2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
Whitmer or beshear I think.
No endorsement on Kamala from Biden and it's at -400 on bovada, no thanks
To be fair, July was not a lot sooner, I know I know, it means I'm totally off with my Russian Telegram conspiracies.
I'll give you props on being way early on Biden not being the nominee, but I remember you making a few posts predicting (and betting on) Michelle Obama being the nominee & thinking there's no way- I've only ever seen her state that she's not interested.
Whitmer or beshear I think.
No endorsement on Kamala from Biden and it's at -400 on bovada, no thanks
He endorsed Kamala 17 minutes after you made this post.
spoke too soon, the standing order to buy biden at 1c either got filled or taken down, just left with my dick hanging out now
I'll give you props on being way early on Biden not being the nominee, but I remember you making a few posts predicting (and betting on) Michelle Obama being the nominee & thinking there's no way- I've only ever seen her state that she's not interested.
He endorsed Kamala 17 minutes after you made this post.
Yeah, the endorsement isn't a lock though, and I read something about Biden swapping down completely and being able to be swapped out through a legal process in September without a national vote
Kamala will get destroyed so I'm not so sure and I cashed out my poly position ~85c on her as that appears to be at least fair if not -ev
Still made money, and up a decent chunk regardless of who gets in - Michelle will poll the best against Trump I've monitored her socials and projects and the sentiment towards her is definitely positive and it fits into the DNC's DEI narrative perfectly
Should have known the moment Biden caught JOVID it was Joever.
That's political betting for ya. In hindsight everything is so obvious.
Government as the mafia theorem worked out. When Don Pelosi says it's time, it's time.
That said, I cannot take any credit for having any opinion because I never backed my opinion with money. As NajdorfDefense would always point out, unless you're actually in the arena backing your opinions with money at specific prices, it's all meaningless. Might as well be on a podcast or news show. Congrats to those who did and were proven right. And respect to those who were wrong but had the conviction to back it it up.
What a fun election season.
Well that is some crazy **** to start the cycle. Obviously I'll take the loss but could have give a lot worse for than losing a unit.
If Trump wins due to Harris being a horrible nominee the Democratic party did this to themselves
I just hope the Ds don't crown Harris without putting her through a hostile debate but obviously with Biden's endorsement she's a big fav even though she's the worst of the possible candidates
Anyone can beat Trump since he will say and do dumb things but anyone can lose to him too at this point
What a wild ride that market was
So what are the betting plays now for the elections? I see Trump to win presidency at -200 which seems like good value. Or maybe wait until the DNC when the Democtrats will presumably "unify" behind one candidate (highly likely to be Harris) and hope those Trump odds come down even more? I personally don't see a path to Harris winning...
i already bet hilldawg no nomination at 94 cents on predictit so we can now all be assured the DNC is going to announce tomorrow that they're letting her take another crack at it
The chances of Biden dropping out are way way lower than everyone thinks they are. It's probably like 1 percent and most of the time he isn't the nominee is because he dies or gets a terminal diagnosis and both are quite unlikely despite his age. Biden is probably 1% or so to die, 1% or so to get a terminal diagnosis and drop out and 98% to be the nominee because those are the only two ways he won't be.
If anyone wants to lose their money be
There is no way Biden is dropping out as a result of his debate performance even if conventional wisdom is he loses the debate. None. If he was going to drop out it would be before the debate but he's not so whatever
Anyway we don't know who is going to win this far out but anyone who is betting on Biden not being the nominee at this point is burning money
the true price on this should be like -4000 or -5000 or something - it's a conspiracy theory oriented market and betting against the conspiracy theorists will always pay dividends in political markets.
lol the market is truly spastic, really, it thinks Biden drops out a third of the time or whatever? lol
If anyone wants market price on Biden not to be the nominee i'm perfectly happy backing him to be the nominee at market price for those of you who are bad at probability and enjoy making -EV bets feel free to lose the money to me instead of to a book
Biden's still going to be the nominee barring a terminal diagnosis an enormous percentage of the time and the -113 on offer on Betfair is absurdly plus ev
The only way he drops out is terminal health issue, same thing I've been saying all along, and he doesn't have a terminal health issue currently.
Looks like today we're back in max hype cycle for 'Biden's gonna drop out for reals guys today it's coming any second'
lol
+240 back to +140 over the last few hours when Biden didn't drop out as the conspiratards expected
Biden isn't exiting the race unless he dies, has a terminal health issue or his family wants him to and if his family wanted him out the window for that to happen was a week ago.
a retrospective
I meant that he did better than the other analysts who had it 99% Trump, obviously any analyst that got the call wrong did poorly.
In any case, I tried to be a gracious loser on this one and give a legitimate congrats to the people that got it right. I'm out at this point, with the exception of the MMA thread. It seems pretty clear that my contribution of any sort is not wanted through the rest of the forum.
Thanks for everything i've learne
.
So what are the betting plays now for the elections? I see Trump to win presidency at -200 which seems like good value. Or maybe wait until the DNC when the Democtrats will presumably "unify" behind one candidate (highly likely to be Harris) and hope those Trump odds come down even more? I personally don't see a path to Harris winning...
There is absolutely no reason to bet a major party candidate at -200 before the other party's candidate isn't even known. There's no way Trump isn't still available at -2xx worst case at some point post DNC when more info is known.
I agree Harris has a worse chance than any other D pretty much but a) she isn't the nominee yet and b) Trump is live to lose to anyone remember he nearly lost to Hillary Clinton if the popular vote distribution was just very very slightly different, he is a turnout machine for the D base
As a left leaning person myself i'd love to see the Ds nominate almost anyone that isn't Harris but I expect they probably fall in line and nominate Harris
I also think Harris has a worse chance to win than Biden personally but that no D is drawing dead against Trump despite him currently being slightly ahead it isn't an insurmountable lead in the polls this far out.
And yeah to everyone bragging, I thought I was right, turns out I got it wrong, and I lost a unit. I did think the spot was worthy of multiple units but only had a unit on. It's still early in the cycle. 0 for 1, and onto the next.
Who do people like for VP? I wanna get some action down.
For long shots the value is Harris, Carlson, DeSantis at +5500 +42000 and +5500 imo
Firm lays on everyone else in the field other than Trump/Biden and the three above
Just bumping this from my first post ITT for anyone doing their victory lap since I was wrong about Biden not being the nominee as things played out.
Full disclosure don't actually have any Harris +5500, but did go on the record in my first post ITT that she's one of the three best long shot candidates for anyone who wanted one.
For what it's worth the way things have played out I actually think Michelle Obama at the 20-1 range is about accurate as she would be the 'draft' candidate if Harris is polling horrendously and all of the other potential candidates don't run and have fallen in line behind Harris, but her campaign craters before the convention. I did also say that she had no chance of running early in the cycle and still don't think she has any intention to but ironically her price hasn't changed that much from before Biden dropped out and even months ago which is ridiculous, but i'm not in the anti-Michelle camp anymore, think price is about right there now and if I had laid Michelle I would back to exit the position now (I didn't so I don't need to but whatever). Not looking to back it, but would look to exit a lay position I think at this stage if I had trusted the earlier lay reads. All of the other lays like RFK Jr etc are fine he's still 0% to win etc
FWIW I think Michelle O is live.
Not sure if 20:1 is value, sounds about right.
every time i look at this map i think the right move is whitmer
but will they do it is another question
Probably will be Kamala but I got Field at 15c for nominee. We'll see. Small position.
Whitmer would be $$$
switching to whitmer could easily carry MI and WI which would be enough to put dems back in contention
they won't because kamala is heir apparent and us politics is a contrived aristocracy where next in line gets their due even if theyre a terrible a candidate no one likes
believe michelle o would wipe the floor
Truth is stranger than fiction.
I would stick to the long shots here.
Stay out of the politics thread. I admit to troling a bit but holy chit we have some
idiots at 4
I got her at 44:1. Hit a little more following the extreme swing to Kamala yesterday, at 40:1 now avg. Mostly for straight pres but I got nominee also.
Hit this so early my position has never gone underwater even after the huge Kamala swing, though got very close to BE on DNC nominee.
It's their best shot for sure. The sentiment towards her is very good. The african-american communities would have no issue switching back to her from Trump. The female voters would favour her also, I even believe at least a decent chunk of women are skeptical about Kamala because she is so disingenuous and stupid and her sentiment appeal is shocking.
It's a bet I'm frothing about and scared of winning at the same time because if the DNC (in its current state) wins the whole show is cooked.
No statement yet from Biden. Still in his basement while the intern wrote the letter and signed it and put it on Twitter
Biden to finish term - no odds @ better than evens looks pretty juicy imo.
