2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
I'm coming around to the theory that he only quit because he got way sicker than anyone thought.
I'm coming around to the theory that he only quit because he got way sicker than anyone thought.
I stand behind he never was sick. The mega donors said no more money so here we are. His overall health and testing positive for historically awful approval ratings was his problem. Prayers to him though.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1...
Can't believe I got a warning in Politics for a harmless joke about "street cred" when it's true. One of my buddies that plays in what remains of Molly's game said every black guy he knows said they were all voting Trump once he got convicted with RICO. I say that in the Politics forum and get a warning? It hurts my feelings.
Give credit to Jill Biden for maximizing their exit package. It's over now that the leaks have come out that Clooney called Obama and he didn't dissuade him from writing his op-ed.
We'll get leaks early next week during the RNC and it will be official Thursday or Friday of next week.
Off by two days.
Vivek has good instincts and says he doesn't think Kamala will be the candidate.
If Obama doesn't endorse Kamala by the end of the month then I think we're looking at Michelle Obama. She's the only candidate they can pass over Kamala for.
The much more likely scenario is that it's already been decided its Kamala and Obama doesn't want to be so obvious that he threw Biden under the bus and he will endorse KH in a week or two.
+200 is roughly 33% chance to win. Many say Kamala has no chance to win, but the odds say otherwise - what am I missing?
why is Michelle +2000 when I haven't heard any rumor of her actually wanting to run? (Or is there a rumor and I haven't seen it?
How does the open convention with multiple candidates get possibly going?
+200 is roughly 33% chance to win. Many say Kamala has no chance to win, but the odds say otherwise - what am I missing?
why is Michelle +2000 when I haven't heard any rumor of her actually wanting to run? (Or is there a rumor and I haven't seen it?
How does the open convention with multiple candidates get possibly going?
Because her "wanting to run" and the majority of dialogue revolving around that data point alone doesn't construct the case of her being the candidate by a large degree. It is actually quite small.
There are other data points being considered by smart money to establish a case of why she will run.
The majority who use bad data to make decisions were not able to see at all that Biden would drop out, for example, simply because he announced "he was staying in the race", "Jill doesn't want him out", when in fact it didn't matter what he said, because at the end of the day, smart money knew he was a puppet, and the data points around that hypothesis (of Biden being a puppet) governs what determines the market value of Biden to drop out (Obama/Pelosi statements, where funding money was going, what funders were saying, what the press was doing back in Feb to establish a narrative of his declining mental condition, etc etc etc).
On this note, some of the actual points to consider as to why Michelle would run:
She ranks the best in the DNC cabal at polling favourably against Trump
She's an African/American female and putting her in the big seat means the DEI narrative stays strongly intact which the DNC has been running off of this term
She was building a social base with podcasting, appearing on Oprah, taking pictures of Lake Michigan and making comments about the Convention last year and her social + community profile is very positive
Barrack is moreorless the commander of the DNC and was quite clearly the one in charge of Biden or at least calling the shots while Biden was a stumbling mouthpiece (see senior DNC members circling around Obama to chat while Biden gets ditched and looks lost/clueless after a meeting was held), and Michelle being put in means Barrack continues to run the show
She's a lawyer at the end of the day and can hold compelling speeches and say what needs to be said without sounding like a complete idiot
Media outlets have already made small teases at her being able to beat Trump
On interview she said she would be very concerned about Trump running for pres (even though she told sources directly she wouldn't want to run)
She has showed up at the big US events like the tennis US open and was the respectable figure when Kamala was cackling during 9/11 ceremony (and it was captured on tape)
Her social media profile is becoming more relentless in building a + community image and her last campaign on July 7 was about getting people registered to vote
More than an easy enough case for +2000 when it's arguably fair <+1000 with the aforementioned points
Dems def have a shot at POTUS. All it takes is a mild swing state shift, which is easily possible with 3+ months to go.
Re Michelle O not indicating she wants to run, there is a time and place for everything. If she were a flawed candidate all the bad stuff would come out and hurt her chances. Using a "draft" style strategy a lot of the Rep tactics are thrawted because of less time (even if they considered her nom beforehand they can't put enough resources there). Also it gets Kamala off the hot seat because she followed the script and might even get VP again, which is a perfect ending for her.
The majority who use bad data to make decisions were not able to see at all that Biden would drop out, for example, simply because he announced "he was staying in the race", "Jill doesn't want him out", when in fact it didn't matter what he said, because at the end of the day, smart money knew he was a puppet, and the data points around that hypothesis (of Biden being a puppet) governs what determines the market value of Biden to drop out (
Spot on. One should put no weight on what people are compelled to say. When I hear Biden, his family, or his aides say wtv I ignore it. But when people like Pelosi come out voluntarily and want Biden out, that is significant.
Spot on. One should put no weight on what people are compelled to say. When I hear Biden, his family, or his aides say wtv I ignore it. But when people like Pelosi come out voluntarily and want Biden out, that is significant.
The weighting of those 2 in the party is massively significant to the point their collective messaging trumps anyone else in the DNC. Neither of them have endorsed Kamala. Alex Soros has however.
"Lay Kamala for pres" starting to look more and more like "Lay Desantis for GOP Nominee" in terms of value.
was trying to figure out why no insiders drove the dem nom biden price to 0 in the hours before the announcement
apparently, only 1 person knew about it other than biden (the guy who drafted the statement) and they didn't inform anyone about it until 1 minute before posting to twitter
I haven't seen a bet as good as Biden to drop out once the debate happened. And honestly, once the debate was scheduled in late June. It was obvious they wanted to pressure test him before the DNC.
The entire Democrat machine came out immediately after the debate saying how terrible he sounded. It was obvious they were going to do everything possible to get him to drop out.
It never would have happened without approval from Obama.
On this note, some of the actual points to consider as to why Michelle would run:
She ranks the best in the DNC cabal at polling favourably against Trump
She's an African/American female and putting her in the big seat means the DEI narrative stays strongly intact which the DNC has been running off of this term
She was building a social base with podcasting, appearing on Oprah, taking pictures of Lake Michigan and making comments about the Con
LOL, feel like this all overlooks the fact that, while she's interested in maintaining a socially conscious and positive public image, she genuinely seems to have no interest in running for or being president. Michelle Obama stepping in at this point would be crazier than even the thought of Biden dropping out prior to that debate IMO.
Don't know if I like betting on anyone other thank Kamala to be Dem nominee at this point. The optics of the Dems passing over a black woman for a candidate like Whitmer would lead to so much in-party friction (i.e., alienating much of the black vote, black women in particular) that I don't think they can seriously consider it. I guess this is where the consideration of Michelle Obama comes in but, again, she just plain doesn't seem interested. She'd be the first presidential candidate I've ever seen that's never shown any interest in the position prior LOL...
IMO Michelle O is the backstop if Kamala is not well received.
I heard Pelosi is endorsing Kamala.
IRT to Michelle O not interested, it must be a royal PITA to conduct a campaign. If they gave her a choice of either (A) running an 18 month campaign against Biden et al, or (B) step in 3 months before election after everybody else throws in the towel, she obv chooses B.
Plus you got arguably the smartest politician ever on Michelle O's side, ostensibly at least.
Convention in CHI probably doesn't hurt either.
whitmer and pelosi both endorsing kamala, looks like they are just going to hand trump the election on a silver platter
who in their right mind thinks kamala is an upgrade over even a senile biden?
They obv don't.
A clue on who is really running the show I suppose.
Polymarket has Biden 44c not finishing term.
This seems a bit overpriced for me, but reasonable for hedging purposes (ie more likely to resign if Kamala or other Dem wins general).
Polymarket has Biden 44c not finishing term.
This seems a bit overpriced for me, but reasonable for hedging purposes (ie more likely to resign if Kamala or other Dem wins general).
the way his drop out letter was released and the fact he hasn't been seen in 5 days is fueling speculation that there's something seriously wrong. also reports that on the day he was last seen the SS issued an order to clear roads to get him to a local Vegas hospital, but those plans were then scrapped so they could Medivac him to John Hopkins in MD instead.
in before Swoop commences victory laps
He was supposed to having a meeting with Netanhyanu on Wednesday but they just cancelled it. Where's Biden?
IMO Michelle O is the backstop if Kamala is not well received.
I heard Pelosi is endorsing Kamala.
IRT to Michelle O not interested, it must be a royal PITA to conduct a campaign. If they gave her a choice of either (A) running an 18 month campaign against Biden et al, or (B) step in 3 months before election after everybody else throws in the towel, she obv chooses B.
I'm curious what you would consider fair odds for Michelle if Kamala doesn't get the nomination for one reason or another.
If Kamala drops out (or is pushed out) what do you make the line on Michelle?
I would want to know the reason(s) why Kamala dropped out. If Barack was behind it then I'm guessing Michelle O would be close to fave. Depending on field (Whitmer, Newsom?) I'd put her +100-+150.
Ofc Michelle will be getting some media exposure, how that is covered/received has a lot to do with her odds.
I don't know her implied odds atm assuming Kamala is out, I'm guessing around +200-+300.
