2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.
But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.
Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.
What do we like and not like?
Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.
Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.
I’ll be satisfied with an ev advance rate.
I’ll be upset with anything sub 12%. I’ll be happy to thrilled with anything 20%+.
Fast puppy. slot 4
I didn't need a third QB but Bo fell to my last pick and he fit in nicely with a week 17 game stack.
I'll need some luck with my RBs.
QB) Kyler, Tua, Bo
RB) Moss, Pollard, Corum, Chandler, E Mitchel, B Allen
WR) Chase, Waddle, Nabers, Kirk, BTJ, D Robinson, T Franklin
TE) Mcbride, Muth
3 in a row with the #1 pick.
One little problem. This is not the first time he's had issues behind the wheel.
From the 11 spot. The good ole 3-6-6-3.
Tua (9.11), Love (12.02), CJ (17.11)
Mattison (6.02), Swift (7.11), Conner (8.02), Mostert (13.11), Chuba (16.02), Kyren (18.02)
ARSB (1.11), CD (2.02), Amari (3.11), Watson (4.02), Pickens (5.11), Reed (15.11)
Muth (10.02), LaPorta (11.11), Juwan (14.02)
Did another little exercise. This time comparing the actual draft position with the ADP.
1. He only reached more than 5+ spots ahead a total of 3 times.
2. All 3 times were in rounds 12 or later.
3. He got insanely good value on Mostert
Fired up my first 4 best balls of the year… got the 1.12 twice, bleh lol
Unlucky haha.
My latest 12 spot combo was London/Nico.
The DK interface sucks so bad. But yeah, BBM is akin to a lottery where you feel like you slightly have some control. DK is too, and while you feel like you're taking money in your own respective room, think of all of the other rooms where sharper players are doing the same.
With that said, last year's winning roster had some big hits and some bumps. It even had one QB with no team correlation and one QB with only RB correlation, neithe
I have yet to go with only 6 WR's. I could see doing it if I went 6 straight to start. With an often injured Watson and a 15th round rookie on board he got lucky here.
Having 15 live players is key.
He nailed the late QB's. Drake Maye has a lot of similarities to Stroud from last year. High pick, low team expectations, Young unproven receivers, new coach, going very late in drafts.
Obviously nailing Kyren was key. Interestingly Puka probably wasn't a big thing on UD since he was mostly going in rounds 19 and 20 in Draft Kings.
He hit the nut first two picks. I hate picking late this year but I could see Gibbs being a guy you need.
His QB's stayed healthy. I had several teams that were in it to advance but had no healthy QB's. Even if I have two solid QB's I'm gonna try to grab a 17th or 18th round guy when it makes sense.
It seems like such a gross spot this year. It's like you're getting the leftovers in rounds 1-5 unless you reach a bit on TE or QB. When you are picking from the extremes you sometimes have to reach to get your guy. I just grab Gibbs and randomize the WR I pair him with. If Montgomery were to miss time Gibbs could be a monster. Even if he doesn't he'll be good. In moderation I will get a little out of line from this spot.
For some weird reason I never get picks 5 or 6.
Loving the way these fast puppies are going, feels way softer than bbm
Qb - Lamar, Tlaw
Rb - Monty, Swift, Moss, Benson, R Davis, Bigsby
Wr - Chase, Nico, DK, Btjr, Gabe, Franklin, Tez Walker, Boyd
Te - Andrews, Musgrave
I think that's where he got a bit lucky.
He drafted ARSB a spot ahead of ADP and then Lamb fell 3 spots.
Could've gone very differently if someone else grabbed Lamb.
Winning these things is like winning a poker tournament. You have to get lucky, avoid bad luck and make less mistakes than your opponents.
These are both DK fwiw
1 of these was a $20 SnG -- went Wilson + Taylor which feels like the best I could hope for.
The other 1.12 is in the 15 milly -- Wilson already gone so went with LaPorta + Gibbs to spice it up. Obv I'm planning to hammer WR in the next stanzas
A couple of my favorite late round guy's...K Vidal and J Baker fell to me. I ended up reaching for Goedert to complete the stack. Maybe I could have let that go already having Smith. I know that having your QB's play against each other in week 17 isn't ideal.
QB) Hurts, Prescott
RB) Montgomery, Elliot, C Brown, Dowdle, Vidal, Herbert
WR) CD, Deebo, D Smith, Hopkins, Mooney, D Robinson, J Baker, Tolbert
TE) Andrews, Goedert
These are both DK fwiw
1 of these was a $20 SnG -- went Wilson + Taylor which feels like the best I could hope for.
The other 1.12 is in the 15 milly -- Wilson already gone so went with LaPorta + Gibbs to spice it up. Obv I'm planning to hammer WR in the next stanzas
The problem with pulling LaPorta up to 13, especially in a contest like the Milly, is that his ADP is 32. Thus, there will be teams with Gibbs at 1.12/rando 2nd round player that'll be better than your third round pick/LaPorta.
When getting different at the 1.12, especially if it's with Gibbs or MHJ, you generally want to pull up a guy in the ADP range of something like 17-28. Guys that are rarely going at the 1/2 turn and guys that basically never fall to the 3/4 turn.
My London/Nico combo at 1.12 is a current ADP of 14.7 for London and 17.4 for Nico on UD. I'm certainly not the only one drafting his combo, but it should be less likely than the Gibbs/MHJ, MHJ/London, etc. chalk.
Some people like the Olave/Adams w17 correlation pick. Olave's ADP is 17.0 and Adams's ADP is 19.5. It'll probably be a little more chalky, purely for the w17 correlation aspect, but it's still going to be relatively uncommon as most drafters simply have trouble taking guys they view as inferior over the other guys available.
Another w17 thing people do is Gibbs/Aiyuk. I like to do Gibbs/Deebo, since I think that'll be less chalky than Gibbs/Aiyuk, due to Deebo having a lower ADP.
Finally got a Mahomes double
Qb - Mahomes, Baker
Rb - Warren, Moss, Benson, Zeke, Chandler, CEH
Wr - Reek, Nico, Evans, Worthy, Addison, Gabe, McMillan, Dortch
Te - Kelce, Otton
These are both DK fwiw
1 of these was a $20 SnG -- went Wilson + Taylor which feels like the best I could hope for.
The other 1.12 is in the 15 milly -- Wilson already gone so went with LaPorta + Gibbs to spice it up. Obv I'm planning to hammer WR in the next stanzas
Wilson/Taylor is an excellent start. Both of these guy's have the ability to end up number one at their positions.
Where does LaPorta normally go on DK. You can get him as late as early 4th on UD. I love the combo but I don't know how spicey it actually is depending on ADP.
The problem with pulling LaPorta up to 13, especially in a contest like the Milly, is that his ADP is 32. Thus, there will be teams with Gibbs at 1.12/rando 2nd round player that'll be better than your third round pick/LaPorta.
When getting different at the 1.12, especially if it's with Gibbs or MHJ, you generally want to pull up a guy in the ADP range of something like 17-28. Guys that are rarely going at the 1/2 turn and guys that basi
Yeah exactly
Also, the reason this works this year and probably didn’t in other years is that rd 2/early 3 is very flat.
It works bc it’s unique AND you’re not giving up much projection
If the difference between say London and Waddle was a tier+ you couldn’t do it
A couple of my favorite late round guy's...K Vidal and J Baker fell to me. I ended up reaching for Goedert to complete the stack. Maybe I could have let that go already having Smith. I know that having your QB's play against each other in week 17 isn't ideal.
QB) Hurts, Prescott
RB) Montgomery, Elliot, C Brown, Dowdle, Vidal, Herbert
WR) CD, Deebo, D Smith, Hopkins, Mooney, D Robinson, J Baker, Tolbert
TE) Andrews, Goedert
Overall, it's a nice squad. Hurts/Dak are two QBs that having in the same w17 contest is pretty reasonable, since they both have QB1 upside.
Generally, I'll only pull Goedert up on a Hurts team if I took Hurts without AJB/Devonta or if Goedert is my first TE. Other than that, I'll push him and hope he falls back to me in the 10th. With that said, I have 11% Goedert and 75% of those teams he's stacked with Hurts. The other 25% are when he falls into the 11th.
An example of bad reaches
Yeah exactly
Also, the reason this works this year and probably didn’t in other years is that rd 2/early 3 is very flat.
It works bc it’s unique AND you’re not giving up much projection
If the difference between say London and Waddle was a tier+ you couldn’t do it
For sure. Thanks for adding in those tier/projection notes, as that is also a big part of it.
Everyone has a different tier break, but it's reasonable to argue that this WR tier starts in the early 2nd and goes all the way to the early 4th. Especially specific to the best ball format.
Using UD current ADP, I think my tiers probably run something like MHJ through Kupp. Then DJM through Kirk. But I definitely have some guys I'll be heavier on like Nabers, Kupp, and Tank.
Overall, it's a nice squad. Hurts/Dak are two QBs that having in the same w17 contest is pretty reasonable, since they both have QB1 upside.
Generally, I'll only pull Goedert up on a Hurts team if I took Hurts without AJB/Devonta or if Goedert is my first TE. Other than that, I'll push him and hope he falls back to me in the 10th. With that said, I have 11% Goedert and 75% of those teams he's stacked with Hurts. The other 25% are when
OK, I'll admit it, I forgot I had Smith. I should have pushed him another round.
