2024 Fantasy Football Thread

2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of January. Through 95 drafts, my exposures are below. The player order is based on current ADP. Some of these ADPs have been quite fluid over the last 3 months, with FAs and rookies moving the most. Most of my exposures are structurally driven, rather than player take driven. Especially at this point in the game, pre-draft.

But there are some players I simply couldn't avoid going heavy on, like McBride and Andrews in the 5th round. I'm actually quite heavy all of the top TEs, minus LaPorta and Kincaid. I also tried to make sure I had at least 1 TE by the end of round 8, with Ferguson being the last of the group.

Also took approaches like attacking Nabers and Odunze harder than MHJ, at their relative prices.

What do we like and not like?






Rookie season is also upon us. Redraft is still 3.5 months away from heating up, but there will be rookie drafts, dynasty startups, and best ball drafts leading up until then.

Good luck to all, and may injuries and variance be kind.

25 April 2024 at 04:46 PM
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3752 Replies

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First bbm in a while, pretty happy w it

Qb - Lamar, Goff

Rb - Najee, Brooks, Brob, Javonte, Herbert

Wr - Arsb, Nico, Diggs, Worthy, Gabe, Bateman, R Wilson, Tez Walker, Raymond

Te - Kelce, Juwan

Almost got Stroud at 91 too which would’ve been interesting. Lamar fell all the way to 54, which to me felt like enough to take him w/o Andrews/flowers


by jimmymcgill8 P

Is this a thing ppl actually do? I have never once even thought to look at madden for fantasy.

Is there any predictive data haha?

I was only able to find the winning roster AND Madden launch ratings from the last 2 years from BBM.

Could be some possible trends. Like just focusing on WR. Neither team selected a WR with a rating < 75 before round 13.

Then last year only rookies or 1st year starters (Love) had launch ratings < 75

High chance it's just noise but I like looking at everything just in case. It certainly wouldn't be my main go to.

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by Dgoat P

Idk why people overreact to wide receivers having a bad rookie year . A lot of receivers are bad rookie year .

by tarheels2222 P

Because there is a relatively strong correlation that a bad rookie season for WRs equals average to bad career. Especially for guys drafted on days 1 and 2.

And Mims’s season was extra bad, with guys who really aren’t even NFL quality players getting snaps over him.

I still think the Broncos view Mims as mostly a kick return guy that can also play WR.

Just read this article
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/st...

He talks about 2nd year WRs.

On the other hand, I did some offseason research in order to determine if it was worthwhile to target post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled as rookies. The answer: It depends on just how much they struggled. The magic number seems to be "90," as in, if a wide receiver did not finish in the top 90 at the position in fantasy points as a rookie, you can all but throw in the towel.


So who does this study suggest we avoid in 2024? Fortunately, it's a much shorter list this season. Jalin Hyatt (98th) and Cedric Tillman (118th) comprise the list of 2023 Day 1-2 receivers who finished their rookie season 90th or worse in fantasy points (though there were a few close calls, including Jonathan Mingo 81st, Tre Tucker 88th and Marvin Mims 89th). History tells us that, while maybe one of these guys makes a leap, it's unlikely, so we shouldn't invest much in them. Instead, we can focus high-pedigree rookies or posthype, second-year players who at least showed some flashes in Year 1. Names that fit that bill include Addison, Reed, Rice, Flowers, Dell, Josh Downs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Wilson and perhaps even Quentin Johnston.

I don't have a ton of Mims, but I have enough that I'm comfortable not taking anymore at this point.


Tried something in bbm that I heard Kerrane talking about (pulling up Mahomes to the early 4th). Kinda like it, but feels weird taking him over hurts and Allen

Qb - Mahomes, Bryce

Rb - Najee, Javonte, C Brown, Dowdle, Vidal, Tracy

Wr - Puka, London, Hollywood, Rice, Jamo, Thielen, R Wilson, Hyatt

Te - Kelce, Muth


by jimmymcgill8 P

Tried something in bbm that I heard Kerrane talking about (pulling up Mahomes to the early 4th). Kinda like it, but feels weird taking him over hurts and Allen

Qb - Mahomes, Bryce

Rb - Najee, Javonte, C Brown, Dowdle, Vidal, Tracy

Wr - Puka, London, Hollywood, Rice, Jamo, Thielen, R Wilson, Hyatt

Te - Kelce, Muth


Love the KC/PIT stack.

Probably would've added another TE over Hyatt though.


I’ve been pulling up Mahomes quite a bit lately. I want KC to be my highest exposed team.

I even got cute with one and it worked out. Took Pickens at 35, Mahomes at 38, then got both Rice and Worthy at 59/62.

He was drafted as the QB1 last year in the mid to late second. I hardly had any, which was mostly about the market price and not necessarily being the first QB. Obviously he didn’t pay off, but I don’t think you’re giving up much, if any, ev taking Mahomes first off the board. Especially at 4th round prices.


I actually wanted to go Kelce/Rice/Worthy, but Hollywood fell so far past ADP I felt obligated even though I like the other 2 more


I’ve noticed Hollywood falling to the late 5th quite often lately.

I’ll still take Hollywood occasionally over Rice/Worthy, but I want to have 2-3x each of Rice/Worthy compared to Hollywood.


by jimmymcgill8 P

Tried something in bbm that I heard Kerrane talking about (pulling up Mahomes to the early 4th). Kinda like it, but feels weird taking him over hurts and Allen

Qb - Mahomes, Bryce

Rb - Najee, Javonte, C Brown, Dowdle, Vidal, Tracy

Wr - Puka, London, Hollywood, Rice, Jamo, Thielen, R Wilson, Hyatt

Te - Kelce, Muth

I did this a couple of times about a month ago and loved both of my teams. I've done it the last 3 times I've had the number 12 pick. The only player that you are reaching for is Mahomes. You're almost guaranteed to get two KC pass catchers plus Kelce. Both Pitt RB's and Muth typically fall in this area for bring backs. Grabbing a star TE and QB at the 12 spot is a way to get back some of the disadvantage of this draft spot. Also, it's not easy getting a stud QB that correlates from this position. I find I either have to reach anyway and sometimes get shut out. I love having an elite QB and TE early and not have to worry about the back up until later. If another stud at those positions falls to a great price we can still take them. If you want to take it to another level take Nico in the second. The Texans and Chiefs play week 16.

As you see this is a very nice team. I have Mahomes over Allen so I feel a little better about this.


Nice post. Have to be a little cognizant of w6 bye when pairing with Puka or Waddle, but it can mostly be mitigated.


When you’re desperate for a late round TE.


8% Theo


Speaking of manufacturing a stack with a stud QB. I tried this twice and was successful once. I took Flowers in the middle third in the hopes of getting Lamar and Andrews. I got Lamar/Flowers both times but Andrews didn't make it back one time. I do this when it's an end of a WR tier in the third. I feel like I'm not giving up much by taking Flowers over DJ, Diggs etc.

Lamar and Maye have the same bye. I would have liked to get a 6th RB in this construction. This draft was a while ago. I try to be more mindful regarding my QB 2 now.

QB) Lamar, Maye, Dimes

RB) R Stevenson, Brooks, C Brown, Vidal, Irving.

WR) Jefferson, Adams, Flowers, Watson, Sutton, Wicks, Polk, Hyatt

TE) Andrews, Otten


by mongidig P

I love having an elite QB and TE early and not have to worry about the back up until later.


That's one thing the last two winning BBM lineups had in common.

They both took a QB and TE within their first 10 picks. More specifically their builds within the first 10 rounds were

5 WR, 3 RB, 1 QB, and 1 TE


by newguyhere P

That's one thing the last two winning BBM lineups had in common.

They both took a QB and TE within their first 10 picks. More specifically their builds within the first 10 rounds were

5 WR, 3 RB, 1 QB, and 1 TE

That's interesting since it was a down year for a lot of top ten QB's and TE's last year.


by mongidig P

That's interesting since it was a down year for a lot of top ten QB's and TE's last year.

Tua and Muth were the first QB/TE selected so somewhere between rounds 8-10


I do think there's still merit to fading the super elite of QB and TE and going more mid tier.


by newguyhere P

Tua and Muth were the first QB/TE selected so somewhere between rounds 8-10


I do think there's still merit to fading the super elite of QB and TE and going more mid tier.

I feel like the price is too good to fade elite QB's and TE's this year.


by newguyhere P

Tua and Muth were the first QB/TE selected so somewhere between rounds 8-10


I do think there's still merit to fading the super elite of QB and TE and going more mid tier.

Qb is fine to do, prefer it on dk over ud, but it’s fine on both

Te is a huge mistake imo… you need a ceiling performance from your te to win the big w17 contests and it’s unlikely you’ll cobble a room together this year w the backend guys


by jimmymcgill8 P

Qb is fine to do, prefer it on dk over ud, but it’s fine on both

Te is a huge mistake imo… you need a ceiling performance from your te to win the big w17 contests and it’s unlikely you’ll cobble a room together this year w the backend guys

I mean it's not a guarantee any of the stud TEs are going to do that though.

I still think there's plenty of upside if you take anyone between Pitts and Goedert as your TE1.

Out of that elite group from Kelce to Andrews. Only LaPorta had a ceiling game in week 17, and his ADP was 131. Kelce sucked, Andrews didn't play, and Kincaid/McBride were decent but certainly not great.




by newguyhere P

I mean it's not a guarantee any of the stud TEs are going to do that though.

I still think there's plenty of upside if you take anyone between Pitts and Goedert as your TE1.

Out of that elite group from Kelce to Andrews. Only LaPorta had a ceiling game in week 17, and his ADP was 131. Kelce sucked, Andrews didn't play, and Kincaid/McBride were decent but certainly not great.



I consider Pitts, Kittle, and Engram elite te

Also, it’s not whether or not they did it in exactly w17 last yr, it’s their ability to do so.


Stefanski with some nice praise for Njoku today.


Feeling like BBM is really soft today

Qb - Lamar, Levis

Rb - Warren, Swift, Javonte, Charb, Wright, Pierce

Wr - Reek, Smith, Nabers, Nuk, Btjr, M Wilson, Boyd, Tez Walker

Te - Andrews, Goedert


by jimmymcgill8 P

Feeling like BBM is really soft today

Qb - Lamar, Levis

Rb - Warren, Swift, Javonte, Charb, Wright, Pierce

Wr - Reek, Smith, Nabers, Nuk, Btjr, M Wilson, Boyd, Tez Walker

Te - Andrews, Goedert

It's definitely softer than the last time I drafted about a month ago.

This is a very solid team.


BBM pick 4

The elite QBs were gone by pick 42.


QB) Caleb, Trevor, Will

RB) CMC, Pacheco, Brooks, Dowdle, Estime

WR) Waddle, Evans, Allen, Hopkins, BTJ, Legette, E Moore.

TE) Bowers, Fant, Likely


by mongidig P

BBM pick 4

The elite QBs were gone by pick 42.


QB) Caleb, Trevor, Will

RB) CMC, Pacheco, Brooks, Dowdle, Estime

WR) Waddle, Evans, Allen, Hopkins, BTJ, Legette, E Moore.

TE) Bowers, Fant, Likely

I like this a lot, but would’ve preferred a different te than likely w bowers (maybe Jonnu)


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