2024 Fantasy Football Thread

It makes sense if you are over weight on CMC and under weight on CD/Dak.

CD > CMC regardless of your approach

I'm willing to listen to the CD > CMC argument in full PPR, especially with bonuses. But I still wouldn't want to completely fade CMC.

I think it's bad process to fade CMC in favor of CD on UD. I want to be even with the field on both.

I'm a big CD fan and think Dallas has no choice but to build their offense around him. But let's not forget, he struggled the first 6 games of last season. Then they came out of the bye week and seemed to make a change.

Weeks 1-6 pre-bye = 12.1/gm .5 PPR

Weeks 8-17 post-bye = 21.3/gm .5 PPR. He also put up 29 in week 18.

Also, I've made this argument before, and we all agree that singularly RBs are more fragile than WRs due to additional injury risks. But WRs can be fragile due to their own injury risk plus QB injury risk. We could have another Ja'Marr Chase situation from last season going from Burrow to Browning if Dak goes down. It's either Trey Lance or Cooper Rush.

If Purdy goes down, CMC will still be the guy, and probably even more so.

Fair, if you’re over 8% on cmc and way under on cd it’s reasonable to start taking cd at 1 to balance it out for a bit

The level of confidence you have to have to create a situation where you end up with essentially 2% cmc is way higher than I think is possible

Assuming you’re drafting a lot of teams, if you’re drafting like sub 50, then I’m completely onboard with taking extreme stands based on who you like

If you take CD over CMC I think it would make sense to take E Mitchell as much as possible.

After seeing this, makes me want to come off my Adams fade a little. It’s not a big fade, as I’ll still be 4-6%, but I’ve been heavier on all of the guys around him.

That would definitely provide some leverage. But that also still assumes that E Mitchell is both the guy and can handle the workload necessary to be relevant. I know reports are still that he's the #2, but what does that really mean? Especially with the 49ers drafting RBs every single year. I have a tough time clicking Mitchell either way, with his injury history. I think I have around 4%.

I've been chasing other guys in that range who I don't think necessarily need an injury to be relevant, like Khalil and Tracy, who both I'm overweight on. It's the same reason I have trouble clicking Braelon. We all assume he's the #2, which I still think is still an assumption, even more so than Mitchell. Plus, he's a 4th round rookie. But even if he is the #2, Breece has to get injured for it to even matter.

Granted, I do have quite a bit of Allgeier and the thesis is the same at a higher price, since I expect Bijan to be a 75%+ snap share guy. But at least we've seen Allgeier do it over a full season. And there is no one behind Allgeier.

Seems fine across 80 lineups. It's the people with a hard 0% that I don't understand, especially when drafting 100s of teams.

Confidence helps, but there is so much chaos and variance in fantasy, especially in a single week slate, that confidence, and even being right over the course of the season, can only take you so far. Week 17 is all that ultimately matters.

Fast puppy. pick 12. I had to reach in this draft to put together a team that made sense. What do you guy's do in this situation. I have Gibbs, Laporta and Jameson. I'm at pick 109 and Goffs ADP is 127. Do you reach or do you gamble and hope he makes it back. The ARSB drafter has AR but could take Goff. I reached because it would make me sick to screw up a nice week 17 game stack.

I took Herbert over McMillan/Otten. I feared missing out on a decent 5th RB coming back. He correlates with the Lions week 16. I use week 16 as more of a tie breaker than trying hard to make it happen. McMillan/Otten would have added to the Baker stack. Baker is a guy I'd like to stack with a couple dudes. I didn't think I needed 3 TE's.

It's a boring QB room. If J Williams has a break out Goff could have a career year.

QB) Goff, Baker, Maye

RB) Gibbs, Warren, Spears, Lloyd, Herbert

WR) Deebo, Tank, Godwin, Rice, J Williams, Douglas, D Walker, K Raymond

TE) La Porta, Muth

I think it's a good team, and I think reaching on Goff there is fine, especially as your first QB.

Last year I seem to remember reading data that it's still positive ev to lock in QB stacks in those kinds of spot, even if you have to reach to do it. A round and a half is a big reach, but the projections of the RBs/WRs in the late 10th isn't going to be that much different than the late 11th/early 12th. Plus, you already had a solid grouping of RBs/WRs + LaPorta. And outside of the ARSB drafter, there is simply risk that other drafters will take Goff unstacked.

Herbert over Jalen and Cade with that RB room looks correct to me.

Overall, it's a solid team. One thing I might have done differently is Bourne/Osborn over Raymond in the 18th to give you a double stack for Maye since you already had 3 guys with Goff.

We know Allgeier is a good RB. His stand alone value should be down this year but his contingency value should be up.

There are a lot of RB's we are drafting that could end up being zeros. This is the time to be listening carefully to what is happening in camp and pounce.

I'm overweight on Khalil as well. We know he is solid. We know Swift tends to miss time. This should be a very good offense.

I Think you're right regarding Raymond. If Jameson smashes Raymond probably doesn't do much.

Something that has made me better at Fantasy is having humility and being open to being wrong. It's scary how confident I am in some of my takes yet I know I'm gonna be wrong a lot. In the past I complete faded some players. Now I try to look for the possibilities in them and sprinkle them in when it makes sense.

That being said I know I'm right on Ekeler this year.

I'm at 1.4% on UD. He's been a complete blind spot for me. I do want to get a little bit of him. I think the fade makes sense. They want to run a lot. Adding Bowers should take away some targets. They probably won't be scoring a ton of TD's. The QB's aren't great. That being said, I don't think fading a great player is smart either. I'll probably force him in if I have too.

I have a ton of Adams and it scares me but I like him better than most guys in round 2.

Definitely. And even when you're right, injuries happen. Tank Dell was a smash last year, but it didn't matter when the money was up for grabs. Andrews was having a strong season, but it didn't matter when the money was up for grabs. Throw Chubb and Burrow and all the other injuries in that bucket.

My strategy from the start of this year's draft season has been relatively flat exposure volume. My highest exposure player right now is BTJ at 18%. The less volume you have, the more exploitative you want to be, but that just pumps the variance.

Now, volume drafting is tough for some mainly because of bankroll or time constraints, so you have to do what you have to do. But 18% of BTJ on 100 teams is only 18 BTJ teams. So maybe if you really like BTJ and can only draft 100 teams, you pump that to 25 to 30 to 35% and so on. While 18% of BTJ teams on 500 teams is 90 BTJ teams, basically matching the total teams drafted of the drafter who can only do 100.

I don't think there is anyone in the player pool I'm at 0% on until round 18 ADPs.

With that said, that's where smart building, team correlation, week 17 correlation, etc. gives you the edge as it should ideally add up over time if you're mostly doing it in a plus ev way through volume.

One thing I do struggle with and am not sure how to conceptualize is the impact of exposure on your other teams. I.e., if I have 18% of BTJ, well, that means 82% of my drafts I don't have him at all and will be playing against him. I'm really not sure if there is a way to quantify this.

Another thing I struggle with quantifying is the randomness of player scores with regard to starting lineup overlap. Sometimes you're going to have weeks where more players on your team have good to great scores without enough available starting spots. If my WR8 scores 15, but I already have enough guys who scored better than 15 to fill my starting lineup, I just lose those points. That WR8 is a zero for that week, regardless.

Sometimes you're going to have weeks where everyone duds.

But at the end of the day, I think it's just part of the variance.

With that said, this phenomenon really irritates me sometimes when people try to equate best ball ADP to season long median projections. Blah blah in the 4th round is a terrible pick compared to blah blah in the 6th round because of what we project their season long output to be!

But how do they get there? Do they average 15 points per game by going 0, 30, 0, 30, 0, 30 as their weekly scores or do they consistently score 13-17 per week for the 15 average? That's an extreme example, but I think the idea lands. And in that example. I'd rather have the guy scoring 0, 30, 0, 30, etc., since ideally I should have others filling in for the 0 weeks.

Just because someone may end up being the WR20 in overall average at the end of the season doesn't necessarily mean they should have been the WR20 in best ball ADP.

I think about these things a lot, and I don't even know if I'm articulating it well. But I think a lot drafters really struggle with the math and probabilistic outputs of the teams we are building, myself included.

Yeah, when it boils down to it, Davante Adams has been an elite player with elite upside for a long time now and still was playing well at the end of last season. There are definitely some variables that make you worry at his cost, like moon outlined. I'll also add the Raiders likely being out of the playoff race by week 17 also gives me pause. But Adams is one of a relatively small group that has the ability to consistently give you a top 5-10 weekly projection at the position.

I’m at like 12-13% Adams. One of my favorite picks in the 2nd

Made my first (and likely only) Hero WR lineup just to see what the build would look like. Unfortunately I got sniped on Hollywood, Rice, and Worthy.

QB - Mahomes, Watson, Bryce

RB - Achane, ETN, White, Kamara, Chub, CEH,

WR - AJB, Diontae, Doubs, Jeudy, Downs, Franklin, OBJ, Watson

TE - Njoku, Muth, Parham

OK! I'm now up to 2.5% Davante Adams

I drafted Thielen for the first time. I think Jacoby Meyers is the only player I have zero shares of.

J Sanders as my backup TE is gross but correlates.

I recently drafted a Caleb/DJ/Allen stack. Now we're doing a Caleb/Allen/Odunze stack.

Bryce correlates with Brees name wise.

Fast puppy. Pick 9

QB) Caleb, Geno, Bryce

RB) Breece, Brooks, Robinson, Zeke, C Brown

WR) Adams, Metcalf, Allen, Odunze, Coleman, Burton, Thielen, Mims

TE) Kelce, J Sanders

@newguy, I’ve stopped taking Mahomes if I don’t think it’s a guarantee one of his pass catchers will come back to me. Hero WR definitely doesn’t feel very good haha. Might have added one more WR instead of CEH, but I guess you wanted to lock in some Mahomes correlation. RB looks fun though.

@mong, that’s a fun team. Sanders could surprise. Meyers is one of my lowest exposures, so I’m with you there. I’m pretty low on Theilen too. I’m at like 15% Legette.

Thing about Mahomes on DK is if you get him in the 4th, then Hollywood, Rice, and Worthy should all be available.

I def like Thielen over Legette. I think there’s also some chance Thielen has a better season than Dionte .

Thielen vs Legette is very team specific to me. If you need production in early weeks bc you have Rice or a lot of rookies or you’re kinda weak at wr, I think Thielen makes a lot of sense.

If you’re already solid at wr I much prefer legettes upside