2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

biden under 50% to win nom now, unsure if i should increase my position or accept a smaller loss and sell now

are we factoring in the clintons having him killed?

i think they already got him 2 years ago and it's weekend at bernies ever since

the whole D party is conspiring at this point. don't worry, jill will protect him

if the investment thesis is bidens just dgaf and want to exercise his god given right to be a lame duck nominee, then this would be a juicy time to double down as dem leaders are now publicly calling for him to step aside

kamala taking the entirety of the surging action against makes me think there are informed bettors moving the line though

swoop where are we at? any chance biden steps down if he is alive?

just feels like a matter of time now, if he fades all this momentum and then wins the Presidency

it is 1 of the great comebacks in modern times

but hes probably donezo

walls are closing in

polymarket, which has generally been more bearish on biden, has him at 62% to be nominee but 17% to win election
predictit has 49% nominee 26% election

make it make sense

Man, 17 seems insanely low to me. And im about as Anti-Biden as one can be.

There's been a ton of Kamala steam today, Predictit allows trades on inside information. It wouldn't shock me if they know something.

Best case scenario, Biden stays the course and against all odds, he gets re-elected. He serves for a couple of years, then steps down and passes the torch to KDawg. As the incumbent, Democrats will rig the primary for her to be the party nominee in 2028. That's the ideal scenario right now. So instead of that, if Biden resigns now, all he's doing is moving the best-case scenario forward a couple of years. Let's gooo.

Plus I really want to see Swoop be wrong and Domer be right.

NYT, CNN, MSNBC, prominent names within party

just seems like all the vultures are circling

man if Biden fades this smoke and wins the election at 81, that would be something

The issue is Harris is a black woman but also a far worse nominee than Biden

Dems can't nominate her because she's a worse candidate than Biden but if they overlook her for a white man in Newsom or even a white woman in Whitmer etc it pisses the identity politics part of the base off, Michelle Obama at no point has been a serious option and the insiders know Harris is an even worse candidate than Biden so she's not an option either. At the end of the day the Ds are stuck with Biden and if he has a better second debate performance it'll likely be fine and the race will revert back to coinflip etc

Biden's still going to be the nominee barring a terminal diagnosis an enormous percentage of the time and the -113 on offer on Betfair is absurdly plus ev

PredictIt currently has Biden 42, Harris 39

i dunno maybe they can

Biden 2.40 to be the Nom is def something

I did note on one of my early posts in thread that if Biden isn't the nom Harris would be the best D candidate to hedge with as she would be the presumptive nominee if it's late in the process although I still expect Biden doesn't step aside and gets the Nom I guess I have to start to respect the market movement although I'd still much rather have Biden +140 than field for d nom and think it's still +ev

Fascinating to see what happens from here. If they're going to replace him it has to be very very soon every day that passes makes it less likely and I just can't see it barring a major health issue still. Kamala is a ****ing terrible candidate in a very important election and Biden is more electable than she is even if he has lost a major step

Lol Swoop. Doesn't every side say this exact line every 4 years? "The stakes have never been higher. You better vote like your life depends on it."

The market is WRONG , I am RIGHT

Political predicting is hard. Outlier events sure seem to happen a lot more than expected, except of course when they don't. Much respect to those who are successful at it.

What do you think the true price is? Obviously you're off the 2% train by now

Yeah i'm off the 2% train as I have to respect the market a bit. I honestly don't know but I would be very surprised if the Ds roll Biden for Harris off one bad debate and doing so would be a tremendously awful move. They can't skip Harris because it would piss off too many black/female voters if they overlooked a black woman as the sitting VP for a white man in Newsom and there is no chance Michelle is running on short notice

Gut instinct right now is like Biden 85/Harris 14/Other 1 or whatever with other mostly being Whitmer? Until we actually see Biden get replaced I do not think it is remotely anywhere near 50% to happen despite what the market thinks.

Anyway, still like Biden D nom at market price and will until such a time as him being replaced happens, as I don't think it will happen. A guy like Biden doesn't work his whole life to be President to give it up voluntarily when it's the pinnacle of his life's work, even if he is too old and I don't think the Ds will push him aside for a bad candidate in Harris. They might have if they had a good candidate lined up as incumbent VP but they don't.

very strongly considering doubling down on my biden win nom position

is the back biden thesis that he nails the stephanopoulos interview and otherwise reassures democrats he's fit to lead in the coming weeks, or that despite any intraparty opposition he gives the middle finger and they're SOL because they can't technically do anything about him becoming nominee?

if it's the former i do not see it happening, definitely <10% chance. the shitstorm recently unleashed from all sides on karine jean-pierre was clearly a tide that has irreparably turned. she offered nothing to reassure anyone, as if she knew genuinely doubling down on the message he's fit to lead would be more damaging to her reputation and future job prospects than just taking a beating while looking defeated. NYT is running three new op-eds per day calling for him to step down. even CNN is signaling they're done. probably more importantly, major donors have signaled they're done. "one bad debate" per swoop makes no sense -- the "joe has lost his faculties" narrative has been floating for a long time, apologists had done their best to downplay or deny that narrative, but the debate has caused even them to do a 180 and call for him to step down. while i put little past them, they're definitely not doing another 180 and vigorously defending him again in the same way unless he gets a body and brain transplant. 75% of dems want him to step down and he's approaching double digit deficits in national polls to say nothing of key swing states. his support is gone.

if it's the latter, i'm intrigued. it's unclear to me what mechanisms are in place if he's obstinate but the party absolutely wants him gone? even that scenario seems unlikely to me, since it would basically cement his legacy as one of the most hated and treacherous democratic presidents oat, locking in a near guaranteed loss to a clown. but if he goes down that path nonetheless and decides he wants the nomination, is he a shoo-in? my understanding is the DNC could change convention rules in extenuating circumstances and that a minority contingent of superdelegates could play a spoiler role, but i have no way of assessing the plausibility of this scenario.

tldr; swoop... what do you put biden's reelection odds at?

I think the closest comparable situation here are the responses to the Google search, "how to get grandpa to stop driving." Surprisingly it's not easy with many people recommending just taking the car keys away. Now if Grandpa was a Joe Biden level badass he'd turn around and file a police report on his own family for theft but I digress... The difference here is that from what I can gather the Biden White House is very insular with him only listening to a close knit set of advisors who all seem to be pushing Joe to stay in the race. The unique combination of delusion from aging, political egotism, and encouragement from trusted advisors will make it very difficult to get the old man to give up the keys. I don't think he's quitting voluntarily.

The dam has broken and the knives are out for Joe. This won't be no softball interview from Stephanopoulos. It will be an "I'm interviewing a political rival" style interview IMO.

Post-debate polls seem to indicate Biden slipping around 2-5 points. Bad, but not a total disaster. It's just enough to give false hope that this is recoverable to those who want to see it. But more realistic analysts realize this wasn't a one bad debate situation and that even worse moments are inevitable.

My general thesis is that political parties (and in turn the government they operate) essentially operate like the mob. When their ultimate goal of exercising political power is compromised, then the mob will take action. Joe will not be the nominee. How exactly that happens, I don't know. He will be forced out if need be. Right now I'd put him at around ~25% to be the nominee.

As much as I love a good conspiracy theory, the Biden team is loyal to the old man. They ain't setting him up for failure. I go back to what I was saying earlier in that Biden's disaster of a debate performance was obvious only in hindsight. I think ideally the Biden team would have liked to refuse to debate altogether on the grounds that it's beneath the office of the presidency to debate a convicted felon or some other bullshit. But the Biden team saw Biden slightly trailing in the polls and figured a competitive showing in a debate against Trump would put to rest fears about Biden being too old. Worst case scenario, he has a bad debate but it's June which would give them plenty of time to recover. The Hindenburg degree of a performance that actually happened while possible, wasn't considered a likely outcome. At least that's how the Biden team viewed it. Whoops. That's what makes the most sense to me.

Right, that makes the most sense.

The fact that they didn't see it coming gives credence to the idea that it was in fact an anomaly. But if that were the case then he should be going out and doing televised interviews, town halls with voters etc. The fact that he hasn't thus lends credence to the idea that his team doesn't think he's capable and that it WASN'T an anomaly.

If it was just a bad night then get his ass out there repeatedly to show off his mental fitness. If it wasn't just a bad night and is part of a larger pattern of behavior then they shouldn't have scheduled the debate in the first place.

That's what I'm having trouble reconciling. Unless his decline was that rapid and steep.

That is very much most likely what has been going on, why else would the earliest debate in history be orchestrated before the convention? The fact that anyone would be surprised at this terrible level of mental acuity from Biden is already a shock. It means that person has paid close to 0% attention over his tenure.

I don't think they have any problem being the bad guys, there is no loyalty or ethics in that swamp. The whole Ari Emanuel spiel the other night was just softcore PR. Him and his buddies are jeeting Biden out of the chair and putting another puppet in place. They can and will apply more pressure until he is gone.

The next puppet will be installed as I've been saying for over a year now.