$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

I already closed, but it was something like this

Wider than GTO calling range

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Way wider than GTO calling range

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For the 3b range I stuck pretty close to GTO Wiz 9max ranges, but took out most of the 0EV hands.

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What appears to have the biggest impact on our decision to bet or check is our actual range. The closer to equilibrium (or wider) that we 3bet, then the more often we'll mix in some checks. If we are 3betting a tighter range, then we'll bet more often. At some point QQ would just be a pure bet.

thanks

There's a pretty important point about overpair density here. When we have a ton of high overpairs life is great lol. You can actually see this in srp spots as well, for example.

@rick - you might take from this general discussion that most live players, even regs, are constructing their cbet and barrel strats in 3bet pots incorrectly without knowing it and likely have been since they started playing.

This is what online players mean when they talk about live skill level being low. Even if you had some tricky xr stuff in your bag vs regs (fair enough), have you ever checked half or more of your overpairs in a 3bet pot otf? Have any of the regs in your game done it?

I would guess 90%+ of the llsnl regs I've played with in the past year have never even considered a "correct" strategy in this spot, because they don't understand that "auto cbet your overpairs in 3bps" isn't theory, and of course cbetting overpairs in real games is gonna feel comfortable, perform well, and be very profitable. They're freaking overpairs in 3bet pots, lol. Stuff can become very easy to gloss over while being extremely exploitable, unsound, and not even ev maximizing.

agree with all of that, but i don't think you ever need to worry about a rando exploiting you at llsnl

those who are capable of that are people you can recognize easily and you can adjust and take a different line

The idea is mainly that while cbetting is certainly easy and profitable, if we think certain things about the check line or turn after check check, we can easily start making exploitative arguments to put strong hands in those lines as well. After all, in equilibrium they are performing equally well, so we don't need much of an exploitative argument to justify taking a line.

Also, while I completely agree with you that most players are not going to be actively exploiting us at llsnl, it's certainly possible we can be getting passively exploited. This means that villains' natural tendencies can exploit our deviations even if they're not consciously exploiting or attacking anything. Imo it's worth putting some thought into this so you can realize when your strategy might be getting countered, even unintentionally.

This is hard to do if we're still at the level where we are betting all our overpairs because we are confident it's always the best.

Yeah it was a good result but the main point was that even hands that play well multiway will be folded preflop vs huge sizing.

Isoing in the SB/BB with just Big pairs and hands like AK/AQ will probably be lower EV than using a a more board coverage strategy like smaller suited connectors. Even players who don't understand bet sizing theory can deduce that low boards won't hit you very often, I said this earlier (and it's in Sklansky's new book) but you need to be more careful when your hand is exactly what your opponent's put you on. You will lose EV when this happens so we want to avoid face up strategies whenever possible.

It seems obvious but you should try to play your hand in the opposite way of how your opponent thinks you will play it, this works better vs players who have a little bit of knowledge over the players who have close to zero knowledge of the game. We want to take advantage of the populations tendencies to put you on either AK or a big pair.

wrt to the QQ example, at 100bb effective you should probably be 3betting there and I would just jam for a few reasons.

1. There's a ton of dead money in the middle

2. Live players open larger than GTO so now you are more incentivized to 3bet instead of call

3. Population will call off lighter because they don't have to worry about postflop

4. One of the callers is likely to be a fish and will call you lighter than he should given #3.

If you somehow were in a scenario where everyone was very deep and the UTG rfi was on the tighter side then I could see just calling but at 100bb or $200 you should just jam here. It will probably outperform a smaller 3bet.

Fish strategy 101.

It might be counter intuitive but fish actually pay more attention to the action on the table compared to regulars.

Why is this?

1. Fish are almost always 1 tabling. That means every hand means more and as a result they pay more attention to the action.

2. Fish play way more hands than regulars so as a result they can't play more tables.

3. Fish don't usually have bankrolls so again every hand means more.

Okay so how do we use this knowledge to our advantage?

You want to prime them by taking actions that they don't normally take, this will stick out in their mind. And because they are likely one tabling, it will be magnified.

Here is an example of 3 hands within the span of a few orbits or so.

#1 Open jamming piques his interest.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($35.45) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 350967]
CO ($42.44) [VPIP: 14.8% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 27]
BTN ($29.75) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 55.6% | Hands: 23]
SB ($28.63) [VPIP: 55.6% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 26.3% | Flop Agg: 25% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: 6♣ 9♦

CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.15, HERO Checks

Hero SPR on Flop: [56.76 effective]
Flop ($0.50): 6♦ 9♠ J♥
SB Checks, HERO Bets $35.20 (allin), SB Folds

#2. Take a hand where you would stack off regardless and use it in an open jam line. Now he might think you are a maniac.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($35.68) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.6% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 350967]
BB ($42.44) [VPIP: 14.8% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 27]
CO ($29.75) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 55.6% | Hands: 23]
BTN ($28.38) [VPIP: 55.6% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 26.3% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: J♠ J♣

CO Folds, BTN Calls $0.25, HERO Raises To $35.68 (allin), BB Folds, BTN Folds

#3. Death blow. Now we have him primed to call off light.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($35.33) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 37.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 350967]
SB ($29.29) [VPIP: 55.6% | PFR: 22.2% | AGG: 26.3% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 20]

Dealt to Hero: J♥ 9♠

SB Calls $0.15, HERO Checks

Hero SPR on Flop: [58.08 effective]
Flop ($0.50): 3♠ 9♦ J♠
HERO Bets $35.08 (allin), SB Calls $29.04 (allin)

Turn ($64.62): 3♠ 9♦ J♠ A♥

River ($64.62): 3♠ 9♦ J♠ A♥ 6♦

I get your point but there is a fair argument you will lose more value just jamming the previous 2 hands in the long run

I'm open to arguments as to why playing them in a more traditional manner is higher EV but just saying generic points like this doesn't generate any meaningful discussion.

It's more subtle than just open jamming, you have to look at your hand and the board texture.

1. You jam because you unblock top pair

2. You jam because JJ is good enough to get in preflop but an overcard will flop over 50% of the time and it's unlikely you get 3 streets. We wouldn't jam AA/KK for example.

3. You jam J9 here because of the FD present, if it was rainbow you don't jam.

You can't definitively prove which is higher EV but my circumstantial proof is the win rate. The majority of a 20bb+ winrate at the microstakes isn't by beating up on bad regs, you get it by exploiting fish.

Looking forward to your reasoning.

For me it seems in the long term you will miss out on ev from the 2bb they call floating the flop with hands we are way ahead of then you also have to factor in missed value when they hit. Now if we develop reads and know we're playing vs someone that can't fold a pair, will limp call jams with 44, ATo ect then yeh I'm all for it but you only have 20 hands on that guy

Also your 2nd point feels very similar to bad regs that just jam hands cause they are afraid of draws completing, which is something you've defiantly argued against previously.

Interesting post DDP. My main problem here is that the line is pretty highly speculative. You might happen to have 3 plausible jam spots here (this is granting a lot, but you might), but it seems to me like you kind of need them in quick succession and even better against the same opponent, which is just generally not happening all that often.

Basically it feels like you're trading away the "standard" ev of your hands in exchange for some speculative future ev that you'll bait some fish into making a massive mistake against you later. Is this accurate? And if so, how do you weigh these to decide when to go for it? Or are you just auto sending good combos in these spots because you're sure it's crushing?

I can understand the concept here and it's interesting, but I would feel uncomfortable trading the ev of some quite strong hands away for some speculative potential future exploit. Interested in your thoughts.

The develop reads is just code for circular logic imo. I keep hearing if we develop reads but it's so obvious it doesn't even need to be stated.

The 2nd point is different because one is preflop and one is postflop.

Also you are talking about a reg vs a reg and I'm talking about a reg vs a fish so it's not the same point at all.

Reg play is more science than art and fish play is more art than science.

I'll give you an example, I was playing 1/2 live a week ago and this guy to my right seemed a bit sticky preflop from a few hands he showed down but I didn't know for sure. I bought it for my usual fishy amount of $100 and had gotten it up to $120 or so. I looked down at AA and thought, even if this guy only calls 10% of the time a jam will be printing. I proceed to open ship preflop.

He calls me with AJdd.

The more unorthodox lines you take the more of an intuition you develop for them, it's the same process with GTO fundamentals. Creativity takes practice and intuition can be trained regardless of what the feel players like to claim.

Now people will say you just said not to jam AA preflop! Yes online. I'm not playing fish online the same as fish live, they are different subsets and only some tendencies overlap.

I would argue the point your making is circular logic. He's a fish so therefore he will call off all his chips with a very wide range in a 2bb pot is literally your thinking

Sometimes a strategy doesn't have to be complex. You want to make a strategy as simple as possible but not simpler.

Anyways, I'm not really trying to convince you, I already laid out 3 coherent reasons for my play and your reasoning was basically but "they will float flop!." (btw you realize fish fold flop more than GTO correct?).

My proof is in my winrate and my winrate comes mostly from how I play vs fish.

Not the point I'm trying to make i was just pointing out your using circular logic in you thinking.

I thought we were having a strategy discussion here? And way to just simplify my point but I'll write it out in better detail then.

My point is that over the long term I feel the small bets + other factors like them improving, getting them to try and bluff, etc we miss out on lots of EV from just jamming and folding out most of their range and will make less in the long term than when we just get to stack them. We also have to take into account them still having decent equity a good portion of them time when they call which is feel makes my argument stronger.

Also man you are the biggest condescending ass i've ever came across on these forums

I thought I was pretty polite, I didn't call you any names so I was definitely more polite than you.

I wanted you to give me real reasons for why you liked the conventional lines better than mine because your float flop reason doesn't hold a lot of weight since they overfold flop.

To me the argument here rests on what constitutes a rec (aka fish) v a reg. A rec according to DDP pays too much attention to the action because they are playing only the one table, have no bankroll and tend to continue with hands regs would generally fold pre and post flop (having no bankroll means recs are nearly always "chasing their losses" and therefore play more hands and try to get more value from them post-flop). In this respect a rec (aka fish) doesn't have a predetermined strategy and is more likely to over-react to an unorthodox line.

In the J96 example, bvb, where DDP jams 96, thinking about how a rec reacts to 2bb bet compared to a reg is kind of interesting. A reg is more likely to float I'd say and call wider than a rec; both are calling with any pair; a reg is more likely to x/r with a draw perhaps than a rec and so on. The most important question is how often will a rec call a 50x shove with a non-nutted combo compared to a reg? Once this this question is addressed, it'll be easier to work out the EV of a 50x versus a 0.70x flop bet. Will a rec call with any Jx? Will a rec call with QT? Will they call with 77-88 etc.? I don't think it's easy to address this question because we don't think about the pros and cons of calling 50x shoves very often. I mean, thinking about calling a 2.5x shove is difficult enough.

This is a well thought out summary of what we should be considering.

We know from MDA that fish are less elastic than regs in most lines (although it's not true in all lines). We also know from MDA that fish overcall donk leads relative to GTO. They are overcalling by around 5% vs a Donk30.

Now I don't know if they overcall relative to 50x pot but we know they are less elastic plus they overcall Donk30 so it's an educated guess that they will overcall vs a jam.

Also once we add in the emotional factor of the fish and the fact that the fish has seen us 50x jam before and is probably only playing one table it seems more likely that they will over react and call down lighter than they should.

It's almost certainly true that by the third or fourth jam we'll way overrealize with value vs a lot of recs. I do think it's a leap to say they overcall vs d30 so they'll overcall vs d5000, but it seems likely they will overcall vs d5000 in a vacuum anyway because theory will fold everything lol.

I'm not sure if this makes donkjam the play the first time, but the argument is pretty coherent and I'm sure this sort of stuff can destroy some recs.

Another spot vs Fish that people probably mess up.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($33.83) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 38% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 351173]
HJ ($7.25) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 8]
CO ($29.64) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 20.8% | AGG: 23.5% | Hands: 24]
BTN ($22.03) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 23.1% | Hands: 24]
SB ($25) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 14]
BB ($21.16) [VPIP: 62.5% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 38.7% | Flop Agg: 30.8% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 57.1% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 53.8% | Hands: 24]

Dealt to Hero: 6♥ 6♦

HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.78 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 8♣ Q♦ J♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $33.08), BB Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $20.41)

Turn ($1.60): 8♣ Q♦ J♣ K♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.14 (Rem. Stack: $31.94), BB Calls $1.14 (Rem. Stack: $19.27)

River ($3.88): 8♣ Q♦ J♣ K♥ 8♥
BB Bets $3.69 (Rem. Stack: $15.58), HERO Calls $3.69 (Rem. Stack: $28.25)

Yes XC-XC-Donk is the strongest donk line but you need to realize board texture>line in this spot. Let's look at MDA for XC30-XC-Donk for BBvsIP for Fish.

Okay it looks like a fold prima facia since D100 is 30 weak and GTO is 33 weak. But let's now go to filters.

Now we see it's 48 weak so it's a clear call. Remember, there is a distinct difference between Flop-->paired turn-->blank river and Flop-->blank turn-->paired river on this flop texture. The latter is weak and the former is strong.

I learned two new spots today. The first in a 3BP OTT vs regs. I think turn play in 3bps is one of the most misplayed streets in poker.

Here is the spot.

HJvsBU3BET

K♥T♥7♠

Flop we can range for 1/3 or even smaller.

Turn is a blank, 3♦

ATs is 100% barrel OTT! I'm pretty sure no one is doing this but I could be wrong.

GTO Wizard:

Spot #2. Non-intuitive flop X back.

HJvsBTN3BET

4♠4♥3♦

88/99 high frequency X back's OTF!

yeah but at least we have genuine discussion now so he's taking baby steps towards real improvement and change

thread is good again now

On the KhTh7s 3bp example, what does your mda data say about population overdefending pps oop vs small cbets, and if it’s true, would you agree we can get even crazier with the turn barreling?