2024 Fantasy Football Thread

150s lmao. Speculative beat reports just hit differently.

Nice squad.

Through 220 drafts on UD, here are my exposures (feel free to roast me haha)

Good diversity. Of the QBs selected in the 1st round, I'm still not entirely convinced that JJ or Maye will start this season.

Completely possible. Think Maye is more likely to start earlyish. One thought I’ve had lately is that if Addison gets suspended, JJ may be more likely to start bc Darnold is likely to look bad early with the terrible wr room behind Jefferson. Not sure if that’s too fps (I had a lot of JJM regardless though before the Addison news bc I have 12% of Addison and Jefferson, had way more Addison before dui)

QBs - Seems good, but I'd probably back off of McCarthy, especially with the Addison situation. You can argue one angle that he may start earlier if Darnold is looking that bad. The other angle is that if McCarthy is starting because the team is that bad, he really only has Jefferson to throw to. I don't really see a ton of QB scoring upside, even if Jefferson is crushing on like a 35% target share.

I'd add on some more Carr instead, especially since you're drafting Olave pretty heavily.

RBs - Javonte, Swift, and Braelon at the top would make me nervous. No need to discuss Javonte again. Swift seems very fragile, even at his price. Especially on a .5 PPR platform. Braelon, we still don't even know if he's the #2, and even if he is and Breece gets injured, what does that even really look like?

WRs - I'm into all these dudes except Godwin, Corley, and Mims.

TEs - I like these. Not into Njoku or Ferguson? I'm guessing you're generally just taking one of the earlier guys then pushing your TE2/3 to later rounds.

Qb - yeah I’ve been drafting a lot more Carr lately. I like him a lot, just haven’t gotten enough yet

Rb - Braelon is a product of me having very little Breece (3%) bc I like Puka and Ajb better. He’s the only first rd player I’m intentionally underweight on, which is scary, so more of a leverage play on Braelon.

Javonte and Swift were both at high 20s so I have been consciously backing off in favor of the guys around them. I am still over market on both in my thoughts about them, even with the risks though , but agree they are fragile

Wr- my biggest ownership concerns are actually Tez at wr haha and maybe Franklin, why don’t you like Mims/Corley

Te - I think both are fine, prefer Njoku at cost bc I think Ferguson is more situation than talent. I’m almost a full fade structurally though bc I take so much top 7 te and prefer both Engram and bowers to those guys that it’s hard to get my ownership up on them

Fair leverage play of Braelon on Breece, but yeah, 3% Breece would scare me too haha. I haven't been in the camp of AJB/Puka > Breece or Bijan, but I know quite a few people feel that way, especially for structural purposes.

My first round exposures are pretty flat. I range between 6%-10% on all 12 first round ADPs. Gibbs is my lowest at 6%. I'm at 10% on Chase, JJ, and ARSB, mainly from drafters taking Bijan or Breece above them in certain rooms. Some of it is probably pick variance too.

I think being heavy on Tez and Franklin isn't a huge deal, since they're so cheap. But yeah, if there are other guys in those ranges you want to increase exposure on, then backing off seems fair.

Mims - Guys who have that bad of a rookie season generally don't end up being good players. I also feel like Payton hasn't really ever talked that positive about the guy other than, we need to get him more involved, then Mims didn't get more involved. Then he said something along the lines of, we traded Jeudy to get Mims more involved. And then they drafted Franklin and brought in Reynolds.

Corley - Rodgers doesn't have a great history with supporting rookies, plus Corley was mainly a manufactured YAC guy in college. Those guys generally don't translate that well to the NFL, but it could also give him a few spike weeks if he breaks off a screen for 50 yards and a TD. That said, we are relying on Hackett to figure out how to use him correctly. I also think this offense is going to be pretty run heavy and play slow.

Makes sense on TE. Ferguson definitely concerns me, since his talent is questionable. But that situation seems so pure, especially with how much Dak loves throwing to the TE. I'm at 10%.

There's some pretty good WRs that had similarly bad rookie years.

TO
Carter
Bruce
Davante

Carter and Davante didn't have their first 1,000 season until years 7 and 5.

I wouldn't put emphasis on a bad rookie season. The rest of the stuff could be valid though.

The problem is that there is plenty of data supporting that bad rookie seasons by WRs, especially those drafted on days 1 and 2, is way more likely to translate to a bad career than not. Especially rookie seasons as bad as Mims. I think the rookie season production should be one of the primary factors when deciding to bet on a year 2 WR, especially for those who didn't suffer from injury. Another troubling sign is that his best weeks, granted on big plays and not high snap shares, were 2 and 3 and then he just faded from there. 50% of his rookie fantasy points were scored in these two weeks.

For every TO, Carter, Bruce, and Davante, there are 5-10 guys who never recover. Three of these guys also played in a different era.

Bruce is wild though haha. Pretty crazy what he did in his second season.

1 thing on Mims is that he did flash pretty wild upside early in the year. His final metrics ended up being bad so early might be just variance, but it’s at least good that he flashed

Also, the Payton Jeudy comments are at least moderately reassuring

I draft a lot of Nix and don’t draft any Sutton, so just want to take shots on both Franklin and Mims just in case one of them (or both) are good.

Mims could very easily suck though, fully agree on that

At least with Mims, all it takes is one play.

Another thing that could be frustrating about the Broncos is Payton likes to rotate WRs. So we could legit see Sutton, Franklin, Mims, Reynolds, and Patrick rotating snaps.

And then the guys who were getting snaps over Mims in Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson are also still on the roster and could potentially be a thorn.

I had Mims last year in all formats of fantasy as a high upside stash and I was livid watching Lil’Jordan play over him haha

Haha, it's never a good sign when someone like Lil'Jordan is playing over a 2nd round rookie in a weak WR room.

I think Mims was drafted just as much for his kick return skills as he was for his WR skills, which I don't think the fantasy community gives enough credit to sometimes. We see 2nd round capital, Broncos traded up, first pick of the Sean Payton era, etc. and immediately translate that to this guy has a lot of fantasy upside. Not all irl draft picks are created equally.

With that said, Mims had a decent prospect profile. He had solid production at a high profile school, strong YPPR numbers, was an early declare, etc.

I think my fade comes from not trusting Sean Payton, who just does whatever the **** he wants, more than anything.

Payton has been quoted as saying he "Loves the size of his WR room". Mims seems to be the odd man out. I think Payton likes Mims more on special teams and doesn't want to over use him. He had plenty of opportunities to get him more snaps but he didn't. Don't over look Josh Reynolds. He's a solid player. I'm gonna gradually start snagging him in the 18th with Nix stacks. Dan Campbell loved him. It seems they only moved on from him because they like what they see in Jamo. This is according to "Coach speak".

Rodgers has always played super slow. Their defense should be great. I can see a lot of 21 to 17 type games this year. I love Breece this year. I love him more in PPR. Unfortunately for him Rodgers likes to pass at the goal line. The Breece/Bijan debate is too close on UD to take a stand I think. I would take Breece over Bijan on DK. Either one of these guy's could be RB1 this year. I'm a little concerned about the week 17 Jets/Bills game. It could be a cold/snowy sludgy game.

Fast puppy pick 1

Barkley falling to the end of the second was decent value and I'm very low on his ownership so I gave RB/RB a shot.

I'm hoping one of Hockenson or Juwan will be healthy by week ten.

I have little Mahomes as well. This lead to me taking Hollywood but I don't love him. There is a tier drop around the 4/5 for WRs so I decided to get an elite QB.

With the last pick in the draft I had the choice of Nix, J Baker and CEH. I went with Nix because it was great vale/stacked with Franklin. Given round 18 picks rarely pan out I thought getting a guy who will be scoring points made sense. I love taking Baker late but he could easily be a zero. I felt good enough with my WR's to go with just 7 but an 8th would have been nice. CEH would have fit into the Mahomes stack but I had 5 RBs already with two studs at the top. All of these guy's correlated in some way. Who would you have chosen?

QB) Mahomes, Carr, Nix

RB) CMC, Barkley, C Brown, K Miller, A Gibson.

WR) Metcalf, Hollywood, Ladd, BTJ, Shaheed, Wicks, Franklin

TE) Bowers, Hock, Juwan

Nix certainly has a higher floor than the other round 18 picks, but Mahomes himself also has a very high floor. He only has 3 single digit scoring fantasy games in his entire career where he played the majority of the snaps. If he gets injured, Nix could certainly help. But when I have Mahomes specifically, I try my best to 2 QB build him given his weekly floor.

I think I probably add CEH. While you have CMC/Barkley, the other 3 have a **** ton of variance. With that said, the draft capital invested in CMC/Barkley implies they should be in your lineup every single week, so you also want to lean into that.

WR room is also a little light too, so I could be swayed on Baker or another available receiver, given the coverage of CMC/Barkley. I wouldn't have minded a dusty vet who is projected to run routes since you have 3 rookies + Wicks.

Overall, it's a solid team.

My goal for the rest of draft season is going to be to draft at least one Chief skill player every single draft.

There is a lot of variance in how the WRs are drafted too. Sometimes, I see all 3 WRs gone by the mid 5th. Sometimes, all 3 WRs are still there at the start of the 6th. It's strange. Hollywood has been falling the past few days.

I’m right about 10% on all 3 chiefs WRs, wouldn’t mind getting a bit higher on them. One of them is gonna run the Mvs tree probably which is scary to me, so I’m kinda indifferent on which one I get

Rice is probably my favorite of the group just bc he’s the cheapest and almost for sure not the Mvs guy

Bateman getting praise from Harbough

Have 8%, which already feels gross. Do I need to get more?

Regarding your Puppy

What are your thoughts on taking Dak without having Lamb? On one hand I think Dak is great pick where he is going in drafts. On the other hand taking him without Lamb seems like you'll be at a disadvantage to other Dak owners. I suppose if Dak went down you may have some leverage on them but he wouldn't be nearly as good. I have very little Dak and would like more but I'm not sure taking him without Lamb is the wise thing to do.

It looks like you got Addison at a nice discount.

I try to get a slightly better TE option with Kittle. He's gonna give you several duds this year.

I like going 7 RB's here given you are strong at WR and it's a little murky after Najee. Zeek and Chase should be ok but there are still questions about how they will be used.

Forgive me for the gang of pictures just wanted to put up my exposure I know I know it’s horrible lol

Week 16 looks like a lot of low scoring games. Three games that should be shoot outs are Texans/Chiefs, Lions/Bears, Niners/Dolphins. Stacking from these games could be a way of getting different when picking from the 12 or a solid tie breaker when deciding on a pick. I say this with the focus still being on week 17.

There are several games that have sneaky shootout potential but the above seem to be by far the best.

DraftKings ruined my number one pick taking malik nabers over CMC so I let them auto draft the rest and they took walker once smh

Side note DK gave me a free lineup where I snagged JJ at 9

In the time box contests, I shifted back to just taking the standard Wilson/London/MHJ/Gibbs turn picks due to enough ppl getting cute on the turn that I felt I wasn’t too worried about too many having those combos