2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I agree with Johnny's thinking that it doesn't make sense. And I agree with Tom that a conspiracy doesn't seem likely. Especially if these are the puppet masters—they suddenly can't control their own puppet and want him gone so that they can install... Kamala or Newsom? If these are smart people, they wouldn't have believed that Kamala or Newsom would have a better chance than a debate-dodging Biden. I think they aren't that smart, they kind of panicked about him being down in some polls, and because they're so biased and invested in him, they couldn't objectively assess him in the debate rehearsals. I bet he did better than average in the rehearsals, and assured them he was comfortable and would give the answers that he'd been instructed to, and whenever he stumbled they fed him the line and then he repeated it. And there's a good chance they already had the questions leaked to them from their people at CNN. But then he totally **** the bed. And as someone else said, the debate was kind of late in the day, and geriatrics can lose like 20 IQ points from when they wake up to when they go to bed, and there's a good chance they didn't account for that in the debate prep and held all the rehearsals at 10:00 a.m.

was going to double down on biden win nom but instead got in on biden not voluntarily stepping down as pres during 1st term instead

Poly? Thanks for putting up liquidity

you taking opposite side i assume? we could just cut out the middle man and do it between ourselves

crossed my mind but i got a decent amount on the dropout at prime odds , will consider side markets if it pops up though

all the dumb money that is down double digit ROI is on Biden to become pres /stay in the race

to be clear, i was not talking about staying in the race (but i do have money in that), the new position is him stepping down from office before the end of his first term

ah, not completing the term. I see, that one's a bit trickier, was tempting but I stayed in my lane as have got less data to support either case and can't find an edge. Definitely a possibility, but if you have your solid reasons and get paid better than a flip it seems worth it

Feeling like a bit of a moron with how the market has moved against me but I'm still with Swoop here. I wish I got some on Kamala as logically she's the only one it could really be, was talking with a pal a week ago and she was paying $15 for the dem nom, now she's in the $2s (flipped Joe for a while but now a close 2nd). If the president steps down surely the VP is the one to step up, especially when they've already raised loads of money and apparently she would be able to keep it but a new candidate would have to start from scratch.

Time will tell but for my sake stick in there Joe.

Yeah I still think Biden is the nominee despite being 2.80 odd now on Betfair, I did say in one of my early posts ITT that Harris was the best hedge against Biden on the D side in case he died or got terminally ill.

Biden's tweet today

Let me say this as clearly as I can:

I’m the sitting President of the United States.

I’m the nominee of the Democratic party.

I’m staying in the race.

Obviously it's not a good sign that he has to make that tweet, but he's also very clear about it unless something changes I don't think he's getting replaced before the convention. Every day that passes that window shuts a little bit more

Have to laugh at the Newsom backers at 4-5 bucks or whatever he peaked at around that range and the Michelle Obama backers, since if Biden isn't the nominee the Ds are out of time to run proper primaries and overlooking a black woman who is the sitting VP even if she is a garbage candidate would not play well with key segments of the base

Anyway, I honestly think Biden at 2.80 is still the right side by a wide margin. Someone's going to look very stupid in a month's time give or take, whether it's me or half of the other posters in the thread.

Personally I think it’s pretty clear he has some sort of dementia. With that said his debate disaster wasn’t eased at all by a 20 min interview. When a ton of the dems are scrambling still at this moment there has to be some sort of insider knowledge amongst the politicans that everything isn’t rosy. And like any person failing cognitively or physically at that age it’s not going to suddenly get drastically better. It only gets worse and often rapidly.

Biden would potentially be fine if he could be out left and right campaigning and interviews weekly, but they’ve already admitted he’s only good until 4pm every day. He needs to be trying to erase this blunder every waking hour, but instead has already blundered and called himself the first black VP to serve, said he’ll beat Trump again in 2020. He can’t be hidden this time like 2020 during covid and I don’t imagine his decline will get any better if not worse before November as he needs to erase this from independents memories.

is anybody actually betting here? lookign to get 5-25k on trump

you need to be more specific

Also hard when the entire party is either "concerned" or "calling for him to drop out"

https://docs.google.com/document/d/11AxF...

It's going to be fun when you are wrong.

feel really dumb now not unloading at biden nom earlier

Well we have 2 different takes for sure. One is “good luck at a convicted felon winning (even though it’s utter bs). The other is “good luck at the lowest approval rated president in history that most think already has dementia and would be scary 4 years from now with the lowest black support since the 60s on his side while Trump has unmatched street cred on his side.” Street cred 2024 will decide this race. Edge to Trump.

I meant wrong re Biden wins Nom it's too early to know who wins the general although my gut instinct is trump loses we are a long long way away from having the data to support either guy winning yet biden has poor polling but is running against a guy whose ceiling is sub 50 percent approval too who he already beat once.

Joey B into -167 from +180 last cpl days D Nom seems like the conspiratards who are always wrong at betting things are gonna lose again. What is the Russian telegram channel gonna tell you next that is also wrong?

Swoop wtf dude? I’m just a regular dude of the USA. I don’t follow Russian news and venture that nobody else here on the side opposite of you does either.

Biden beat Trump 100% based on covid and hiding in his basement. He wasn’t winning without that. His dementia will not improve, and after that debate he can’t hide but really has no choice but to go out and display his decline. If he gets elected I’d be shocked with black support for him being at an all-time low for a Dem candidate.

I agree with this.
Biden is dropping out. They are negotiating now and need to figure out the best path forward and how to do it. Kamala + X, X + Kamala, or X+Y? Biden probably wants some sort of exit package too. Portraying strength now, until they come up with a plan and go forward in force.

And I agree that Biden has a better chance of winning than Kamala does.

They are likely waiting until Trump announces VP so they can strategize and put together the best team to combat that.

Good point about waiting for Trump to announce his VP.

Yup. Exit package making the most complete sense here. Funding + media weighing out a bigger factor than a letter the old man didn't even write.

FWIW, Polymarket Arizona dems offering 3.5-1 for the Maricopa Cty skeletons buried in the desert to make a comeback in numbers and get them the state once again

can you translate that into english please?