both candidates types will be making up their mind this far out. I think everyone has an opinion about Trump already, although as we get deeper into the campaign independents will likely be reminded why they don't like him much when he starts doing Trump things. I don't think it matters much this far out though.

The market might overreact to individual debate moments which will be interesting though when I doubt anything that will matter long term happens in the first debate

yes

Swoop, do you think wikipedia has any sort of bias?

DNC has reimplemented covid-era virtual nomination processes that should get Biden nominated ahead of the DNC, which shortens the window and boosts Biden YES odds.

Kalshi has a market on number of prez debates this year. It's titled "How many Trump-Biden debates?" but official rules more generally count any debates between D/R nominees without naming names. People who bet Zero on the notion Biden would dropout due to health concerns were drawing dead from the start.

I can't say I go reading Wikipedia articles looking for political bias lol I have absolutely no idea it's not a major source for my current political news

Have I been bored and read articles on ex presidents on a flight or whatever sure do I have any idea if there's any political bias in Wikipedia's Calvin Coolidge article no idea whatsoever lol

Nobody is getting their current political news from Wikipedia so I don't think it matters for election betting purposes

nice humble brag that you can afford inflight wifi

Beat: most Aussie flights still don't have in flight wifi so I have actually pre loaded long Wikipedia articles to read before fights lol

Biden 5 Newsom 12 live

lol the market is truly spastic, really, it thinks Biden drops out a third of the time or whatever? lol

Swoop are you still at 2%

Swoop you still think Biden should be backed and the fav? I don’t see how they can even run him after that. Granted he woke up as it went along, but the first half hour was sad.

looks like you're going to be even richer than you already are with that 1% valuation

(didnt see debate, just going off market moves, there is now quite an overlay for those that think biden is near lock to be nom)

lol no way biden is making it to november

by CLV.Guru P

lol no way biden is making it to november

Well you can have +167 right now on Biden not to be the Democratic nominee at the convention against me if you want (current betfair price)

There sure seem to be a lot of people convinced Biden won't be the nominee because you don't really understand how difficult it would be for Biden to step aside right now even if he wanted to post-primaries

I'm putting my money where my mouth is for all of the idiots who are terrible at probability. So far no one has taken up a single bet i've proposed in the thread

Happy to back Biden to be D nominee at Betfair price. Anyone reputable keen on the other side let me know.

Swoop might you consider, rather than challenging people on a dying message board to bet at Betfair market odds, instead just betting on Betfair at market odds? That market should be determined within a month so seems worth it if it's the overlay you are sure it is

There is value in not tying up liquidity I will turn over multiple times in the month if anyone I know/trust wants the other side and there should be value in that for the other party too

Obviously I can and will back stuff on Betfair and/or other books as well.

On convention day I will obviously snap up the clearly wrong market price there when it's grading within 24 hours since if Biden hasn't dropped out as of convention day he will be 99.99% to be the nominee but the market will likely price him like he's 85% to be the nominee or whatever

I understand there's value on my side out there at the moment and I will get some of it but i'm throwing the offer out there because why not.

this is just cope goalpost moving following awful analysis

no one said what you are saying they said or is "bad at probability"

if you think Biden is really 2% to drop out and the market thinks he is 30% to drop out then have it at

fwiw if Biden is nominee the nomination will come before convention day