2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
Biden was 85% nominee right before the debate started. After the first abysmal half hour he fell to 66%. He then recovered and had what I thought was a median or slightly better than expected hour into the close. Predictit markets agreed and he improved to 78% by the end of the debate. I think what markets did not anticipate was CNN, NYT et al's consensus acknowledgements that Bidens a lost cause with calls to step down. With that the marke
Thats quite interesting. Its almost like the prediction markets priced in Biden being senile, but didnt price in everyone (mainly democrats) NOT knowing that. What a weird cycle this is.
I want to add a point to this: just because you have a more accurate perception of something, does not mean you're just going to be able to directly translate it to profit via financial markets. Markets move in mysterious ways for a variety of reasons. As I stated, the only shocking thing to me was how shocked everyone was. That was the most unpredictable part of this episode.
Thats quite interesting. Its almost like the prediction markets priced in Biden being senile, but didnt price in everyone (mainly democrats) NOT knowing that. What a weird cycle this is.
as you can imagine, it's been a pretty big topic recently and i'm just shocked by how many friends of mine had no idea about his decline
i point out the many many videos of him acting disoriented and confused on stage and they pretty much all said they just assumed they were faked/edited/etc and only now realize it's the real deal
Not sure of the accuracy of this report, but it is in contrast.
Also, keep in mind back in 2012 we learned about Presidential Debate Zigzag Theory which would have predicted Biden would lose the first debate. According to that, he'll do better the second time (assuming he is still alive and it happens).
only took an hour for them to report the opposite and their source for earlier one was lol
last i checked bill oreilly was hosting a youtube channel from his garage and had stopped washing or ironing his shirts. seems in the know.
Spoiler
538 still giving biden the slight edge over trump at 50/49, lmao. should've kept nate silver on.
i dunno i feel like the chorus is only going to grow for him to drop from here, not going to bet it or anything but think it is damn close to 5050 he drops now
forget the debate, that scene at the post-debate rally when his wife says "You answered all the questions Joe!" and he's just standing there looking like a dog with his mouth open, it just feels like that guy isn't going to be President much longer.
In one corner you have the entire democratic party and common sense saying relinquish nomination. In the other corner you have the Bidens saying **** you. How does one handicap this? Looking to Swoop here.
Does anyone else think its hilariously on brand that the mouth breathing Dems keep saying 'cheap fakes' when they clearly mean 'deep fakes'?
Does anyone else think its hilariously on brand that the mouth breathing Dems keep saying 'cheap fakes' when they clearly mean 'deep fakes'?
i'm sure you meant to post that in the election thread and aids up this one by accident
dude theres literally ONE active decent thread in here now. This one. Normally Id agree with you but this place is a ghost town. I think pretty much any post is a good post at this point
I have to say as fun as this election season is going to be the best is still to come because no matter who wins it's going to be amazing. If Biden wins there's no way Republicans will accept the results as legitimate because the alternative would be believing their party is so bad that Americans prefer a dementia patient over them. If Republicans win Democrats will meltdown as they are forced to reckon with the most self-inflicted political failure of all time. Such a fun election cycle thank you 2024.
here here
dude theres literally ONE active decent thread in here now. This one. Normally Id agree with you but this place is a ghost town. I think pretty much any post is a good post at this point
there's been 15 posts in the other thread today - it's not dead
i like you, but please don't aids this up with random political shower thoughts
biden firming again.. nice bet rick
costanza-opposite bets are my style, so tempted to back him just because its so counterintuitive. every news outlet that was once deliriously pumping him as never sharper, sharp-as-a-tack is now unanimously calling for him to step down with cutting headlines. at this point it feels near certain that if he goes through with accepting nomination he's dead on arrival in the general. yet markets imply if he sticks it out to election day he's near 50/50.
yeah it's nice to see it get back positive, considering buying nos on a bunch of others like hilldawg and buttigieg but it's tying up a decent amount of dinero for a pretty small return
partisans would find this blasphemous but if you arent enjoying this election cycle you have no sense of humor
either way some of the worst people are going to be on stone cold mega tilt
its either trump or "you answered all the questions joe!" lolol
Very revealing about American politics when the focus of the Biden White House is on reassuring big money donors.
Also, 2016 Republican Primary Trump: "These Super PACs are a disaster by the way, folks, very corrupt. It’s going to lead to a lot of disasters … There is total control of the candidates. I know it better than anybody that probably ever lived … I know the system far better than anybody else, and I know the system is broken. I’m the only one up here that’s going to be able to fix that system because that system is wrong."
Trump now: Billionaire Miriam Adelson Plans to Give...
Rick Astley was right all along. We know the game and we're gonna play it.
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I don't think Biden ever voluntarily drops out. Like many Senators he spent a long time seeing himself in the Oval Office. He ran in 88, 08, nearly ran in 16, and got there in 20. Now he's surrounded by Klain and his inner circle of staffers, many of whom have been with him a long time. Most of whom would lose their jobs if a new President came in.
Legally and according to party rules he has the whip hand. He's the President. He pressures. He can't be pressured.
Legally if he's off the ballot, Democrat ballot access can be jeopardized in some states.
According to DNC rules, his pledged delegates are his unless he drops. He has a majority of the regular delegates as pledged delegates. And the Superdelegates are not permitted to vote on the first ballot.
So he won't drop out. He can't be forced out. And he can't be replaced.
The only way he's out is if he has a health crisis. But again, he's the President. He has excellent medical care.
