2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Market's actually closer to 40%. Real people are making that market move, that is what i'm referring to by people are bad at probability. Some people in thread have outright posted that Biden won't be the nominee etc and they're bad at probability too.

The market is wrong though i'm right so whatever, it is what it is, if anyone wants to bet against me they can and if not i'll make my bets elsewhere.

Biden is going to be the nominee 90-something percent of the time still, the market is still wrong and i'm still right, and we'll see that when the Democratic party nominates their candidate.

With regards to the general obviously if I had to bet today it would be the Biden side but I see no reason to get involved this many months out and tie up the capital for ages.

Long time lurker. First time poster. A few months ago, someone wanted to bet me Biden wouldnt be the democratic nominee in 2024 at 15 to 1 (i know he was getting the worst of it by far, but he proposed the terms) My 30k to his 1500. My side is biden will be the democratic nominee. After watching the debate, I’m obviously a little nervous. Im not the sharpest sportsbetter, what would be the best way to hedge my bet since I’m not too confident anymore. I appreciate any advice. Thanks.

You really shouldn't be betting, or doing arithmetic.

My mistake, obviously meant 20-1. Appreciate ur advice, dont know why i bother posting something. Hopefully, ur response makes u feel better.

Holy ****. What an embarrassing night for this country. We have a president that you LITERALLY would not trust to run the cash register at an ice cream shop. You wouldnt let this guy drive or watch your kid for an hour. And hes the president and wants another 4 years. lol. I went from laughing to feeling bad for him to finally feeling immense anger. They arent even hiding it anymore. We know Biden isnt running things, so who is?

I bought a tiny bit of DJT stock at the start of the debate last night. I dont care about the stock but it seems like a good proxy for Trump in general. If he wins I would imagine the stock goes way up. Only a couple hundred bucks, more for fun than anything. I really cannot believe how bad Biden was last night though. I expected him to be terrible and I was still blown away. Its a weird feeling this morning, being embarrassed to be an American.

There can be a fine line between buying something unfairly beaten down (FTOPB) and buying actual junk. When Biden has lost the entire NYT Opinion page, I think it's all over for the old man. There's soon going to be a Goldwater/Nixon moment where Biden is informed he has to resign.

IMO the play right now is to bet Democrats to win the Presidential Election at 38c on Polymarket.

Why the hell would you make that bet that far out if you're not gonna hold it through one bad debate

You were basically betting that Biden doesn't die or become terminally ill

While obviously he had a bad day he isn't gonna drop out because of one bad debate.

It's already back at -180 after peaking at like -130 or whatever

It's literally the worst time possible to hedge that bet so just hold if the loss wouldn't be ruinous to you and if it would why on earth would you book it

He's still going to be the nominee, whether he wins the general is another story and it is obviously way too soon to make any calls on that either way

Bov@da is so stingy , newsom is +600. Wtf

Fair enough.

I think Biden stays in too, but 2% is/was absurd to me. Last night debate performance was not that hard to predict. If the guy is just mush then the calls are only going to increase to remove him. Who knows how much power can coalesce around going against him.

Also agree +500 on Betfair would be a good price since it seems to be around +350 everywhere else. Think the election is still coming down to like 50-100k people in 3 swing states just like the last 2 have.

The only person Biden will listen to is Jill Biden. And for some reason, she's all-in on Joe running. The old man ain't going nowhere. I gotta say, Biden kind of rules. If only Nixon would have had the Biden-like balls to have told Goldwater "**** off, Jack" to his face. I don't think Democrats can win with this guy but God bless people voting for him. It's definitely pushing to the extreme my comparison of a brain-damaged Fetterman winning in PA. I think Fetterman's debate performance actually was better than Biden's.

fully acknowledge i'm straying into politics subforum: "1 bad debate" is a fallacy here. he has had a number of embarrassing moments in public appearances. this is the first one MSM has publicly acknowledged and not called a cheapfake.

joe's, jill's, or whoever's calling the shots decision to keep on after this latest embarrassment and collapse of party confidence is impressive.

Elderly abuse. Dr. Jill and the dems should be ashamed of themselves.

got a small amount of biden to get dem nom at 63 cents on predictit - seriously considering just cashing out profits now

biden fading fast this evening. interestingly kamala's picking up most of the steam.

yikes

The Biden family will all be at Camp David today for a pre-scheduled family vacation. Will they have a serious discussion about Biden's re-election bid or are they simply there to plot the crime family's next move?

It can be difficult to tell if prediction markets are moving due to actual insider information leaking or if it's just the right-wing echo chamber having a moment. Either way, it's good to see prediction markets doing what they're supposed to do.

The only thing surprising to me about the Biden debate performance is how shocked everyone is. He performed at (or above) the level I expected. So it really does show how much of society is not paying attention. Probably how we ended up here.

I think the best argument for Biden staying in is that there is no one who is a better candidate. In the head-to-head theoreticals both Harris and Newsome have done far worse. Harris got something like 1%~ of the Democratic primary vote and was chosen in the immediate aftermath of the George Floyd riots. She’s not really a good candidate. Newsome is a bit better but the optics of choosing white man over Kamala are so bad, especially with how Democrats have set themselves up over the several last years. They’re in a prison of their own making. They really don’t have a viable candidate.

This. People have simply been believing the lies that MSM and DNC continue to say that he's sharp and commands the room.

In reality, he's kinda with it from 10am to 4pm and then sundowns.

agreed, it was more or less exactly what i expected

i do feel the reaction is a bit strong and more indicative that nobody has been watching president talk much in the last 2 years outside of state of the union

A few somewhat related points.

Gallup Party Affiliation Polling shows the number of people self-identifying as D/R reached an all-time low.

From a separate poll done after the debate, of those people who still identify as Democrats, a majority still think Biden should remain the nominee

I personally think at this point any Democrat (including Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, etc) would be better than Biden, but Biden is that devil that we know.

I put a lot (too much?) of faith in prediction markets. While Biden's debate performance was certainly within the range of possible outcomes, the huge degree of movement in prediction markets pre/post debate shows this was not something that was reasonably priced into the market. You can argue that markets are inefficient, but to say that how bad Biden performed was entirely predictable I think is using a lot of hindsight bias.

Biden was 85% nominee right before the debate started. After the first abysmal half hour he fell to 66%. He then recovered and had what I thought was a median or slightly better than expected hour into the close. Predictit markets agreed and he improved to 78% by the end of the debate. I think what markets did not anticipate was CNN, NYT et al's consensus acknowledgements that Bidens a lost cause with calls to step down. With that the market gapped down to 60%.

It WAS entirely predictable, that's the thing. Did you read the Hur report (or know of its existence)? He didn't remember simple things like when he was vice president or when his son died. Did you see the clips of him at the last G7 convention? I had assumed the market was pricing this stuff in, but apparently not.

Perhaps the other side of this coin is that my news resources are alot better than yours.